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See What Condition My Position Is In

2006-08-08T14:58:00.000-04:00

One of the most frustrating things in fantasy basketball is the seemingly arbitrary ways that players are assigned positions. What dictates a SG versus a G versus a SF versus a F versus a GF … well, let’s just say it’s tough to figure out. And while we don’t always agree with Yahoo!’s decisions (Yahoo! is, by the way, the preferred provider of fantasy services for FBB), we have to live with them.

A players position is often a huge deal in terms of his overall value, especially for borderline guys. And rookies can always be borderline guys. So, while things are moving slowly in the NBA right now, I thought it would be a good idea to see which rooks have gained and lost value based on what position Yahoo! has determined that they play:

On Guard!
Apparently, Yahoo! has decided that nobody is just a point guard or just a shooting guard in their rookie season. So, in addition to pure point guards Rajon Rondo, Marcus Williams, and Jordan Farmar, the rookie “Point Guard-Eligible” class includes: Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Ronnie Brewer, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Lowry, Shannon Brown, and Maurice Ager. All of these guys have “G” status, meaning they can be plugged in at PG or SG. With point guards always at a major premium, this means that draftable 2-guards like Roy and Foye become a touch more valuable. And it also means that guys who might possibly be draftable like Brewer or Brown become a little more tempting in the final rounds.

“Big” Losers
Remember how I was all pumped about Shelden Williams going to the Hawks? And I thought he’d have value as a C this year? Well, maybe it’s better that you don’t remember when I say stuff like that. Because not only has Williams sucked so bad in summer league that the Hawks had to sign Lorenzen Wright, but Shelden won’t even qualify at center to start the season. Yahoo! has pegged him as a F. Yeah, we’ll see how much he plays at the 3 this year.

Apparently, qualifying at center is a tough proposition in Yahoo!’s eyes, because Williams isn’t the only lottery pick to be relegated to “F” status. LaMarcus Aldridge has also been kicked out of the list of rookie centers, along with Mouhamed Saer Sene. Not that either of them should have much value this year, but this makes them both completely undraftable.

“Big” Winners
So who does qualify at C among the first-rounders? Two guys that you would expect – Patrick O’Bryant and Hilton Armstrong – as well as two that you wouldn’t. Josh Boone, though injured, as well as Cedric Simmons have both been awarded “FC” status for no apparent reason.

Remember, things can change during the year, and many of these guys could be GFs or FC by December. But things like roster flexibility are really important when looking for that one rookie sleeper. Good luck.

Transaction Review: Jamaal Magloire to Portland

2006-08-01T11:47:00.000-04:00

Perhaps the second-worst kept secret in basketball (behind the still-not-completed Al Harrington to Indiana deal), Jamaal Magloire finally got dealt to the Trail Blazers over the weekend. With four guys moving in the deal, and pretty serious PT implications for both teams, let’s look at the winners and losers from a fantasy perspective:

Big Winners:

Jarrett Jack, POR – In just a few short weeks, Jack has seen his competition for minutes in the Portland backcourt turn from lottery pick Sebastian Telfair and super-reliable Steve Blake to rookie Sergio Rodriguez and 13th-man Dan Dickau. Jack had a solid, if unspectacular, rookie campaign, and showed improvement throughout the year. The big question mark for Jack from a fantasy perspective is if he be able to contribute anywhere other than points and assists. His percentages are just average, he doesn’t shoot much from the arc (and only hit 26% from there last year), and he doesn’t show a great penchant for steals, a real downside for a point guard. Still, now that he’s got the keys to the ship, he’s a nice candidate for 30 mpg and could be a nice sleeper as a second or third point guard.

Andrew Bogut, MIL – Bogut is a great candidate for a breakout player this year, and the only question is if he’ll be over-hyped in your league and get drafted too early. Swapping Magloire for Ha Seung Jin and Brian Skinner in the front court means that Bogut will be counted on to play upwards of 35 mpg for the Bucks this year. Combine the uptick in minutes with the extra experience and Bogut is in line to become one of the most solid centers in the league. He doesn’t block a ton of shots, but he is a double-double waiting to happen, steals at a decent rate, and even passes very well for a center (2.3 apg last year). If you can get him as a second center, that’s a great pickup, but most likely he’ll be drafted as a first center by someone in your league. I’m not sure he’s earned that yet, but it’s a good gamble.

Big Losers:

Joel Przybilla/Jamaal Magloire, POR: Ah, nothing like two marginally decent centers on the same team to cancel each other’s value. Magloire showed that he can play next to another center when he did so with Bogut in Milwaukee, but that was because Bogut could, on occasion, move to the four. Przybilla is strictly a center, and so these guys will be in a pretty serious battle for PT in training camp. This is a wait-and-see situation, for now.

Steve Blake/Charlie Bell/Mo Williams, MIL – As always, we need to put in the disclaimer that here at FBB, we love us some Stevie Blake. We’re UMD alums, he was our favorite player while we were there, and if we were running an NBA team he would be our starting PG and get 40 mpg. That said, we are not running an NBA team. More specifically, we are not running the Milwaukee Bucks. So he won’t see 40 mpg. Still, the Bucks supposedly really held out for Blake during negotiations, meaning that they weren’t happy with just Bell and Williams at the point. So Blake will have a role, but likely not enough of one to have value, while he’ll also take away any chance of value from the incumbent guys.

Minor Winners:

Brandon Roy, POR – less people in the backcourt means more time for Roy, who actually could see some time at the point now.

Charlie Villanueva, MIL – Despite the crowd, Magloire saw 30 mpg last year, and now those minutes are for C-Vill to have.

Minor Losers:

LaMarcus Aldridge, POR – Wasn’t likely to have value anyways, but this should seal the deal.

Transaction Review: Mike James to Minnesota

2006-07-13T09:40:00.000-04:00

Even before switching teams, Mike James was one of the most difficult players to get a read on for this year’s fantasy draft. Let’s run down the facts, in exciting outline form!

- He had by far the greatest season of his career last year at age 30.

- He absolutely blew up after the All-Star Break, putting up first-round pick numbers (24.6/6.5, with 2.9 3’s and 1.2 steals), seeing 40.9 mpg.

- The only other time in his career that he saw even 30 mpg was 2003, when he played in 55 games for Boston (he also spent some time that year with Detroit). In those 30.6 mpg, he put up a paltry 10.47/4.4 with 1.6 3’s and 1.3 steals.

- He wasn’t the only Raptor to have a career year simply by being on the court all the time. After Jalen Rose got dealt:

-- Morris Peterson also saw career-high numbers. Peterson played 43 mpg after the All-Star Break, scored 20.7 ppg and hit 2.5 threes. Easily the best numbers of his career.

-- Charlie Villanueva got 10 more mpg after the break as well, up from 25 to 35, and saw a nice uptick in stats as a result.

-- Even Matt Bonner had a nice second half for the Raptors, seeing 26.3 mpg, and hitting 1.8 3’s.

Here at FBB, we preach one stat over all others – minutes. And the post-Rose deal Raptors are a perfect example of how court time dictates fantasy value. All of the guys above saw a huge increase in value simply by having minutes open up for them. So even with all the concerns about age and one-hit-wonder possibilities, let try and figure out how many mpg Mike James will see in his new digs.

(Quick aside: this was a moronic choice by James. His other two options? Play in his home town with Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, or play for a perennial championship contender in Dallas. The 4th year of the deal was so important that he had to go to Minnesota, the perennial underachievers? Whatever.)

Remember, his big minutes last year were just as much a result of no competition as they were a result of his strong play. Jose Calderon was injured for much of March and April, leaving James and Derrick “Who?” Martin to run the point. At the two, Peterson saw a lot of time, but MoPete also played the 3 some, giving James time to play at shooting guard as well. But the minutes will not be as available in Minnesota.

First, there are two established veterans in the back court, Marko Jaric and Troy Hudson. Then, there’s rookie Randy Foye, who’s been playing very well in the summer league, but is more of a two than a one. Finally, guys like Ricky Davis and Trenton Hassell can play the two on occasion. So it’s pretty likely that James will rarely, if ever, play much at shooting guard, and he’ll be fighting for time at the point.

That said, Marcus Banks walked into a similar situation last year (insert Rashad McCants, now injured, in place of Foye), and saw 30 mpg, and played pretty well while doing so. But 30 mpg isn’t 40 mpg. And James won’t be the floor leader like he was in Toronto, that job is unquestionably KG’s.

So after all that, what do I think?

I think James sees somewhere between 25 and 33 mpg. I think he’ll put up something like 16/4 with 2 threes and 1 or 1.5 steals. He’ll be a nice second PG, and worth taking in the 5th to 7th rounds in your draft. But, I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone take him in the 4th or even the 3rd after his huge second half last year. That person just won’t be me.

Transaction Review: Chandler, Mohammed, Przybilla, Daniels, Fisher

2006-07-06T09:45:00.000-04:00

Chicago Bulls trade Tyson Chandler to NOK Hornets for PJ Brown and JR Smith.

This is great news for Chandler, as he moves away from a crowded front court into a wide open one. He has yet to average 30 mpg, despite his massive contract extension, but that could change now. And if it does, you could be looking at your new leading rebounder in the NBA. Tyson was tied with Dwight Howard last year for highest rebounds per 48 minutes with 16.2. If he gets 35 mpg, he’ll be one of the top rebounders in the league – he was close to that last year with just 26.8 mpg. I have already mentioned that I’m not much of a fan of Hilton Armstrong, so 35 mpg is a fairly reasonable estimate for Tyson.

The real question for Chandler is his offense. I really think that his putrid scoring numbers were more a result of the system in Chicago than his inabilities. Remember, his second year in the league he scored 9.2 ppg on 53% shooting. He’s certainly capable of putting the ball in the basket, but he just got on Scott Skiles’ bad side last year (which has happened to others before). Look for his scoring to return to near double digits in NOK. I think Chandler has the potential to be a nice mid-round sleeper this year and could have a breakout year.

As for Brown and Smith, they’ll be nothing more than role players in Chicago. Brown may have been draftable in NOK, but not in Chicago where he’ll be fighting Ben Wallace, Tyrus Thomas, and others for PT. Smith may eventually be a nice NBA player, but it’s going to take some injuries to the guys in front of him for him to have fantasy value this year.

Detroit Pistons sign Nazr Mohammed

Mohammed has been the model of consistency over the last five years. In Atlanta, New York, and San Antonio, he’s been a guy that teams could count on to eat minutes at center, and do it somewhat productively. He’s been counted on for anywhere from 15-25 mpg depending on the situation, and provides some rebounding and some scoring, but that’s about it. I think that he’ll continue doing that in Detroit. He’s always been a borderline fantasy guy, and unless there’s an injury to one of the Pistons’ other frontcourt guys, that should be the situation here, too.

What the Wallace-for-Mohammed also does is opens up more PT (potentially) for Antonio McDyess. McDyess might get his minutes kept to the 20 or so per game that he’s been seeing simply to keep him healthy. But he could also get into the 6th man of the year award discussion if he starts seeing 30 mpg. McDyess could be a decent late-round choice in drafts, or a guy to watch for an early waiver-wire pickup next year.

Portland Trail Blazers resign Joel Przybilla

Przybilla may have stayed in place, but the pieces around him have been moving in a whirlwind. Exit Theo Ratliff, but enter Raef LaFrentz and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nik Tskitishvili came and went. Brian Skinner is still around. So why would his stats change all that much? He’ll continue to be a blocks machine and contribute a bit in rebounding, but as things stand right now he’s not going to see much more in the way of minutes. Portland is probably not done dealing, though, so this is a wait-and-see.

Dallas Mavericks trade Marquis Daniels to Indiana Pacers for Austin Croshere

Marquis Daniels immediately becomes everyone’s favorite sleeper this year with this move away from the Mavericks, but I’m not buying it. Other than steals, Daniels hasn’t shown himself to really be much of a fantasy asset even when getting 28 mpg. Look at last December, when he saw 35 mpg in Dallas. He shined in a few games, but his final stats for the month – 14.4/4.7/3.7 with 1 steal and .4 blocks – weren’t all that much to write home about. Sure he’ll be worth drafting and – probably – worth starting as a utility guy, but he doesn’t excel in any one category. I would hold off until the late rounds before taking him. DM would disagree. We’ll see.

As for Croshere, he’ll fill Keith Van Horn’s role – 20 mpg, not much value. Even with all the injury and suspension issues the Pacers have had over the past few years, Croshere has not managed to hold any real value, and that shouldn’t change here.

Golden State Warriors trade Derek Fisher to Utah for some scrubs.

I’m not going to talk about how terrible the Warriors are. This isn’t the place for that – let’s just look at the fantasy implications. Fisher in Utah, he’ll be a nice role player for them and could have some fantasy value. But it will be stretch for him to get more than the 31 mpg he got last year in Golden State, and odds are he’ll see closer to 25, meaning he’s more likely to be waiver wire fodder.

What this really means in Golden State is that if/when Baron Davis goes down again, Monta Ellis will be given the keys to the ship. I don’t think you can draft him necessarily, but when Davis goes down, he should be picked up immediately. We know he’s quick, and he should be able to contribute in steals, but his percentages and turnovers were pretty bad last year. We’ll have to see how much he improves over the summer before really passing judgement.

Transaction Review: Big Ben and Speedy

2006-07-03T21:29:00.000-04:00

Three days into the free agency period, I think we can agree that "very likely to return" doesn't mean a whole lot, as Ben Wallace looks to be the newest member of the Bulls. It's always fun when a signing like this shakes things up, and it's another example of one team you can't really blame for not wanting to overpay and another team who has no reason not to.

The Pistons recent success was built on a well-balanced team, both on the court and in the books. But after a team wins, the players want their share. It was initially reported that Wallace accepted at 4-year, $52 million deal from the Bulls after turning down $48 million from the Pistons, but it now looks like the deal from the Bulls is worth closer to $60 million, which makes a whole lot more sense. It just would have been very odd to see the Pistons pass on Wallace for a difference of just $4 million, especially in a league where guys like Dan Gadzuric and Etan Thomas sign $37 million deals.

Like the Stojakovic situation, it will be more interesting to see what the team losing the star does rather than what the star will do in his new digs. One of the first things that comes to mind with Wallace's departure from Detroit is, "Gee, it really would be nice to have Darko Mlicic around right now." That trade didn't make much sense then -- Kelvin Cato sure helped them out, didn't he? -- and it looks even worse now after Milicic showed flashes of that potential in Orlando. The Pistons will bring another big man into the mix. They really have no choice, as they simply can't go into the season with Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess and Dale Davis as their only three bigs. Joel Przybilla and Nazr Mohammed are really the only centers out there, unless you count my main man Jackie Butler, who is a restricted free agent. Word is they're already going after Przybilla and I'd be surprised if Joe Dumars didn't get his man. He would be as good a fit as possible at this point, someone who could crash the boards, block some shots and not slow the team down too much on offense. Check out the p40 averages for Wallace and Przybilla last year.

Wallace: 8.3/12.8/2.2 with 2.0 steals, 2.5 blocks, 51% FG on 6.4 attempts
Przybilla: 9.9/11.2/1.2 with .6 steals, 3.7 blocks, 55% FG on 6.9 attempts

Just saying that from a fantasy perspective, if Przybilla replaces Wallace in the middle, the numbers might not be too far off. Przybilla's never averaged even 25 mpg, so his ability to play big minutes is in question. And he's not even on the team yet, so let's deal with that if and when it happens. Antonio McDyess is likely to see a bigger role, but you know that the Pistons would love to keep him coming off the bench in order to keep him as healthy as he's been.

Word out of Chicago was that this was a Reinsdorf deal, not a Paxson deal, and if the 4-year/$60 million are true, that would make sense. Reinsdorf probably figures he has the money to spend, it's his money, his team gave the eventual champions fits in the playoffs, why not go for it now? It would make sense to explore a Tyson Chandler deal now, but it's no sure thing he'll be moved. It's not like Mike Sweetney has earned the trust of Scott Skiles, Othella Harrington is a bench player and Tyrus Thomas will need some time to adjust. Dealing Chandler might be the Bulls only way to add another significant player, though, as it looks like they've spent almost all of their cap space on Wallace.

Wallace in Chicago? It should look a lot like Wallace in Detroit. Maybe they'll give him a few more looks on offense, but it's pretty well established the type of player he is. Is he in a decline? It looks more like he has declined. His 01-03 seasons were when he was an otherwordly force in boards and blocks. Now he's merely dominant. His PER rating has stayed remarkably consistent over the past three seasons (17.39, 17.52, 17.54). His p40 averages over the past three seasons:

03-04: 10.1/13.2/1.8, 1.9 steals, 3.2 blocks
04-05: 10.8/13.5/1.8, 1.6 steals, 2.6 blocks
05-06: 8.3/12.8/2.2, 2.0 steals, 2.5 blocks

Of course, the big question is how will Wallace's minutes be affected by Scott Skiles. Kirk Hinrich has been the only player in Chicago to get 35+ minutes consistently in Chicago the past few seasons. But a lot of Skiles' maneuvering was because he had a young team and liked to shake things up and keep everyone on their toes. Next year's squad will be expected to compete from the beginning, though, and maybe Skiles will have a more defined rotation from the outset. Maybe.

Speedy Claxton finds instant value as the starting PG in Atlanta. It's a great situation he's heading into; after all, this is a team that started Royal Ivey in the backcourt for 66 games last year. He should see considerable minutes, but the Hawks might try to keep him in the 30-35 range since Claxton's never managed to make through a season without missing at least 10 games with injury. If you take his stats over the past two seasons and prorate them out to 33 mpg you get 13.4/3.2/6.1 with 1.8 steals. It seems reasonable to expect that from Claxton in the ATL next season. He should be a solid #2 PG, but his injury history makes him a slight risk.

Claxton's arrival should dent Joe Johnson's value a bit. Johnson spent a lot of time at the point last year and came through with a very strong 6.5 apg, placing him right in between Kirk Hinrich and T.J. Ford, for comparison. It will be very tough to repeat that number with Claxton around. Johnson will still have plenty of value and can likely be considered toward the end of the second round.

Transaction Review: TJ, Villanueva, VladRad and Tim Thomas

2006-07-03T10:17:00.000-04:00

Keeping an eye on who’s gaining and losing value as players switch teams …

Milwaukee Bucks trade TJ Ford to Toronto Raptors for Charlie Villanueva

This is a nice move for Ford, who had a mini-breakout year last year. He will be given the keys to the show in Toronto, who will be looking for scoring from Ford as Mike James will likely be elsewhere. I’d expect a slight uptick in points to maybe somewhere in the 15-16 range, and maybe even a few more threes as well.

I’m not sure that this is a great deal for Villanueva. In Toronto he was developing nicely as a sidekick for Chris Bosh, and with James leaving he could easily have been the second-leading scorer for the Raptors. Still, he should see at least 30 mpg in Milwaukee and get his fair share of threes, steals, and blocks, meaning he’ll maintain his calue from last year, if not improve on it slightly.

The big question still out there is whether or not the Bucks are really willing to head into the season with Mo Williams and Charlie Bell as their only options at the point. Look for them to get a point guard back when they inevitably trade Jamaal Magloire.

Los Angeles Lakers sign Vladimir Radmanovic

Radmanovic is going to keep being himself – a stay outside, shoot threes, don’t rebound seven-footer. At this point we know what we can expect, and it’s not worth hoping for a breakout year from VladRad anymore. Still, when he’s on, he can pour in two triples a night, and that makes him worth drafting, particularly now that he’s playing next to Kobe Bryant. Kobe does have a knack for drawing defenders off the perimeter, opening up threes for his teammates – just ask Smush Parker and Brian Cook, two guys who would be virtually useless if they didn't have Kobe dishing them the ball on the perimiter. Vlad might post a career-high in threes, but to ask for any other value from him is just unrealistic at this point.

Los Angeles Clippers sign Tim Thomas

It only takes one sucker team to make Tim Thomas an overpaid, underachieving player. And just when you thought the Clippers were done being suckers, they came through and overpaid for Thomas, giving him $6 Million a year for 4 years. Keep in mind, this is a guy who the Bulls didn’t even want hanging around in the locker room. But after three good months with the Suns (where, honestly, everyone plays great), that was enough for the Clips to throw out some pretty big bucks. Thomas will take over where Vladimir Radmanovic left off, and if he can stay motivated will be a borderline fantasy player. Odds are he will continue his on-again, off-again relationship with your league’s waiver wire, showing potential every so often, but never really establishing himself as a consistent asset.

Transaction Review: Peja Goes to New Orleans, er, Oklahoma City

2006-07-02T01:15:00.000-04:00

Peja Stokavoic's signing with New Orleans is a surprise, but in lots of ways it makes sense. The Hornets had some money to spend and when a team like that has the cash ("a team like that" meaning not your typical top free agent destination), they have to use it when the opportunity presents itself. For all the times we heard it was a lock that Stojakovic was returning to Indiana, it never made all that much sense. His total disappearance, due to injury, in the playoffs certainly couldn't have been looked upon too fondly and the team has spent its last two first round picks on SFs. Indiana may have a big hole in their offense next season, but they smartly didn't give a near-max contract to a 29-year old player who has had a single great season in his career and has been rather ordinary the past two seasons. John Holinger's PER stat isn't the end-all, be-all for a player's value but it was good enough to recognize LeBron James, Paul Pierce and Carmelo Anthony as the top three SFs in the league last year. Stojakovic ranked 15th at the position, right in between Hedo Turkoglu and Ruben Patterson. Just sayin'...

Granted, Stojakovic looked more like his old self during his time in Indiana, with his FG% returning to a respectable level while showing an increased tenacity on the boards. But even in a league where you have to overpay to get players, paying $13 million per season for a guy like Stojakovic, who isn't going to get any better from here on out, seems a bit much. All that said, it does make the Hornets a pretty intriguing team next season, and has some very serious fantasy implications on both teams.

The Hornets have their superstar in Chris Paul and now have two legitimate complementary near-stars in Stojakovic and David West. The fact that Paul and West are still on their bargain rookie contracts makes Stojakovic's contract more reasonable for the Hornets. When it's time for West and then Paul to receive extenstions, then things might get complicated. Those three should provide a vast majority of the offense for the Hornets next year. Having a reliable (hopefully) outside shooter like Stojakovic should make Paul even more effective. As a second-year player, he's a legitimate second-round pick. Lots of people were waiting for West to slow down as the year went on, but it never happened. West doesn't project as a dominant offensive player -- he topped 25 points just four times last season -- so it's not like Stojakovic's presence should have an adverse affect on his numbers. Instead, he should be able to continue to go about his business and be an especially strong #3 option. I do think he may be a bit overrated on draft day, just because he lacks a dominant secondary skill and you can't count on him to shoot 51% again.

What can we expect from Peja? It would be best if when looking at his career line you could cross out 2003-2004. All it's good for is clouding your judgment. He established career highs that season in points, rebounds, steals, 3PM and minutes. Maybe he'll do it again, but there's no reason to count on it. It would be fair to expect 20/6/2 with 2.5 3s. You might want to project more, and he might be able to pump in a few more points and 3s, but it's probably time to stop expecting another 03-04, or at least drafting that way. Basically, what he did with Indiana last season is a pretty good idea of what to expect next year. And don't forget that it often takes players a bit of time to adjust to a new environment. Joe Johnson was a big disappointment last Novemeber before turning it on in December and maintaining that pace for the rest of the year.

The real fantasy intrigue is back on Indiana. It would be shocking if Jermaine O'Neal went anywhere and he'll remain the top option, although his fragility the past couple years may make you think twice before spending a second round pick on him. Stephen Jackson is the apparent #2 option, but that's just not a role he's best suited for, at least for a team that considers itself a serious playoff contender. He's good, but just not that good. He's still a mid-round pick. I'm excited for Danny Granger's potential, but I won't be the only one. Granger's rookie season didn't look all that special-- he finished an ordinary 115th on the Player Rater -- but he did that while receiving just 22.6 mpg. He reminds me of Shane Battier in his ability to contribute just a bit in 3s, steals and blocks; with more minutes and his expected improvement, he's a threat to be a 1-1-1 guy. (It's worth noting that after taking just 93 3s in 78 regular season games, Granger attempted 16 -- while making 9 -- in just 6 postseason contests.) Prorate Granger's rookie stats out to 34 mpg and you get 11.3/7.4/1.8 with 0.6 3s, 1.1 steals and 1.2 blocks. And there's no reason why he shouldn't get better. It's never the safest strategy to draft a ton of guys and then need them to post better numbers than they ever have in the past to justify their draft position. And all it takes is one overeager person in your league in love with the upside of youngsters to turn Granger from a bargain into a bust. Reaching rarely works out. But Granger has a real chance to emerge as one of those do-it-all SFs that are becoming more common around the league.

Of course, it remains to be seen what the Pacers are up to over the rest of the summer. Al Harrington could be back in the fold, and that might render all that Granger talk a moot point. The Pacers are definitely in need of someone who can put some points on the board, and it doesn't look like that answer is going to come from within. Fred Jones and Sarunas Jasikevicius are nice players, but haven't really shown they're reliable top offensive options, and Granger's not really a scorer either. Expect the Pacers to make a move, but someone on the squad right now is likely going to have to step it up regardless.

2006 NBA Draft Fantasy Winners and Losers

2006-07-01T16:26:00.000-04:00

While most sites see NBA teams as the ‘winners’ or ‘losers’ in the draft, we think about things in terms of the players drafted. We’re not concerned, for example, with whether or not Cedric Simmons will help New Orleans make the playoffs next season, we’re concerned with whether or not he’s going to see 30 mpg and have any fantasy value. So with that, let’s see which players found themselves in a great situation, and which players might want to invest in a seat warmer:

Winners:

Adam Morrison, CHA – of the 6 or 7 places he could have gone, Charlotte is undoubtedly the best spot for him. This is a team who is dying for a leader on offense, and Morrison is going to be that man sooner rather than later. Remember, their leading scorer last year was Gerald Wallace, who only put up 15.2 per game, the lowest of any team leader, so they have points to share. Heck, even Jumaine Jones averaged double digits last year for the Cats, something he’d never done in his first 7 years in the league. Morrison is a safe bet for 15-20 points, and a good source of threes, and is my odds-on favorite for the Rookie of the Year. The only question will be if he can contribute anything other than points and threes. Look for stats similar to Rip Hamilton this year.

Shelden Williams, ATL – Williams right now reminds me of Charlie Villanueva last year – a guy who is certainly capable of stepping in and contributing right away, but because he got taken two or three picks before where he “should” have gone, he’s gotten a ton a negative press. This leads to a “steal” opportunity in your fantasy draft. There’s no reason he can’t step in and put up numbers similar to Emeka Okafor’s first year – 15/10 with 1.7 blocks. Combine that with his center eligibility, and Williams could be worthy of ‘first rookie taken’ in your fantasy draft.

Hilton Armstrong, NOK – First, a disclaimer – I don’t like Armstrong as a prospect. I mean, he’s a senior who has never really done all that much except block a bunch of shots his senior year. Prior to that he had trouble even cracking the rotation. Still, if he’s going to land anywhere, Oklahoma City is a great spot. Right now, he’s number one on the depth chart, which is tough for any of the mid-round guys to say. Whether he’ll play well enough to hold on to that spot is another question entirely, but the fact that he’s in with the Hornets means he’ll be worth a late flyer on draft day.

Randy Foye, MIN – Another guy that I don’t really like all that much but who landed in a great spot, Foye could easily see 25-30 mpg right off the bat, especially with Rashad McCants going down with an injury. Foye, to me, was really overhyped going into the draft – a big-time scorer who shoots 41% from the field? really? – but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on the court getting open looks from KG. He’ll be worth a risk in the draft this year as well.

Losers:

Tyrus Thomas, CHI – If there’s one thing Scott Skiles likes to do, it’s play with his lineups. And with Tyson Chandler, Michael Sweetney, and Malik Allen already on the roster, plus the likely signing of either Joel Przybilla, Ben Wallace, or Al Harrington, the Bulls have plenty of options up front. Thomas will be a project in Chicago, meaning he’ll see no more than 15-20 mpg his rookie year, and not have any fantasy value for a while.

Patrick O’Bryant, GSW – Two years ago, in the late lottery, the Warriors took a project big in Andris Biedrins. Last year, in the late lottery they took a project big in Ike Diogu. So this year, late in the lottery, they take a project big in O’Bryant. While Biedrins and Diogu have shown flashes, neither is worth drafting this year in fantasy leagues. O’Bryant shouldn’t be any different.

To Be Determined:

Brandon Roy and LeMarcus Aldridge, POR – Roy was my favorite player in the draft, and when he got drafted by Minnesota, I was thrilled, and instantly thought he’d be a leading candidate for ROY. In Portland, though, I’m not so sure. I mean, sure he’s still a great player, and I really like a lot of what Portland did on draft day, but the fact is that it’s a crowded rotation with very few veterans who know how to act like veterans. Aldridge is in a slightly better position because with Theo Ratliff gone and Przybilla likely gone, there’s not much in the way of centers. But with Zack Randolph and Darius Miles on the trading block in a major way, it’s a tough call right now. Let’s see how the next few months play out in Portland.

Andrea Bargnani, TOR – Now that Toronto has moved Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, things look a lot better for Bargnani in his first year. The fact is, though, we just don’t know enough about Bargnani. It’ll be interesting to see how he does in the summer leagues and in the preseason – that will go a long way towards determining his fantasy draft value.

Draft Recap!

2006-06-29T08:59:00.000-04:00

It's been awhile since we've checked in here at FBB, but we just couldn't resist taking a look at the draft from a fantasy standpoint. Here's what we were thinking as it all went down last night ...

DM: Ah, it's that time of year again. The time of year where Chad Ford runs up to strangers on the street babbling incoherently about mockdrafttradeupwingspanworkedoutwellmockdraft!!! Yep, the NBA draft, the sort of kickoff to the nba offseason. Sure, there have been a couple of minor trades, but tonite is the night that teams really start to shape their rosters for next season, so we thought we'd bring FBB out of its hibernation. BV and I will be trading e-mails back and forth throughout the evening giving our thoughts on the proceedings and perhaps whatever else is on our minds. We've never claimed to be draft experts but that means the only thing differentiating us from everyone who does claim to be a draft expert is that we're not lying bastards. Right, BV?

BV: NOT lying bastards ... yeah, that's the ticket. This draft is going to be very dangerous for fantasy basketball players, because it's so weak but that doesn't mean that you haven't heard a TON about these guys who are, at best, going to be moderately OK this year. Remember, back in 2000-2001, Mike Miller was ROY but only put up 11.9/4.0 with 1.8 threes, moderate fantasy value at best.
Still, we're off to a great start, with a trade of Sebastian Telfair to Boston, freeing up time for FBB favorite Steve Blake. He won't have enough time to get fantasy value, but will Jarrett Jack ?

DM: Yeah, that's an interesting trade between the Blazers and the Celtics. I know Telfair is still young and with plenty of upside (there's 1), but he better not eat into any of Delonte West's time. I suppose West can shift over to SG, but he's got his most value at PG. Perhaps it's just stockpiling assets for a possible Allen Iverson trade? Nah...

BV: The Raptors have 14 - FOURTEEN - people in their draft room. and that was just on-camera. impressive. and those 14 people produce ...Andrea Bargnani. Fran Fraschella says he'll contribute to the team ... but, i dunno. first year? not likely. I won't be drafting him, that's for sure. And I'm still not sure there's room for both him and Villanueva.
I actually just counted 16 people in that room on the second take.

DM: Yeah, unless he has some sort of monster preseason, I would think that Bargnani would have the lowest ever average draft spot in fantasy leagues for a #1 overall pick in his rookie year. Still, Colangelo has earned a bit of leeway after making over the Suns. So the Bulls draft LaMarcus Aldridge for the Blazers it would seem. Jay Bilas likens him to Chris Bosh, but that might be a bit of a stretch. Channing Frye with more blocks maybe? I dunno. With Theo Ratliff gone, Joel Przybilla maybe gone and Raef Lafrentz fragile, Aldridge might be in for a decent amount of PT in Portland. If he can pass Ha Seung-Jin on the depth chart, that is.

BV: well, first of all, the fact that the blazers traded up to 2 and DIDN'T draft the stache is an absolute embarrasment. That said, Aldridge indeed seems due for a good 25-30 mpg if he can earn it, and assuming he qualifies at center, that means he'll be worth a mid-late round pick.
and speaking of the 'stache, there he goes to charlotte, which is really a great place for him. other than raymond felton, there's not a pure scorer on the bobcats, who i like to make the playoffs this year - yeah, you heard me. he and felton provide scoring, and if emeka okafor and gerald wallace stay healthy, they'll be able to cover for him on defense. but from a fantasy perspective, morrison should be good for at least 12-15 ppg this year ... but will he contribute anything else?

DM: Morrison does have a chance to establish himself as a top option on the Bobcats, but the Bobcats are one of those teams on which minutes can be an issue. There were a whole lot of players in that 20-35 mpg range last year, so consistency might be an issue. It'll probably be trendy to call Morrison an overrated fantasy prospect at this point, but I'm just never sold on drafting rookies with fairly high expectations.
Did Dan Patrick just make a Wilco reference?
As expected, Tyrus Thomas gets picked by the Blazers, for the Bulls. LSU underclassmen, freakish athlete, attack the basket ... too much like Stromile Swift for my liking.

BV: YES Dan Patrick made a Wilco reference!!
Ty Thomas in Chicago ... that's fine. But he will never see consistent minutes enough to play. Skiles can and will be ruthless with minutes. But what i don't understand is, why did they go after Viktor Khryapa? I mean, trade down and get a piece, by all means, but i don't understand how that piece fits.

The Hawks, here's the thing. Shelden WIlliams is a GREAT pick for them, for sure. In fact, he could very well be ROY there. but why not move down a pick or two (or three) and get him then? If i'm Minnesota or Portland or Houston, I'm salivating over Brandon Roy right now.

DM: The Hawks are such a reactionary franchise, which really isn't the way to be in a league that rewards long-term planning. They thought they needed a star, so overpaid for Joe Johnson. Wanted the "most upside" last year and went with Marvin Williams. And this year they clearly wanted the "solid pick" and went with Shelden Williams. His presence might hurt the value of Zaza Pachulia, but that remains to be seen. Williams' fantasy value is tied into his blocks, but remember that in his rookie year, college blocks machine Emeka Okafor averaged only 1.7 bpg. Very good, but not really a difference maker as a center.
Well you can stop your salivating now, BV. The Wolves grab Brandon Roy, who has turned into everyone's favorite pick over the past week or so. But that's some reactionary thinking, too, as Dwyane Wade's emergence as the star of the league will make anyone who at all resembles him more appealing. The Wolves backcourt is a mess. Marcus Banks was a non-factor in Boston and managed 31 mpg once he got to Minnesota. Roy will certainly be one to watch.

BV: Agreed about Roy. Meanwhile, the Blazers make the right choice, finally, with Randy Foye. So they'll have two lottery picks in Aldridge and Foye, got rid of Khryapa, Telfair and Ratliff ... but they STILL haven't moved Miles or Randolph. I don't think we're done dealing this summer with portland.

Here's my quick-fix ranking of the first seven picks in terms of fantasy value right now:
1. Brandon Roy
2. LeMarcus Aldridge
3. Randy Foye
4. Adam Morrison5. Shelden Williams
6. Andrea Bargnani
7. Ty Thomas

DM: It's going to take a lot of work to get rid of Miles or Randolph, that's for sure. And man is that a lot of money they are paying to those two and Raef Lafrentz over the next few years. The Blazers selections this year remind of the Bobcats last year, going for upside and solid college performance at the same time. The volatility of the Blazers might make me put them behind Morrison on that list. Rudy Gay ... sure. He might develop into an all-star, and Jerry West wants someone to eventually emerge as a reliable second option behind Gasol, so it works there. Shane Battier in Houston, I like it a lot. He's always an underrated fantasy contributor and might be able to increase his 3s as Houston players gets lots of open looks with McGrady and Yao often double teamed. Now we move into the portion of the draft where I stop knowing anything about these players.

BV: Shane Battier just vaulted up the fantasy boards going to houston. Remember Jim Jackson in Houston, when every time on offense he would just settle into the corner and chuck threes whenever the ball went to him? He hit 2 treys a game doing that, and he was at that point 34 years old and had never averaged more than 1.5 threes at any point in his career before that. That's what Battier is going to do in houston, but his defensive stats and rebounding will make him a great value. He was a borderline player the last few years, now he's a surefire fantasy starter.
Patrick O'Bryant in Golden State? Whatever. I'm sure they'll like his cheesecake. I'm also sure we'll never hear from him again.

DM: The O'Bryant pick is a classic, "We don't really need anything and there's no one we particularly like, so let's just draft the tallest dude and see if he pans out."
The Wolves trade Roy straight up for Foye? That's confusing on many levels. There obviously has to be something else in that deal or else the teams would have just drafted the players they wanted. Right?
Alahu Akbar, we have our first surprise! Saer Sene to the Sonics. Hard to understand this one. The DeSagana Diop comparison is easy and we saw how that worked out for the team that spent a lottery pick on him. Robert Swift, Johan Petro and Saer Sene. Makes me feel good about the Wizards status in the middle.

BV: Good. get out of my face, JJ Redick. Go to Orlando and go away. and boy, dick vitale is thrilled as expected. did you see the smile on his face?! oh man, quote of the night - "You'd better give me some free tickets JJ, after all the publicity I gave you!" man, NO KIDDING. Really though, Redick could/should put up numbers similar to mike miller when he was a rook in memphis. i won't draft him, though, on principal.
Yeah, Golden State and Seattle both made "eh, i guess so" picks, as expected. we'll see them both in the lottery next year, huh?

DM: I'm definitely going to avoid Redick, not just on principle, but playing in a league with people who are extremely familiar with the ACC, he's bound to be overrated. I just have a hard time believing he'll be able to physically keep up with NBA guards. What's the over/under on what percentage of Redick's shot attempts will be 3s next year? I'll put it at 78.
Hilton Armstrong ... like I was saying before, um, sure? It would be surprising to see anyone drafted from here on out be a contributor to your fantasy team next year, at least early on in the season. Does that sound about right, BV? And back to Battier for a moment, can't you see Van Gundy falling in love with him and giving him close to 40 mpg? I can.

BV: well battier was already seeing 35 mpg in memphis, but yeah, i can see him getting closer to 40 a night in houston.

as for any more contributors being drafted, i think that's right, but right now the concern is the depth chart. remember, the stat we love most is minutes - and right now, minutes are up for grabs all over the place. So for example, Thabo Sefolosha going to Philly, will he cut into the minutes of Andre Iguodala, who was seeing 37 mpg? Will he cut the minutes of Kyle Korver, who was seeing 31 mpg, enough that Korver is no longer a spot starter for a fantasy team?

And with that, apparently Thabo is headed to Chicago. but you get the point - don't consider the player at this point, you consider who his minutes are going to affect.
Who do you see as the biggest 'winner' tonight so far, DM? Either a draftee or a current nba player? my pick is battier.

DM: You could just tell that Stern wasn't going to let Patrick get away with that one. I like how Stern even got Stuart Scott to ask Tyrus Thomas about any advice he got from the chick that was the #1 pick in the WNBA draft.
Ronnie Brewer to Utah ... it seems like the Jazz have drafted tons of players over the past few years but none of them ever get any sort of extended shot, which is no doubt in part due to Jerry Sloan. Wingspan, slasher, basketball IQ ... lot of buzzwords around him, but we'll see what happens. Big winner of the night, I might say Adam Morrison. Not because I think he will necessarily be a stud this year, but because of everyone drafted tonight he seems like the only one who could legitimately turn into his team's #1 scoring option in the near future.

BV: switching roy and foye, i don't like it. I think minnesota had the best player, but apparently they like foye more. looking at how good their scouting is, i don't trust it.
You say that at this point nobody drafted is going to have an impact, but in NO, Cedric Simmons and/or HIlton Armstrong could have an impact on that front line. It's not like NO is going to compete this year, and with PJ Brown in the last year of his contract, why not just play the youngsters? looking at the salaries on hoopshype.com, i can't believe how much the hornets are going to be under the cap next year. so just keep developing the youngsters, right?

DM: Rodney Carney ... I was getting him confused with Ronnie Brewer all week. Swingmen from southern schools and all that.
I think what I said was that nobody would have fantasy value at the beginning of the season. Did I say that? I don't remember. But yeah, there's always a chance someone will emerge as the season goes on, and Simmons and/or Armstrong could be those guys. I just don't see it happening at the beginning of the season. Only a couple more picks until our Wiz are up...

BV: Shawne Williams to the Pacers? Bad move. They needed a point guard and I really thought that they would take the other WIlliams here, as in Marcus. I don't really think that he fills a need for them either, y'know? They've already got Granger at the 3. What this really says is that they don't really expect to re-sign Peja.
As for the Wiz, they had better take Williams. Take the guy that falls to you, that's what I say. He coulda gone top 10 and nobody would have blinked. blunk?

DM: I don't understand the Shawne Williams pick either, but it's clear that a few teams at this point have gone out of their way to not pick Marcus Williams. Shawne won't see too much time this year it would seem, which looks like good news for guys like Sarunas Jasikevicius, Danny Granger and Fred Jones.
Well, Chad Ford was right for once. The Wiz go with Olexsiy Pecherov, a guy who looks even skinnier than me and gets bonus points for crazy ass first name spelling. So now the Wiz have both Petrov and Andray Blatche in the works. We'll see how that goes. I wouldn't have minded Marcus Williams myself, but oh well.

BV: Well, on the TV they spelled it with a "k" and not an "x", but i really don't think there's any chance he'll have a fantasy impact year. As for Quincy "Ooby" Douby, remember when Mike Bibby went down and Bobby Jackson was a fantasy stud for like 2 months? I'm just saying, it could happen to ooby douby too ... by.

DM: I will say that it's about damn time the Wizards got a European player. They were among the last holdouts, weren't they? Quincy Douby should always be introduced by Adam Sandler. "AH-QUIN-CAY DOOOOBY-DOOOOBAY-DOOOO!!!"
Who? What? Ronaldo Balkman? Chad Ford had him going at #53. And he goes #20. And the draft is Isiah's strong suit, right? It's going to be a fun year in New York. Congratulations to the Balkman family -- you're millionaires!!!

BV: I have nothing to say about balkman, as for the brian grant trade, addition by subtraction for the suns ... i guess. his contract isn't all that big though, right? i don't really understand that one. I think this though - if you're looking for a guy who could have a major impact right away being drafted this late, it's rondo. He could very easily start over sebastian telfair - who's pretty injury prone - and average 6-8 apg. I'd say that depending on how the preseason shakes out, rondo could be worth a last-round pick.

DM: It's nice that Rondo has a "special" talent, that being his rebounding ability for a PG. Granted, that's sort of negated by his lack of an outside shot, but still, it's something. You always need to look for that sort of competitive advantage.
Marcus Williams finally goes, to the Nets. Free Dells for everyone! Maybe an heir to Jason Kidd? Attitude problems, out of shape, pure point guard -- maybe a little Rod Strickland there? Just throwing ideas out there. Hard not to like the Nets choice here, and he could keep Jason Kidd's minutes down, but of course that could keep him in more games.

BV: The Nets, they scored on one with Williams, but I think they blew the other one with Boone. But you know what? If he can take time away from Jason Collins, that's fine with me. Collins is one of the ultimate minutes wasters in the league, so if Boone can step in and take up 15 mpg or so from the get-go, he might earn himself more minutes fairly quickly with good play.

DM: Boone does seem like a bit of a reach. I'm not convinced he'll be all that much better than Collins, really. But at this point in the draft it's hard to really complain too much. And it'll be an easy story in New Jersey, drafting to two Connecticut guys, yadda yadda.
Lowry's a pretty good pick for Memphis. Stoudamire is coming off of serious surgery, Chucky Atkins is up there in age, so maybe Lowry should be able to at least give them some minutes this year and maybe develop into something bigger. He averaged 2.3 steals in 29 mpg at Villanova last year. Just something to keep in mind.

BV: Here's what I'm talking about when it comes to PT. Shannon Brown is going to get his minutes from Larry Hughes and Flip Murray, and that means both of those guys are going to take a dip in fantasy value. That's going to be an interesting situation to watch.
Agreed about Lowry. I believe Atkins is a FA, so he certainly could see serious minutes. It's no surprise that we love point guards here at FBB, and the ones taken here in the late first are all an injury away from seeing major minutes and having a chance at major value.

DM: Atkins a FA? Well, I think Murray is a FA. So take that!
The Lakers make a hometown pick and go with Jordan Farmar. I was one of those people who picked UCLA to go far in the tourney so I watched most of their games and while I do like Farmar, he seems like a guy that could drive Phil Jackson insane with unnecessarily showy play. Reminds me a bit of Sebastian Telfair, for whatever that's worth. I'm getting sleepy.

BV: just a few more picks ... and maybe another trade!

ok, so the suns took their two picks and traded them away - for cash? really? i guess that means that they're going to try and re-sign Marion after all? I dunno about all that. I mean, they could certainly have used some help SOMEwhere, right?
As for Portland, who the hell knows. In fact, i might write a column in the next few days that will go over their new roster, which certainly is still in major flux. but adding another point guard doesn't seem to make much sense.

DM: It is interesting that the Suns ended up going out of the draft altogether. I mean, this was the team that was using a 7-man rotation in the playoffs. Maybe they have something else planned.
Dallas is a hard team to find value on since they are so deep, but Ager seems like a nice pick. I was pretty bummed the Mavs didn't pull out the championship. And that will have to go down as a pretty big choke. They were just a few possessions away from putting away that Game 3. Seriously two more buckets the game, series and season would have been over. But they couldn't do it and then forgot how to shoot. Funny how Shaq was the fifth or sixth best player on his team in the championship clinching game, too. Knicks up next. After that last one ... maybe it's Nik Caner-Medley time!

BV: I also like the Ager pick. there's been talk that marquis daniels is on the outs in dallas, and this sort of works with that idea.

Here's the role that Mardy Collins is going to play in New York. Isiah's gonna get real mad at some halftime and yell, "FINE! Stephon, Steve, I've had it with you two! you're sitting on the bench for the second half. Who's left ... oh yeah! Mardy! You're in!!"

Ah, the last pick. Portland takes Joel Freeland, the tall Brit. sounds good to me.

I'll have more on portland later this week. I liked Roy the best coming in, but I don't know about him anymore. We'll take a closer look.
Anyhow, the big winners? Foye, Morrison, Shelden Williams, and Battier. DM, any final thoughts?

DM: Chad Ford is reporting that Stromile Swift was part of that Rudy Gay/Shane Battier trade, heading back to Memphis. That might be one of the more interesting aspects of this draft so far. I'm sure there will be more people predicting a breakout for him, but it's just hard to see at this point.

Your Turn … and Thanks.

2006-04-19T10:53:00.000-04:00

What a year it’s been here at FBB. We’ve watched in awe as Kobe Bryant poured in 81. We’ve watched in anger as Larry Brown tore apart the New York Knicks and ruined the fantasy value of about 10 players over the course of the season. We’ve watched with disappointment as one stud after another – even model-of-consistency Kevin Garnett - shut it down in the final two weeks of the season. We’ve watched with excitement as Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Boris Diaw and Mehmet Okur made “The Leap.” We’ve watched with confusion as Samuel Dalembert made the leap, and then leapt backward just as quickly.

And as our first full season of blabbing about fantasy basketball winds to a close, we’re already putting an eye towards next year. That’s where you guys come in. Unquestionably, my favorite part of this season has been reading all of the great comments we’ve had on this blog. You all have a bunch of great opinions and insight, and yesterday was a great example, as I decided against doing the Pick n’ Play, and then Jeremy came through with a great comment on guys to pick up for tonight. So now that we’re just about closing down for the year (DM will have a last post tomorrow), my question for you is this:

What do you want from FBB next year?

What’s worked for you this year? What hasn’t worked? What would you like to see more of? What are you seeing too much of?

You can either post a comment about it below, or you can always e-mail us at the address up at the top of our sidebar. But we’d love to know what we can do to make this site a better resource. We’re also considering taking the site off of blogspot, so if there are any other tools or things you’re interested in seeing, let us know – use your imagination!

Tomorrow, DM will have his wrap-up post, and we might throw in a post here or there during the playoffs and around draft time, but this is it as far as a regular post for me this year. So good luck to everyone tonight, and thanks for reading!

Crawling to the Finish Line.

2006-04-18T11:16:00.000-04:00

Is it just me or has the end of this year been worse than most? I mean, my starting lineup just two weeks ago included Jason Richardson, Ricky Davis, David West, Yao Ming, and Brevin Knight – all of whom are unstartable due now due to injury, either fake or real. I also have Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace, who have been playing half-time. So the only two guys on my squad that I can safely start are Andre Iguodala and Jermaine O’Neal – and I picked up O’Neal on waivers just before he came back. That’s two guys that were drafted at the beginning of the year that I can start right now. Yikes.

The point is, teams are in total chaos right now. Both in the NBA and in Fantasy. And with just one more day to make moves and pick-ups, you’re looking at a far different strategy than what you had four months, four weeks, or even four days ago. So with that in mind, here’s what to keep in mind as you’re furiously adding and dropping 11th and 12th men:

1. Who’s got something to play for?
Right now we’re down to eight teams that have something to play for in the last two days of the season: Washington, Chicago, Milwaukee, Indiana, Memphis, both LA teams, and Sacramento. By tomorrow morning, that list could be cut in half. But teams with something to play for will at least be sticking to somewhat-normal rotations, particularly those in the East, where everyone is struggling to play against anyone other than Miami or Detroit. That means guys like Jared Jefferies, David Harrison, and Chris Duhon could be worth playing just because you know that they’ll at least get into games for 20-25 minutes. Still, you should wait until after the games tonight to make sure that these teams are still in the running for something before picking these guys up.

2. Pick your categories.
A player’s value is going to be different for every team. If you desperately need blocks, and up huge in points, you may be better off with Etan Thomas than Kobe Bryant. That’s an extreme example of course, but the point is there. And right now, we’re at the extremes. Don’t hold on to top-round picks if they’re not going to do you any good. And remember, if you drop someone today, it’s not like someone else will be able to pick them up before the season is over – they’ll be on waivers until the end of the year.

3. Know your opponent.
There are going to be teams out there with rosters like mine – filled with emergency fill-ins, sorta-injured studs, and a much depleted talent base. You need to be keeping an eye on the other teams in your league to be able to take advantage of those sitting duck squads. Some of those categories that might seem just out of your reach might actually be much more in play than you thought.

4. You Feelin’ Lucky?
OK, let’s face it. A lot of what happens tonight and tomorrow night is going to be completely at the whim of coaches and players. A guy could play 30 minutes or none at all based on how he feels when he wakes up in the morning. As much as I want to tell you put forth a ton of effort and read all the news sites you can, the fact of the matter is that going with your gut may be the best thing you can do. Got a favorite scrub? Think you have an inkling about a guy? Go for it. It’s just as good a guess as any other.

And good luck.

Oh, and go Wizards.

Pick ‘em Today, Play ‘em Tomorrow

2006-04-17T12:11:00.000-04:00

Remember how all season long we were telling you to stay on pace with your games played? Well, we hope you did. There are very few teams with anything left to play for as we get to the last week or two, and you see how not only do players call it quits early on, but they also call it quits early on in the games they actually play. Only a few more days left … here are some guys that might be able to put you over that proverbial hump.

Miami vs. Atlanta
The Heat have nothing left to play for and rested their stars for much of the game yesterday, even though it was an important game for the Bulls. Hey, it’s their right. It was a fantasy disaster, as Antione Walker led the team with 30 minutes and a whopping 10 guys played at least 15 minutes. That’s never good. Michael Doleac might actually be a decent option at center, as it’s hard to see Shaq playing more than 20 minutes again. If you need 3s, Jason Williams returned yesterday and will likely fire up a few. For the Hawks, Marvin Williams put up very nice numbers the past two games (20.5/8.0/2.5) but didn’t really get me any of the blocks I wanted. Oh well. Josh Childress returns tonight and should eat into some of his time and put up some solid numbers.

New Jersey vs. Philadelphia
Another game with absolutely no meaning. New Jersey will probably limit their Big Three to no more than 30 minutes, but their supporting cast is just so lame that there’s not too much help to be found. If you need to fill a game at center, Uncle Cliffy Robinson might not be a bad choice. He’s played at least 25 minutes in each of the last three and has averaged 11.0/6.0/1.0 1with a 3. Hey, it’s better than not using a game at all. Philadelphia’s a hard team to get a read on for the last couple games. After crashing out of the playoffs they have to be a dejected bunch, as well they should. If Stephen Hunter is still available he may be of a little value, but that’s it.

Milwaukee vs. Washington
Ah, a game with actual meaning. Both teams will be giving their best efforts as they try to grab the 5th seed in the East. Personally, I don’t think drawing New Jersey in the first round is as much of a death knell as people are making it out to be. Yes, they went on an incredible streak and are clearly the third best team in the conference, but you simply cannot put them in the same class as Detroit and Miami. I’d certainly like my Wiz to face Cleveland in the first round, but I won’t be too upset if they end up with the Nets. Anyway, since both of these teams are playing for real, you aren’t likely to find much help. All of Milwaukee’s starters should be long gone – maybe Jamaal Magloire is available. As for the Wizards, Brendan Haywood has had a couple of nice games with Etan Thomas out, especially in the blocks department. He’s swatted 8 in the past two games, so he could be worth snagging.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis
This game has some meaning, too. Sort of. It’s a weird situation out West. The Grizzlies currently hold a one game lead over the Clippers, but all that does is earn them a first round matchup with one of the three teams everyone thinks can win the whole thing, the Mavs. Meanwhile the Clippers are sitting in sixth with a prospective matchup against the Nuggets. So both teams might actually be playing to lose tonight. We’ll see. Jake Tsakalidis has been getting the starts the past few games, but Lorenzen Wright has been playing more minutes, for those looking for a center. Based on past experiences, I just assume that’s a position that people are scrambling to fill at the end. The Clippers are clearly content to finish sixth, as they barely put up a fight at home against the Sonics the other night. Shaun Livingston is your man if you’re looking for assists. He only had 3 in 29 minutes last game, but he could reach double digits with that time again.

Seattle vs. Sacramento
The Sonics are playing themselves right out of a top draft pick the past month, as they have moved ahead of Boston, Houston, Golden State and Minnesota in the standings. With Robert Swift done, Johan Petro is back as the starting center and maybe he’ll get a few blocks for you. Nick Collison has had some nice games since returning from injury, but even at this point in the season he seems a bit too risky. The Kings accomplished their goal and are in the playoffs for the eighth straight year. They have an outside chance at grabbing the seventh spot, but that involves Kobe losing at home to the Hornets, so that’s not going to happen. Expect lots of people to play 20-25 minutes. Kevin Martin was great for many teams earlier on, but then he got hurt and Bonzi Wells came back and he was rendered obsolete. He’s put up some decent numbers the past couple games and could be a good plug in for last week duties.

Head-to-Head's Up: 2006-'07 Draft Strategy

2006-04-14T16:07:00.000-04:00

As the season comes to a close this week some of you may be looking ahead to next season’s draft. For those in Head-to-Head leagues I have prepared a H2H draft strategy that differs from other standard strategies. Emphasis is placed on pursuing players who will help your team win specific categories each and every week, no matter who your opponent, while having a legitimate shot at winning the remaining categories. I wouldn’t recommend punting or forfeiting any category except for maybe points when using this "Head-to-Head Calibrated" Draft Strategy.

Here’s the gist of it: Avoid swingmen at all costs. SGs and SFs simply do not do enough to help your team in weekly H2H matchups. Most G/Fs do not make above average contributions in categories other than points and maybe threes. Resist the temptation to draft the Carmelos, Caron Butlers, and Rip Hamiltons of the league. Instead, aim to dominate four or five out of the eight categories by targeting Point Guards (assists, threes, steals, FT%) and BIG men (rebounds, blocks, FG%). If you end up with 3 or 4 top PGs and 3 or 4 top F/Cs then you will be primed to dominate assists, threes, steals, and blocks every week while remaining competitive in percentages and rebounds (with the conversely strong/weak contributions from your PGs and big men). The only disadvantage you’d probably be facing each week would be in the points department. Barring any serious injuries to your team or terrible luck, you will win your H2H matchup nearly every week by a score of 5-3, 6-2, or 7-1.

Do NOT draft any shooting guards or small forwards until the later rounds. Your first six draft picks should look something like this: PG, PG, PF, C, PG, PF. Swingmen are a dime a dozen with plenty of sleepers available late in drafts anyway. Unlike fantasy baseball where you want to make sure you draft quality players at scarce positions like second base and shortstop; in fantasy hoops you can still find guys at the end of your draft or off the waiver wire who can be everyday starters at the G/F positions.

The only SG/SFs I wouldn’t discourage you from selecting on draft day would be super-studs like LeBron, Kobe, Pierce, Ray Allen, and the Matrix. An argument can also be made for multi-cat contributors like AK-47, Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, and Josh Smith. The following are tentative top 20 lists for point guards and big men according to this "H2H Calibrated" drafting strategy:

Top Point Guards
1. Gilbert Arenas
2. Jason Kidd
3. Steve Nash
4. Chauncey Billups
5. Allen Iverson
6. Dwayne Wade (doesn’t shoot threes, but makes up for it elsewhere)
7. Chris Paul (see above)
8. Raymond Felton
9. Kirk Hinrich
10. Mike James
11. Delonte West
12. Jameer Nelson
13. Jason Terry
14. Tony Parker
15. Baron Davis (he’s lucky to crack the top 15)
16. Sam Cassell
17. Luke Ridnour
18. Rafer Alston
19. Deron Williams
20. Carlos Arroyo

Top BIG Men
1. Elton Brand
2. Dirk Nowitzki (threes are very nice bonus)
3. Yao Ming (fantastic percentages)
4. Pau Gasol
5. Chris Bosh
6. Tim Duncan
7. Jermaine O’Neal
8. Ben Wallace
9. Amare Stoudemire (higher if healthy)
10. Dwight Howard
11. Rasheed Wallace
12. Zydrunas Ilgauskus
13. Marcus Camby
14. Mehmet Okur
15. Brad Miller
16. Chris Kaman
17. Andrew Bogut
18. Chris Wilcox
19. David West
20. Antawn Jamison (hits the glass like a PF, and his recently developed 3-point stroke will make up for lack of blocks)

If you land 7 or 8 of these forty players (while waiting until the late rounds to grab a SG and SF) you should cruise to the top of the standings and an FBA championship. All that said, there are a handful of PGs and big men that don’t contribute enough in the necessary categories and should probably be left for other GMs to fight over. Take a look:

Point Guards to avoid:
Steve Francis / Stephon Marbury – Aside from the disaster that is the NY Knicks, which may get cleared up next year, neither player hits enough treys for a PG.
Brevin Knight – Allergic to threes and his job security will be in jeopardy next season.
Andre Miller – Can’t shoot from long range.

Power Forwards to avoid:
Emeka Okafor – Poor percentages and unable to stay healthy.
Chris Webber – Always an injury risk, plus his FG% and blocks have declined over the years.
Troy Murphy – Often considered a value pick, T-Murph is weak on defense and his FG% is a major liability. His three-point range is NOT enough to compensate.
Zach Randolph - Poor FG%, poor defense, poor attitude, poor knee, just downright impoverished.

Centers to avoid:
Shaq – Diesel’s FT% (and FT attempts) is so much of a liability that you will never win the category.
Jam Magloire – Poor percentages, mediocre blocked shots.
Zaza Pachulia – Poor FG%, weak defensive cats.

I’ll be sure to flesh out this H2H draft strategy quite a bit more during the run-up to next season’s draft. Best of luck to those of you still fighting for championships this season!

Pick ‘em Today, Play ‘em Tomorrow

2006-04-13T13:14:00.000-04:00

One week left – that’s it. Down to the nitty gritty. It’s time to check the standings and break it down – where can you really lose or gain? Keep an eye on the rosters of the guys you’re chasing, too – if the guy has, say, Kevin Garnett and Yao Ming, you’re more likely to catch him in blocks and boards than you thought. With that in mind, here’s who I’ve got my eye on while filling my unused games:

PG: Damon Jones, CLE
If LeBron does indeed miss his first game of the year, that will be 30+ points that will have to be scored with the rest of the Cavs. With Big Z still hurting a bit, and Larry Hughes still spotty, that scoring onus will fall on Jones, Drew Gooden, and Flip Murray. While the latter two are probably owned already, Jones should be on your waiver wire, seeing as how he’s sucked balls this year. What busts he and Donyell Marshall have been, huh? Anyways, if you need threes, here’s you man. He won’t help you anywhere else, even a little bit, but there are plenty of teams that need those 3’s this time of year.

SG: Tony Allen, BOS
Allen has been seeing extra time already with Wally Szczerbiak out for the season, but now that Delonte West is hurting as well, he’s a great option at the point. He’s posted multiple steals in 6 of the last 7 games, same with double-digit points, and he’s shot over 50% in each of those contests. He won’t give you assists unless West doesn’t play, which right now looks about 50/50, but he’s still a nice play.

SF: Justin Reed, MIN
You wanna see an ugly game? How about Minnesota (without Kevin Garnett, Ricky Davis, and Rashad McCants) against Houston (without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady) last night? Yikes. Last night’s game was probably watched by about 8 people, and that’s what it deserved. Still, it looks like Justin Reed has settled in to Dwane Casey’s rotation for the final few games, seeing 21, 26, and 32 minutes in the last three games. He won’t help you anywhere in particular but he’ll contribute a little everywhere except for threes, and is a fine choice to use up some games.

PF: Tim Thomas, PHO
Thomas has been on and off fantasy rosters ever since his move to Phoenix, and now is a great time to pick him up after he started and saw big minutes in his last game. Thomas is a classic “risk” player, but this late in the game your tolerance for risk has to be going up, meaning Thomas should be on a roster in your league by the time he hits the court tomorrow night.

C: Loren Woods, TOR
If he played enough minutes to qualify, Woods’ 3.35 blocks per 48 minutes would put him 10th in the NBA, just in front of Adonal Foyle. Woods has been wearing a suit more often than a jersey this year, but he’s gotten into the last five games and with Matt Bonner out for the year, he should continue to see at least 15-20 mpg and accumulate 1-2 blocks in each of those games, starting Friday against Detroit.

Pick ‘em Today, Play ‘em Tomorrow

2006-04-12T09:51:00.000-04:00

Only a few games on the schedule tomorrow, and you're running out of chance to use up those games.

Cleveland vs. New York
Anderson Varejao is a great one-category boost guy this last week. In his last four games he's averaging just under 10 boards per game, and it would be surprising to see Zydrunas Ilgauskas back in the lineup, even though Mike Brown says it might happen. The Puffy Haired One won't help you anywhere but boards, but since he qualifies at SF, if you have a game to use there, he should give you more than the norm there. If you're desperate for 3s, there's always huge 05-06 disappointment Donyell Marshall. He simply couldn't shoot this year. His PT was the same, his boards, steals and blocks were all pretty close to last year's totals. But his shooting fell from 44% to 39%, and it fell from 42% to 32% behind the arc. That’ll do it. Still, he’s always capable of hitting up to five 3s in a single game.

On principle, I refuse to recommend anyone from the Knicks.

Orlando vs. San Antonio
I'm going to give it up for the Orlando Magic. This is a team that should make the playoffs next year. OK, so that's really not saying much, but the Magic have won five in a row, with impressive victories against Dallas, Milwaukee, Detroit, Miami ... and, well, Atlanta. They solved the Steve Francis and John Weisbrod problems and have legitimate building blocks in Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson, and maybe -- just maybe -- Darko. And maybe even Hedo Turkoglu. It's highly, highly unlikely he's available, but if someone dropped him when it looked like he could miss some time -- hey you never know – grab him. He hasn't been as strong the past couple of games, but it's nice to see someone toughing it out in the final weeks, even without anything on the line. Turkoglu never shot above 42% in his first five seasons so his 45% this year may not last, but he's finally looking like a legit NBA player. Not a star by any means, but a nice complementary piece.

Remember when the Spurs signed Brent Barry last year and everyone was claiming that it was the most astute signing ever and he'd be the secret weapon that would lead them to the championship? Well, the Spurs did win it all, but it certainly wasn't because of Barry, who had the worst season of his career. That is until this year. So even though he's been the one starting in place of Manu Ginobili -- who might be back tomorrow, but we've heard that one before -- I'll suggest Michael Finley instead. Barry came through with 16/3/5 and 4 3s in 28 minutes last night, but that’s on the heels of a scoreless 30 minute performance. Finley has been the more consistent performer, as he put up 17/1/2 with 3 3s and a steal in his 28 minutes last night. Another person to consider is Bruce Bowen. He’s perennially one of those guys who always starts and gets minutes but never has fantasy value, but the last week of the season is a different best entirely. He blocked three shots, nabbed two steals and hit a 3 last night. He’s still playing his usual minutes, so he might be worth looking at.

Dallas vs. Phoenix
Blocks is probably the easiest category to make a late push in, so a forgotten man like DeSagana Diop becomes a wanted man in this final week. He has swatted 10 in his last three games, and has at least one block in 36 of his 42 starts. Marquis Daniels won't really help you in any one category but has been seeing around 25 mpg lately and is good for a bit of everything. He's one of my favorites -- put him in the right situation and he could be a real asset, sort of like Richard Jefferson. Solid percentages, won't really hurt you anywhere.

Mike D’Antoni has followed through with his pledge to reduce Steve Nash’s minutes, but it hasn’t been too drastic. He played 30 last night after getting 31 the previous night. Not as good as the 36 he’s been averaging this season, but still good enough to average 12 assists. This hasn’t really created any extra time for Eddie House, though. The shameless gunner (9.2 FGA in just 17.2 mpg) hasn’t cracked 20 minutes in his last eight games, so he’s not a realistic option, even though he is capable of hitting four 3s in 15 minutes. The musical chairs SF game saw Tim Thomas replace James Jones last night, so he might be worth grabbing for some 3s, but he’s still Tim Thomas. Remember how Jones and Raja Bell were very popular sleepers before the season started? Well things worked out rather well for one, but not the other. Bell’s consistency and good health have him just outside the top 50 on the Player Rater, while Jones is languishing at #137.

Pick ‘em Today, Play ‘em Tomorrow

2006-04-11T10:52:00.000-04:00

Who wants to vote to just end fantasy basketball one week early next year? I kid, of course. I love you fantasy basketball. But nonetheless, the end of this season has been absolutely murderous for fantasy players – is it just me, or does this year seem worse than years past? Personally, I’m dealing with Ricky Davis being shut down because he’s over 22 years old, Jason Richardson sitting because, well, he can, and Yao Ming legitimately breaking his foot. So who’s to be had?

PG: Tyronn Lue, ATL
Has anyone ever looked more like a Ferengi than Tyronn Lue? I mean, without using makeup? Ridiculous. Still, Lue’s return to the court has been very quiet, and he’s not seeing the minutes that he really needs to be effective, but he’s posted double-digit points for four games in a row, so that should count for something. He won’t help in assists, but for a one-game play tomorrow, you could do much worse. Other option: Keyon Dooling.

SG: Alan Anderson, CHA
Yeah I know, I'm reaching. But first the Bobcats dropped Kareem Rush, then they saw DM-fave Bernard Robinson go down with a sprained finger, and all of a sudden they've essentially got 4 guards on their roster: Raymond Felton, Brevin Knight, Kevin Burleson, and Anderson. Burleson never get any court time, and Knight has no business being anywhere near the 2-guard, so that leaves Anderson to play maybe 20 minutes tomorrow night against the Grizzlies. He put up 11/3/3 in just 17 minutes the other night, and he's not afraid to shot the three, so why not? Other options: Rashad McCants, Tony Allen.

SF: Rasual Butler, NOK
Here's a fun question to keep you up at night (or at your desk during the day): What does the "O" stand for in "NOK": Orleans, or the beginning of Oklahoma? Anyhow, a hurting Desmod Mason and David West means that Butler will be a fine option against Seattle's sieve-like defense. He's probably your best option if you're looking for threes and have games to burn at SF. Also, he’s an impending free agent, so a nice run at the end of the year here could pick him up some nice cash in the offseason. Other options: Chuck Hayes, Marvin Williams.

PF: Stromile Swift, HOU
Yao Ming going down might be killer for some fantasy teams (ding ding ding!), it presents an opportunity for others. Perennial disappointment, ex-FBB fave and current FBB least-fave Stromile Swift has a nice chance of having a decent game here while facing other FBB least-fave Eddie Griffin. Right now it's all about playing the odds, and this is a nice chance to take on Wednesday. Other options: Eddie Griffin, Austin Croshere.

C: Brendan Haywood, WAS
I’ve got a bit of a love-hate relationship with Haywood. This is the first year that he has really shown NO progress, and in fact may have regressed a little bit. He’s big, for sure, and can rebound and block shots when he wants to, but he’s also been a bit of a crybaby this year and has struggled for playing time a bit. But with Etan Thomas still hurting, he’s a nice option at C. Other option: Dikembe Mutombo.

Short and Sweet

2006-04-10T12:13:00.000-04:00

It’s getting down the wire in fantasy basketball land, so for the next week we’re going to keep it simple here at FBB and simply give you the goods. The goods being players you can pick up for the next day’s games to give you an advantage in these final days. Best of luck down the stretch.
Toronto vs. Miami
Derek Anderson – If you need a boost in 3s, Anderson could be your man. I watched him drop in a handful (that’d be five) on Saturday night as the Heat continued their dominance over my banged-up Wiz. He played 38 minutes in that game because Dwyane Wade was ill and in foul trouble, and he backed that up with 32 minutes yesterday in a listless home loss against the Magic. The Heat don’t really have much to play for right now – home court in a prospective finals matchup against Phoenix is the closest I can come up with – so Anderson might keep seeing more time as he continues to get into game shape.

Minnesota vs. Memphis
Eddie Griffin and Rashad McCants – All you fools in H2H leagues with championships decided in the final week. You’re titles are being determined by scrubs like Eddie Griffin and Rashad McCants! That’s just wrong. But if that’s how it’s going to be, then grab these guys. The Wolves yesterday were a perfect example of the value of the minute. We always say that even the crappiest collection of players imaginable – and the Wolves without KG and Ricky Davis are just that, although they did manage to beat the Hawks – will find a way to score 80 or so points and someone will have value. McCants was the main man on offense, pouring in 28 and taking nearly twice as many shots as any one else while playing 10 more minutes than anyone else. He’s going to look out for himself, so get him in there. As for Griffin, it’s simple – blocks. He racked up four last night and while KG’s competitive spirit might have him back in the lineup for this game, he might take another one off, giving Griffin a chance to swat some more away.

Seattle vs. San Antonio
Robert Horry – A bit of a reach here, but there aren’t many secondary options to be had. Brent Barry might be an option, but Manu Ginobili should be back and Barry did go scoreless in 30 minutes in his last contest. Horry has basically been mailing it in except for a few games this season, but it’s getting to the point where he needs to turn it on so he can live up to his Big Shot Rob reputation. He sat out the recent Dallas game, but in his last four games he’s averaging 1.3 blocks, .8 steals and 1 3. Nothing too great, but Seattle has this thing about not playing a lick of defense, so Bob might have a chance to put up some bigger numbers.

Chicago vs. New Jersey
Working under the assumption that Chris Duhon isn’t available in your league – and he certainly shouldn’t be since he’s been starting and putting up solid numbers for the past couple of weeks – there isn’t much to offer in this contest. New Jersey has one of the most well-defined rotations for fantasy purposes and the Bulls just don’t have much to offer that will be out there. If you’re feeling especially lucky and have a game to use at center, you can take a flier on Mike Sweetney, hope he gets off to a fast start and see if he can match the 14 and 6 he put up against Boston more than a week ago. But this is a guy who despite starting in eight straight hasn’t played more than 20 minutes in any of those contests and is averaging a meager 2 and 2 over his last two.

Phoenix vs. Sacramento
Leandro Barbosa – He was going to be suggested even before word came out that Steve Nash will see a decrease in minutes. Honestly, he should be long gone in your league as he’s checking in at an impressive #76 on the 15 Day Rater. Barbosa has proven to be one of the most accurate shooters in the league over the past couple of seasons, shooting over 48%, which is just stunning from a guard. Sacramento, as usual, has no one to offer as everyone on that team has long been scooped up. For those that held on to Bonzi Wells through his injury woes, you’ve been rewarded very well as he has come back as strong as ever, proving his early season numbers – especially those on the boards – were no fluke.

Golden State vs. L.A. Lakers
Monta Ellis – One of the most impressive of the second tier rookies this year has been the prep to pro guard out in Oakland, Monta Ellis. Thought to be a point guard, the 20 year old rookie has shown he is already capable of being a real scoring option in the NBA, averaging a not-at-all-shabby 14.7 points p40. With Jason Richardson out he saw 31 minutes on Saturday and put up a nice line of 13/5/5 with 2 3s, a steal and a block, offering a little bit of everything. Even if Mickael Pietrus gets another start, I’d probably go with Ellis anyway. Speaking of a little of everything, that’s what Luke Walton gives you, and he made his second start of the season yesterday and put up a line of 13/7/2 with a steal and a 3. In four April contests he’s averaging 9.8/5.5/2.8 with 1.3 steals and 0.8 3s on 51% shooting. If you’re looking for single category help he’s probably not your man, but if you just need some solid production, go for it.

Head-to-Head's Up (4/10-4/16)

2006-04-07T14:42:00.000-04:00

It’s Spring Break… Time to go WILD! No, no, no, put your shirt back on. This is the last full week of the NBA regular season, and you may want to use some unconventional tactics in your head-to-head matchup this week. Sure, you got your super-studs and regular starters, but there’s always a question as to those last couple guys you decide to plug in your lineup. Be sure to analyze your opponents’ strengths and weaknesses and prepare to take advantage. Blocks and threes are probably the best categories to target for the players at the end of your SLU to make a significant difference. Percentages and steals are unpredictable and fluctuate too much to bank on. Let’s take a look at 4/10-4/16.

Four Games: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Golden State, Indiana, LAC, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Boston, Charlotte, Denver, Detroit, Houston, LAL, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Jamal Crawford, SG – "He’s the most improved player I’ve ever coached. He’s as good a kid as I’ve ever been around. He does things for the team to a fault." Larry Brown told the New York Post after Crawford’s 37-point effort in a win over the Cavs on Wednesday. Excuse me coach… um did I hear you correctly? You are praising a six-year vet as the best ‘kid’ and most improved player you’ve EVER coached? A team player? Crawford is posting his worst averages in three years and is known for chucking rainmakers at will. Granted, Crawford is starting to shine with Marbury sidelined, but he has still been a big disappointment in Larry Brown’s circus this season. It isn’t so much an improvement but rather a classic case of opportunity… whenever a proven scorer like Crawford is given big minutes he will be very productive. In April he’s posted 25/4/3, 2 threes, 2.7 steals, 50%FG/92%FT in three starts. Those are the gaudy numbers I was hoping for when I selected Crawford in the fifth round this year. It may be too little too late for me (let’s not talk about my other ill-advised draft picks: Kurt Thomas, Al Jefferson, Eddie Griffin), but if you’ve got him now’s the time to use Jamal.

Hedo Turkoglu, G/F – Wow. 2005-‘06 has been a breakout year of sorts for Hedo even if it took injuries to a number of teammates to get Turk a regular starting gig. We now know that all he needs to be an everyday fantasy baller is consistent minutes. He’s averaging 18/4/3, 2 treys, 1.3 thefts, 53%FG/84%FT since March 15th. Numbers like that could make Turkoglu a 4th or 5th round pick next year. With Grant Hill likely out of the picture, next season may actually be Hedo’s true coming out party. Who else is excited about the 2006-‘07 Orlando Magic? (Arroyo/Nelson/Turkoglu/Howard/Milicic)?

Samuel Dalembert, C – Another volatile season for the injury-prone center, Slammin’ Sam is back in Mo Cheeks’ starting lineup, but still falling short of expectations (9/7/1, 1.3 blocks in four starts). Owners have been frustrated all season with Dalembert, as he can’t seem to stay healthy and remain productive for more than a few weeks at a time. Despite his ups and downs, Dalembert should be a solid contributor with four matchups next week. He’s a better play at center than Jamaal Magloire who hasn’t scored or grabbed double digit rebounds in eight games.

Darko Milicic, F/C – Most of his value comes in the form of blocked shots but Darko has shown some consistency on offense as well lately, scoring double digits in 6 of his last 7 games. 10-12 blocks from Darko in four games this week could be just what you need to edge out your opponent in a close H2H matchup.

Other 3-point shooters: Charlie Bell, Chucky Atkins, Vlad Radmanovic.
Other shot blockers: Joel Pryzbilla/Theo Ratliff, Erick Dampier.
Inexpensive Hybrids: Raef Lafrentz, Matt Bonner.

The Knicks Situation

2006-04-06T15:18:00.000-04:00

I was all set to take a look at more upcoming free agents to see if they did indeed experience a free agent year push, but after seeing the Knicks “play basketball” at the Verizon Center on Tuesday night, I felt I had to address them. As a Wizards fan (or rather a Bullets fan, since it was retro night) I was happy to see an easy victory, especially one that took the Wiz one step closer to avoiding Detroit or Miami in the first round. But as a basketball fan, I was disgusted. Simply put, the Knicks were a disgrace. Now I know this isn’t some revelatory news, but being there to witness it in person you get a different perspective. I was seated not too far behind the Knicks bench and it was just pathetic watching them. I was honestly offended. Every single player – except for one, who I will get to later – was simply going through the motions. Not even, in some cases. Larry Brown looked disinterested, at best, except when it came time to chew out a player. This quote says it all: "They came in with so much more energy, it was like the varsity against the JV," Brown said. "You've got to keep trying. Somehow you've got to find five guys who care enough to compete. I hate to say that because you take away from (the Wizards players) and what they did, but you've got to hope you have enough pride to compete. I never in my life thought I'd be in a position where you're begging guys to play." Steve Francis went one step further: "It's like a funeral, man," Francis said, his eyes welling up. "That's what it feels like."

So how does this relate to fantasy? Well, coming into the year the Knicks were something of a mystery. Everyone was concerned how the players on the roster would perform under Larry Brown. I had some skepticism myself but thought that the Knicks would actually be a decent place to find some value, at least with their established stars. The Great Larry Brown would identify his team’s strengths and instead of forcing them to conform to his style he would adapt, at least until the roster became more to his liking. Well, not quite. As BV recently said, this year’s Knicks have surpassed the Hubie Brown coached Grizzlies of a couple years ago as the most frustrating fantasy team in recent memory. At least with that Grizzlies team there was some rhyme and reason to what was going on. Brown may not have been giving his best players the minutes they deserved, but he had a plan, stuck with it and it led to victories. Brown and the Knicks have had no clue all season. Players will go from starting to DNP-CD. A great performance is rewarded with a trip out of the starting lineup. During the game the other night Brown didn’t even keep his starting lineup the same in the first half and the second half. Players were yanked for making the smallest of mistakes.

What can we expect next year? Well you know that Isiah Thomas has another trade or two up his sleeve. As it stands now it will be very hard to recommend any player on the Knicks. But let’s take a look anyway.

Eddy Curry seems like the one guy who is assured of not going anywhere. The Knicks were really the only team that wanted him, and with five years and around $50 million left on his contract, the Knicks are going to be stuck with him, for better or worse. Not to mention that Isiah gave up the potential #1 pick in the draft for the guy. Curry’s season has been exactly what we’ve become accustomed to – flashes of brilliance, some injuries and lots of lackluster play. Curry can score, no doubt. And to his credit, he’s missed only one game since the calendar turned. But it’s his fifth season and he still hasn’t shown the ability to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the court. He’s rebounding at his best rate of his career, which is encouraging. But even though he’s the centerpiece of the team (more by default than anything else), he’s still nothing more than a late-round flyer for a team looking to win.

Channing Frye is the guy who should be the centerpiece of the team, or at least something close to it. He’s done nothing but impress when given the chance to play this year, putting up p40 numbers of 20.3/9.1/1.3 with 1.2 blocks and 0.8 steals on excellent shooting. Not bad at all for a rookie. Brown jerked him around a whole lot before he went down with a season-ending knee injury. He’s the team’s most valuable asset, locked into a rookie contract for three more years. So you know that Isiah will deal him for some overpriced veteran in the offseason.

Jackie Butler was the one guy who actually showed up to play against the Wizards. The kid can play. He’s a big body and he knows how to use it, as we was constantly posting up and backing down defenders. He’s also a decent shooter, as evidenced by his 78% shooting from the line. He gave good effort the entire night, even though he was often overlooked by his teammates. He was still able to put up 22 and 8 in just 29 minutes and followed that with 12 and 9 in 21 minutes last night. This kid is an asset. Honestly, I see lots of parallels between him and Al Jefferson. They were born within two months of each other in Mississippi and are 6’10” and a hefty 260+ pounds. Jefferson’s got more offensive talent, but Butler can play. It seems that he’s ineligible to be traded right now, unless RealGM is lying to me, which is probably good news for Knicks fans, as Isiah would likely give him up for Shawn Kemp.

Steve Francis and Stephon Marbury clearly should not be on the same team. Something has got to give. Both were likely second round picks this season and it’s very hard to envision any teams that took them still caring about fantasy basketball right now. Marbury had always been one of the most reliable fantasy options around until this year, and his late-season “injury” might be the end of his time in New York. He and Larry Brown clearly hate each other – I don’t think that’s exaggerating it – and someone needs to go. Perhaps Brown will get so fed up that he’ll quit after the year – perhaps he’ll have more of his convenient “health issues” – but Marbury is more likely. Finding a team to take him will obviously be near impossible, and that’s even more the case with Francis, who is simply not much more than a slightly above average player.

Jamal Crawford is a pretty underappreciated player, I’d say. Sure, he misses tons of shots, but he’s an unquestionably great scorer, as evidenced by his 37 points last night. He’s a durable player and surprisingly reliable for fantasy purposes. Even this year, when he’s started just 19 games, he comes in at a very respectable #84 on the Player Rater, right in between Tayshaun Prince and Ben Gordon. That makes him the highest ranking member of the Knicks, except for Francis, who has only been with the team for 20 games. There’s something to be said about that, finding some value in a terrible situation.

Nate Robinson and David Lee look like they can be solid rotation guys, but probably not much more. Jalen Rose, Mo Taylor and Malik Rose are nothing more than paycheck cashers. Quentin Richardson – and Raja Bell, I suppose – is the best example of the effect a system can have on a player’s value.

Late-Season Surges

2006-04-05T11:12:00.000-04:00

We’re already starting to get a couple of questions about next year’s fantasy basketball draft. And that’s awesome. If there’s one thing we love talking about here at FBB, it’s fantasy basketball drafts. Just look at the 2 months worth of posts we had getting ready for this year’s draft. And don’t you worry, we’ll be just as obsessive (if not more so) for next year. Still, it’s never too early to talk about next year’s draft. One thing that I’m always wary of is late-season surgers. Guys who blow up over the last month or two of the season, come out of nowhere and increase their draft stock by a couple of rounds. This year, we’ve had a trio of big men who have really turned on the jets over the last month or two. Let’s try to determine who’s for real, and who’s a mirage.

Chris Wilcox
Unless you’ve been on Mars for the past decade, in a cave with your eyes shut, and your fingers in your ears, you should know that all of us here at FBB are University of Maryland alums. And while we’re not busy celebrating our ladies’ victory in the NCAA Tourney last night (sort of), we’re following our favorite Terps in the NBA. Chris Wilcox has always had tons of talent, but has never been able to put it together to be a great player. He was raw coming out of school, and by the time he was ready to be a full-time NBA player, he was stuck behind Elton Brand on the Clippers, and no matter how good he was, he wasn’t going to displace Elton Brand.

So he was stuck on the depth chart and had nothing to do but sit back and learn how to play the game. He showed flashes here and there, but couldn’t find the minutes to be a viable fantasy option. Then he got sent to the Sonics, and all that changed, and what has emerged is a fairly polished, effective big man. He’s shooting a career-high 60% from the floor since arriving in the northwest. The 80% from the stripe is great, but has to be an anomaly. Still, you can’t ignore 14.8 points and 8 boards while qualifying at center.

So where does Wilcox end up next year in your fantasy draft? You’d have to expect the Sonics to keep him around, as he’s a restricted FA. But here’s my problem. He’s a three-category player – points, boards, and FG%. Sort of a poor man’s Zach Randolph, who I wouldn’t draft before the 6th or 7th round. He doesn’t do anything for you in either defensive category, and while he’s performing great right now, he’s also probably maxing out his value. I’d say he’s a fringe player at best for next year – a nice bench player and third or fourth center.

Yao Ming
Boy, talk about a surge. Since the All-Star break, and returning from his toe surgery, Ming has put up 27.4/12.2 with 1.9 blocks with spectacular percentages. He’s been a top-5 fantasy player any way you look at it, and the top center in the game, both in fantasy and real life. With Tracy McGrady out for the year, Ming has taken over the Rockets and while they won’t be making the playoffs, his breakout alone has made this a positive season.

But will it keep up? Ming has always been a terribly difficult player to value. The potential is there for him to be a top pick, but when he didn’t live up to that, there was some backlash, and as of early this year a lot of folks – us included – were writing him off as a top-20 pick. But now that all ten toes are working properly, and T-Mac is showing up to games in a suit and not a uniform, there’s talk of him being a first-round pick.

I’m still skeptical. I think he’s a terrific second round selection, but as a first rounder? Once McGrady returns, Yao will have to take a step back. He’s still not as dominant in blocks as I’d like him to be as a first-rounder. But early in the second round, somewhere around 15 or so, I could see taking him there.

Carlos Boozer
Boozer certainly has his advocates here at the FBB comment section, but I’m not one of them. Yes, he’s on a hot streak right now for sure, racking up the points and boards. But, just like Chris Wilcox, he’s really just a three-category player. Sure he’s better than Wilcox in those categories, but he’s not dominant anywhere, he’s a liability in blocks, where you have to have help from centers, and I’m still not convinced he’ll be healthy for a full year. DM says he’ll be a fourth round pick, but you won’t see me picking him there. Boozer is no more than a complementary player, for a team that need points from the center position, and complementary players generally don’t get picked until the 6th round at the earliest. That’s where I’d put him.

Luke-Warm Pickups

2006-04-04T10:54:00.000-04:00

As we near the end of the fantasy season, it’s important to recognize that you’re not going to find those awesome pickups that you always spend time trolling for during the first half of the year. And as you look for players to fill those extra games you’ve got lying around, your standards have to drop a bit. Remember – even if you play a guy who gets 2 points, a rebound and an assist, that’s 2 more points, one more rebound and one more assist than you’d have if you just let an extra game go by. With that in mind, let’s see if we can find some guys who are good bets for a single game here or there:

Nate Robinson, G, NYK
Robinson’s got a couple of things going for him. One, he qualifies at both guard positions, which mean that he’s got added value for those filling games. Two, with Stephon Marbury still out, Larry Brown may be forced to play him as Steve Francis’s backup. And three, even if he doesn’t see a bunch of minutes, he’s still a good bet for a three or a steal as long as he gets on the court. Of course, he does have the major negative of being under the rule of Larry Brown, who may be the most hated man in all of fantasy basketball, even surpassing Hubie Brown of a few years ago. As of yesterday, Robinson looked like a great play. As of this morning, it’s a slightly different story as news comes out that he was nearly sent to the D-League a month ago. But Robinson, who plays three times over the next four days, is still a nice game-filler for those of you with extra guard games.

Antonio McDyess, PF, DET
With Rasheed Wallace being suspended for tonight’s game, McDyess will likely be counted on for 30+ minutes. But even when he’s seeing his typical 20 or so mpg, he’s still a nice asset. He’ll contribute in both defensive categories, rebounds, and recently he’s been on a bit of a scoring streak. Also, with the playoffs approaching, McDyess is a strong candidate for more playing time as Ben Wallace and Sheed get a little rest now that the playoffs have been clinched. It’s also a possibility that Dale Davis will see some extra time off the Piston pine, but probably not enough to make him worthwhile.

The Phoenix Chuckers
Any of these guys – James Jones, Leandro Barbosa, Eddie House, Tim Thomas, Raja Bell – could be a fine pickup if you’re looking for threes. With Mike D’Antoni allowing his players to shoot at will, and Steve Nash putting them in position to do just that, the Suns not only take the most threes of any team in the league, they also make the highest percentage of them. The problem is knowing who’s going to have the hot hand from night to night. Last Friday, Barbosa exploded for 28 points – the next game, he was held to 10. But all of them, on average, will give you at least one three and maybe 8-10 points with a spattering of other stats.

Martell Webster, G/F, POR
While the rest of his team is a complete disaster, Webster will have an opportunity to strut his stuff over the final few weeks of the season. He’ll have his ups and downs, but in the end he’ll be a big help in threes, and should contribute in points and FT% as well. Anything more than that might be asking too much, but he’s also a candidate for one of those out-of-nowhere breakout games as well.

Free Agent Season Push?

2006-04-03T11:45:00.000-04:00

One thing we always look for before the season are players entering the final year of their contract. The common logic is that with their chance for a big pay day on the horizon, these players will “kick it up a notch” and put up numbers better than what you would normally expect. A player like Larry Hughes last year was a great example of this. But is it really something that happens with that much regularity? Using Chris Sheridan’s article for ESPN.com from the beginning of February, where he listed the top 25 upcoming free agents, let’s see if these guys saw a spike in their performance this season.

Ben Wallace
2003-2004: 9.5/12.4/1.7, 1.8 steals, 3.0 blocks in 37.7 mpg
2004-2005: 9.7/12.2/1.7, 1.4 steals, 2.4 blocks in 36.1 mpg
2005-2006: 7.6/11.6/2.0, 1.8 steals, 2.2 blocks in 35.8 mpg

No spike at all for Big Ben, although his shooting percentage is at its highest mark for 01-02. He might not be the case for a situation like this though; his talents are well known and it’s long been assumed that his re-signing with the Pistons is little more than a formality.

Al Harrington
2003-2004: 13.3/6.4/1.7, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 0.3 3s in 30.9 mpg
2004-2005: 17.6/7.0/3.2, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 0.2 3s in 38.6 mpg
2005-2006: 18.9/6.9/3.2, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, 0.9 3s in 37.1 mpg

Besides showing that he can hit the occasional 3, there hasn’t been much to distinguish Harrington’s season this year from last year. His scoring rate is up a bit, but everything else has stayed mostly the same.

Jason Terry
2003-2004: 16.8/4.2/5.4, 1.5 steals, 1.8 3s, 42% FG in 37.3 mpg
2004-2005: 12.4/2.4/5.4, 1.4 steals, 1.3 3s, 50% FG in 30.0 mpg
2005-2006: 17.4/1.9/3.8, 1.3 steals, 2.2 3s, 47% FG in 35.2 mpg

It looks like a big improvement, but the biggest bump has been in the minutes department; seeing a big drop in assists while seeing five extra minutes per game won’t do anything to convince people that Terry is a “true” PG. Still, Terry has once again turned in a consistent, underappreciated fantasy season, currently finding himself at #35 on the Player Rater.

Vladimir Radmanovic
2003-2004: 12.0/5.3/1.8, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.8 3s in 30.1 mpg
2004-2005: 11.8/4.6/1.4, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 2.0 3s in 29.5 mpg
2005-2006 (Seattle): 9.3/4.0/1.5, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.5 3s in 23.2 mpg
2005-2006 (Clippers): 11.6/6.3/2.3, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.4 3s in 30.8 mpg

Don’t call it a comeback – RadMan’s resurgence in L.A. is simply a recreation of what he did in Seattle in 03-04 and 04-05. His size, ability to knock down the 3 and now the fact that he has “contributed to a winning” team should make him a rich man over the summer, but it’s still hard to believe he turned down $50 million.

Peja Stojakovic
2003-2004: 24.3/6.3/2.1, 1.3 steals, 3.0 3s, 48% FG in 40.3 mpg
2004-2005: 20.1/4.3/2.1, 1.2 steals, 2.6 3s, 44% FG in 38.4 mpg
2005-2006 (Kings): 16.5/5.3/2.2, 2.3 3s, 40% FG in 37.0 mpg
2005-2006 (Pacers): 19.2/6.4/1.8, 2.2 3s, 46% FG in 36.5 mpg

I’ll admit I thought this was going to be a good one. Coming off a down year and going for a big contract, I like Peja almost as much as Ray Allen this year. Oops. His resurgence in Indiana has been solid, but he’s still nowhere near his 03-04 peak.

Nene
Worst. Timing. Ever.

Mike James
2003-2004: 6.4/2.2/3.7, 1.0 steals, 0.8 3s, 40% FG in 19.7 mpg
2004-2005: 9.3/2.9/4.2, 1.2 steals, 1.3 3s, 42% FG in 27.1 mpg
2005-2006: 19.3/3.2/5.9, 0.9 steals, 2.0 3s, 46% FG in 36.6 mpg

Here’s the guy who helps the contract year push theory take on perhaps greater meaning than it should. James has seemingly come out of nowhere to put up huge numbers and after bouncing between six squads since 2003 is looking to find a permanent home in the offseason. But check out his p40 numbers from the last two seasons.

2005-2006: 21.1/3.5/6.4, 1.0 steals, 2.2 3s, 46% FG
2004-2005: 18.7/4.5/5.7, 1.4 steals, 2.2 3s, 42% FG

James just needed the opportunity. Yes, his numbers are still better, but most of that is due to an abnormally high FG%. Otherwise, his numbers are right in line with what you’d expect. So yes, James saw the opportunity and ran with it, but we can’t necessarily say that this is a contract push, or rather just finally getting an opportunity.

Bobby Jackson
2003-2004: 13.8/3.5/2.1, 1.0 steals, 1.6 3s, 44% FG in 23.7 mpg
2004-2005: 12.0/3.4/2.4, 0.6 steals, 1.3 3s, 43% FG in 21.4 mpg
2005-2006: 11.6/3.1/2.8, 0.8 steals, 1.8 3s, 38% FG in 25.4 mpg

The best thing B-Jax did for his offseason value was appear in 63 games so far. After missing more games than he played in the past two seasons, he needed to show at least some ability to stay healthy. He missed one stretch of 8 games and another of 3, but has been in the lineup since then. But there’s no real performance spike to speak of.

Joel Przybilla
2003-2004: Irrelevant.
2004-2005: 6.4/7.7/1.0, 2.1 blocks, 60% FG in 24.4 mpg
2005-2006: 6.2/6.9/0.8, 2.4 blocks, 55% FG in 24.9 mpg

Not bad, but Przybilla didn’t take that leap forward people were expecting. Injuries, the presence of Theo Ratliff and the general disarray of the Blazers have all contributed to this. The numbers look pretty similar, but it’s worth remembering that Przybilla was just huge at the end of last season and hasn’t put together an extended stretch like that this year.

Sam Cassell
2003-2004: 19.8/2.7/5.1, 1.3 steals, 0.9 3s, 49% in 35.0 mpg
2004-2004: 13.5/2.7/5.1, 0.6 steals, 0.5 3s, 46% in 25.8 mpg
2005-2006: 17.5/3.6/6.4, 0.9 steals, 0.9 3s, 45% in 34.6 mpg

Now here’s one we probably should have seen coming. Cassell is a guy who always has contract on the mind, and giving him the reigns in L.A. in a walk year has predictably led to a nice comeback year, and should assure him of a well-deserved pay day.

We’ll take a look at some more later in the week.

Head-to-Head's Up (4/3-4/9)

2006-04-01T01:06:00.000-05:00

George Mason is in the Final Four and its no April Fool’s joke. Here's a short and sweet look at the NBA this week guys. Preview for 4/3-4/9.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, Indiana, LAC, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Philadelphia, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, LAL, Memphis, Orlando, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, Utah.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Derek Fisher, PG – New rule: Never draft Baron Davis. Just take his veteran backup in the later rounds… he’ll be more productive. The pride of Little Rock, Ark., Derek Fisher has just been great as a starter this season: 15/3/7 with 2 thefts and 1.3 treys.

Nenad Kristic, F/C – Playing the best ball of his career right now, making major contributions during the Nets’ current 11-game win streak. The 22-year-old Yugo is averaging 16/9/2 over his last dozen games. He’s got nice matchups against four weak defenses this week (ATL, CHA, CLE, @MIL).

Luther Head, G – Some player raters have the rookie ranked ahead of Jason Terry, Jason Richardson, and Tim Duncan for their performance over the last two weeks. It’s a short period, but Luther has posted 14/5/4 with 1.4 threes, 1.7 steals, and great percentages (48%FG, 83%FT) over that span.

Delonte West, PG – Right back on track after struggling earlier this month with a groin strain. 14/4/5, 1.2 steals and 1.2 treys since returning to Boston’s starting lineup. What a delight to have in your lineup!

Chris Duhon, PG – Four consectutive starts and six straight games scoring in double figures. The former Blue Devil started off hot this season and may be looking to finish the year on a high note as well.

Bonzi Wells, G/F – Kevin Martin has sat out the last 5 games for some reason (he’s not listed on the Kings' injury report), and Bonzi Wells, though still hobbled a bit by his groin injury, is back in the starting lineup and getting consistent minutes. Bonzi led Sacramento with 22 points and 9 boards in last night’s win over Golden State.

Charlie Villanueva, PF and Morris Peterson, G/F – Warning: Contents may be extremely hot. As if you needed me to tell you. Career highs of 48 and 38 points, respectively, this past week. Plug 'em in fools.

Etan Thomas, F/C and Toni Kukoc, F – If you’re in a VERY deep league… and really desperate. Well, probably not.

Bad News Bosh

2006-03-29T09:57:00.000-05:00

At this point in the year, when opportunity knocks, you’ve gotta be ready to answer the door. And opportunity just knocked in the form of Chris Bosh going down “indefinitely,” as in, for awhile. It’s not every day that a guy who leads his team in points and boards goes down, and now there are 15.5 shots a game that were going to Bosh that are up for grabs. Now, granted, Mike James, Charlie Villanueva, and Morris Peterson will get the majority of those shots, but there are a few guys on the waiver wire that could now be useful to a couple of teams. Let’s take a look at them:

Pape Sow
Sow, who was drafted in 2004 by the Heat and subsequently dropped, surfaced once last year with the Raptors, and then was resigned in August and thrown into the D-League. He wasn’t really expected to do much there, but then out of nowhere put together 19.7/11.6 with 1.4 steals and 1.6 blocks with the Arkansas Rimrockers. So now, he’s back in the NBA, and – for some reason – he’s been starting at center for the Raptors on a consistent basis. And though he’s “starting” in that at the beginning of the game he’s on the court, he is by no means your typical starter, only seeing 17 minutes in games that he starts. But in those 17 minutes, he’s putting up decent lines – 4.8/4.1 with 1 steals and .5 blocks.

So you would expect that with Bosh out, Sow would start seeing more minutes, but I don’t think it’s going to happen to the extent that it could. Sow’s inability to stay on the court isn’t as related to the minutes available to him as it is to his tendency to get into foul trouble. On Sunday against Milwaukee for example, he fouled out in a season-high 27 minutes. Last Friday he picked up 5 fouls in just 15 minutes on the court, and last week against the Knicks amassed 4 fouls in just 10 minutes. Still, his potential to put together nice defensive numbers while not damaging your percentages means that he’s worth a waiver for those of you with extra games to play at center.

Matt Bonner
If you’re planning on making a run in threes, and Bonner is sitting on your waiver wire, you’re just not working hard enough. Since the All-Star break, he’s been seeing about 25 mpg and knocking down 1.8 3’s per contest, all while qualifying at C, which makes him invaluable to certain fantasy squads. This should be enough to make Bonner picked up in those leagues where he hasn’t been grabbed yet. He should be good for 30 mpg and at least 2 3’s while Bosh is out, while contributing spectacular FT% from the C spot. Granted, he won’t be at the line all that much, but finding a center who simply won’t hurt you at FT% is a major bonus.

Rafael Araujo
Ha ha, of course I’m kidding. Araujo isn’t just in the dog house, he’s … um … he lives in the dog house? He signed a lease? Anyways, the point is, crying isn't gonna bring him back, unless your tears smell like dog food. So you can either sit there crying and eating can after can of dog food until your tears smell enough like dog food to make your dog come back -- or you can go out there and find another player.

---

On a side note, this doesn’t deserve it’s own column, but what the hell has gotten into Ben Wallace lately? I mean, I understand that he’s not exactly a “good” free throw shooter, but he might be single-handedly ruining my fantasy team with his performance lately. In March, he’s been shooting 25.5% from the line. That’s not just paltry, it’s pathetic. C’mon, Big Ben …

Roster Management: Using Those Games

2006-03-28T10:34:00.000-05:00

It’s sad, but true – there’s less than one month left in the NBA regular season, and that less than one month to make your big run to the top of the standings. With this in mind, let’s take a look at one of the real taboos of fantasy sports: not using all of your available games. Leaving games on the board at the end of the year can be killer when you’re left 4 rebounds shy of an extra point in the standings. So let’s see if I can’t help you get the most out of your remaining games, with a few tips:

Stop Stocking Games
I’ve mentioned this before, probably on numerous occasions, but if you wait until the last week of the season to use those extra two games you’ve got at PF, you’re making a mistake. It’s much easier to find a reliable option right now than it will be in mid-April, when lots of coaches go into Larry Brown mode. Right now, playing rotations are still pretty stable, and you have a pretty good idea what you’re going to get from guys on a night-to-night basis. By the end of the year, rotations are in flux, starters are sitting with stubbed toes, and the backups are losing time to THEIR backups. This week will be better than next week, which will be better than the week after that. It all goes downhill from here.

Get Flexible
An extra game in a, um, “multi-position” position is far more valuable than those in a single-position position. For example, it’s much better to have 3 games left at your F spot than at your SF spot, because the F spot can be filled by many more guys than the SF spot. So what you need to do is start consolidating your extra games in spots where you’re more flexible. If you’ve got a choice between filling a game at PG or at G, then fill it at PG. If you have a choice between G or Utility (the most valuable position at this time of year), then by all means put the guy at the Guard spot. You’re much better off going into the last week of the season with 3 extra games to use at Utility than at a traditional spot.

Eyes on the Prize
The extra games you’ve got now need to be used – but that doesn’t mean you should use them recklessly. Pick a target category, and use those extra games as much as you can to move up in that one category. Just because you’ve got a spot available at C doesn’t mean that you need to use that spot for typical C categories like blocks or boards. If you need threes, for example, take a flyer on a Clifford Robinson or Matt Bonner for that position. This late in the year, it’s very easy to find those positions that you can really make a move in, and those which you’re pretty stuck. Use that to your advantage.

Don’t Sabotage Yourself
In the cumulative categories, it can never hurt to have a guy play one more game. Looking for steals? The more games you use, the more steals you’ll have. With the percentages, though, more is not necessarily better. You’ve got to be very careful that you’re not hurting yourself more than you’re helping yourself. For example, if you’re going after blocks, that means you’re going to be playing a lot of big men. Unfortunately, big men can be pretty damaging from a FT% perspective. So keep a close watch on your percentages when you’re using up these games.

Worth the Wait?

2006-03-27T14:31:00.000-05:00

One of the best moments in the NBA season occurred this past Thursday when Amare Stoudemire took the court in Phoenix. Stoudemire is the most exciting big man in the league and depending on the night, he can certainly give LeBron, Dwyane and Kobe a run for their money when it comes to the most fun player to watch, period. He didn’t look too rusty either, going for 20 and 9 with a pair of blocks in just 19 minutes. So all of those owners who stashed him on the bench all season in hopes of a late season push were probably thrilled. “If he can put up 20 and 9 in 19 minutes in his first game, he’ll be putting up 30 and 10 in no time!” Well, not quite. Game Number Two wasn’t the same rousing success as Amare put up just 6 and 5 in 17 minutes. He’s been complaining of soreness in both knees, which isn’t too surprising, and he may actually be more of a problem for your fantasy team right now than a true asset.

Why’s that? Because – just like at the beginning of the season – he’s the ultimate temptation, but far from the sure thing. At this point in the season, you need the most out of every game you use. With some members of your league likely inactive due to their standings position, it should mean that they are even more quality free agent options available, meaning there’s little excuse for having a clunker. If you’ve held onto Stoudemire for this long there’s a good chance you’ll want to see your patience pay off, but that could be working against you. The eagerness to plug Stoudmire in the lineup might backfire. Don’t consider what you have already invested when making decisions going forward. Look at things completely objectively. If you spent a draft pick on him and have been stashing him all year (more on that in a bit), don’t use that as your reasoning to get him in your lineup. He should only be in your lineup if he’s the best option you have available. And even though a minute played for Phoenix is more valuable than a minute played for any other team, and even though everyone needs a center, it’s hard to endorse a player who will be lucky to see 25 minutes per game over the rest of the season. If I learned anything in the one economics class I took in college -- and that’s open for debate – it’s the sunk cost. You can’t let whatever price you paid for Amare earlier on affect your decisions now.

It’s also a good time to reflect on whether it was worth it drafting Stoudemire at the beginning of the season. The best-case scenario had Stoudemire coming back around the All-Star break, but you had to be the most optimistic person in the world to think that was going to happen. A smart organization like Phoenix knows better than to rush its franchise player back from injury before he’s completely healed. Getting back for the final 16 games is really the best one could have hoped for, and that includes the slow ramp up time. In our 12-team league with 13 roster spots on each team, Stoudemire went in the 8th round. This was ridiculously early; I can’t imagine too many leagues in which he went any earlier than this. But just to prove a point, let’s take a look at some of the players drafted after Amare: Bobby Simmons, Mike James, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Nenad Krstic, Bonzi Wells, Shane Battier, Gerald Wallace, Jameer Nelson, Ricky Davis, Eddie Jones, Luol Deng, Raja Bell, Charlie Villanueva, Mike Miller, Raymond Felton, T.J. Ford, Chris Kaman. Think that owner wouldn’t mind having one of those players instead of 16 games of middle Amare?

The draft is by far the most important day of the season. Each pick should be treated preciously. The trend throughout the league these days is to be overly cautious when it comes to injuries, especially with elite players. There is too much money tied up in these guys to allow GMs and coaches to do anything risky. There are obviously different levels of risk – Jason Kidd’s injury at the start of last year simply nowhere near as serious as Stoudemire’s, for example – but it’s just very hard to ever endorse the drafting of a player who absolutely everyone agrees will miss at least the first half of the season.

While we’re on the topic of the Suns, one more quick note. When possible I’m going with the “they’re playing the Suns? I’m gonna plug him in” strategy. I picked up Charlie Bell today, hoping that T.J. Ford misses another game and Bell can put up a good line in a possible shootout. Other teams on the plate for Phoenix over the next few days include Indiana and Toronto. So if guys like Danny Granger or Matt Bonner are sitting out there, this might be the time to use them.

Head-to-Head's Up (3/27-4/2)

2006-03-24T01:20:00.000-05:00

Oh My God, Becky... Did you see those second round games last night?!? Love the Tourney. Anyways, NBA Week 3/27-4/2 features several players “Returning with a Vengeance.” Here’s a look.

Five Games: Phoenix.
Four Games: Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, Golden State, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, Sacramento, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, LAC, LAL, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto.
Two Games: Boston.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
The Phoenix Suns, G/F/C – As if this squad wasn’t loaded with enough fantasy ballers already, now they have Amare STUDemire back in uniform and they play five games next week. Amare made his season debut last night and led the team with 20 points and 9 boards in only 19 minutes of action! All five starters are no-brainer plug-ins next week, plus Barbosa and Tim Thomas are worthy of consideration.

Jermaine O’Neal, F/C – O’Neal was supposed to be out until the playoffs with a torn groin muscle, then all of sudden he practices a couple times this week and was back in action on Wednesday night, posting 16 and 6 in 25 minutes. Many dropped the injured big man, but some shrewd owners with room on their bench stashed him just in case he recovered quickly (Jackpot!). If he can avoid any setbacks O’Neal will help you make that final push into your fantasy hoops playoffs. With four matchups on tap, you should get him in your lineups right away.

Josh Childress, G/F – J-Chill returned last Friday after missing five games with an ankle sprain. He was back to his old efficient self on Wednesday with a super game, delivering 17/12/5 with 3 steals and a three on 7 for 9 shooting. Four games from Childress should be more productive than say Paul Pierce’s two contests next week. You gotta love his across-the-board contributions in your H2H league.

Mike Dunleavy, SF – I generally share BV’s contempt for Mike Dunleavy and his overrated “skill set,” but that’s not to say I wouldn’t consider plugging in the former Blue Devil (eat it Duke!) for four games this coming week. Mickael Pietrus may have been the one who was hot in February, but after hitting a wall toward the end of the month (8 for 37 shooting), he was yanked from the starting rotation in favor of Dunleavy. Dunleavy has been shooting well since returning to the SLU a couple weeks ago and is averaging 21/8/4 and 2 treys over his last four games. Ride the wave and start Junior for four contests this week.

Sebastian Telfair, PG – Raise your hand if you’ve seen “Through the Fire: Sebastian Telfair’s Defining Year,” or better yet just post a comment. The documentary that chronicles Bassy’s jump from Lincoln High School to the NBA just came out on DVD a couple weeks ago and it’s next on my Netflix queue. Telfair was a preseason breakout candidate but has struggled with injuries, gun charges, and former Terrapins outplaying him on the court for most of ’05-’06. Well, he’s now back in the starting lineup ready to build some momentum going into next season. Sebastian has put up nice numbers (17/3/4 with 1.8 threes) in four games this week. As long as he’s in Portland’s starting lineup he belongs in yours.

Mike Miller, G/F – Time for some nickname tryouts: ‘MiMi’? ‘Eminem’? ‘Mike Miller Genuine Draft’? ‘Goofy White Chocolate’? Miller dropped 41 points against the Nuggets on March 17th and still finds himself coming off the Grizzlies’ bench. What’s a brotha gotta do to secure a starting gig in this league? (Keep in mind some dude named Royal Ivey has started 50 consecutive games now for the Hawks) M&M is hitting a career high 1.9 from long range this season and had another great game last night contributing 21/14/4 and 3 treys in a win over the Clips. Sure Coach Mike Fratello may love his energy off the bench, but all we want is assurance that Miller will get the playing time (30+ min) he deserves. Memphis tips off four times this week, so don’t hesitate, it’s Miller Time!

Darko?... Orlando only plays thrice next week, but if he remains in the starting lineup he may well be worth it.

Kwame?... ehhh No, not quite yet.

This ... And Some of That

2006-03-23T16:12:00.000-05:00

It’s all about finding the little advantages at this point in the season. While many people will be focusing on the teams fighting for their playoff lives and home court advantage, you certainly don’t want to stop paying attention to the crappy teams. Why? Because while the good teams are getting into playoff mode – which invariably means tightening up the D – the crappy teams are just playing out the stretch and going out there to have fun. The guys on those teams aren’t interested in being lockdown defenders – they are interested in scoring points.

Check out last night’s games for an extremely small sample size example. There were three games played in which both teams are currently in the playoffs. There was an average of 172.7 total points scored in those three games. There were four games played with one team in the playoffs as of now, and one team out. There was an average of 214.5 total points scored in those games (with one OT game to take into account). Then there were two games of has-beens with an average of 202 total points in those games. On Tuesday there were just two games featuring a pair of non-playoff teams. All four of those teams broke the 100 point barrier. Something to keep in mind if you’re looking for some one-game wonders.

Now just a few random observations from last night:

--How about that Allen Iverson? We don’t like injury prone players too much, especially ones that will be drafted in the first two rounds, but one the unique things about Iverson’s injury proneness is that it’s either all or nothing. We hate it when guys slowly get worked back into the lineup. It’s the ultimate tease. That’s never the case with Iverson. He’ll miss his games, but when you get word that he’s coming back, you can plug him in the lineup with confidence. After missing four contests he returned to play 42 minutes and put up a line of 29/3/12 with two steals.

--Looking at Joe Johnson’s line last night I was like, “Ooh, a crappy game.” After all, he “just” put up 12/2/8 with three steals and two 3s. It just shows how out of this world Johnson has been lately. Johnson checks in at #9 on the 30 day player rater and his post-break numbers of 23.0/3.8/8.8 with 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.4 3s on 48% shooting are making those owners who drafted him early and held onto him – or traded for him a few months ago – very happy people. He hasn’t missed a game this season and now finds himself at #16 on the overall rater, which is higher than even the most optimistic of folks could have had him. Patience with your early picks.

--I’m never one to recommend bench players, but Andres Nocioni doesn’t deserve to be sitting out on too many FA lists right now. His playing time is very consistent – 30+ minutes in four of the past six – and he’s been Chicago’s most reliable offensive option lately. His playing style is so perfectly suited to an “energy guy off the bench” role that it seems unlikely he’ll ever be a true fantasy asset, though.

--You knew better than to trust Nazr Mohammed, right.

--With the caveat that he’s a rookie and still has a lot to learn, I’d say that Charlie Villanueva’s run as a starter for the Raptors has been a tad disappointing. In 22 games with a healthy 33.7 minutes he’s posting numbers of 13/0/7.6/1.4 with 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.0 3s on 46 and 77%. That’s solid all-around and good enough for a very respectable #79 on the 30 day rater. Perhaps we were expecting too much too soon. Maybe it’s for the best as it might keep his draft value down next year.

--That Knicks-Magic game sure was a fantasy nightmare and I suppose is the reason you can’t rely too much on those non-playoff team games. A grand total of 23 guys saw time on the court, and only one of them played more than 31 minutes. Ouch. That did let 12 guys get into double digits, but only Darko and his 4 blocks and Dwight Howard’s spot-on shooting really helped anyone last night.

Applications

2006-03-22T10:26:00.000-05:00

Dear Kwame Brown,

Thank you for applying to be on my fantasy basketball team. I have taken into consideration many factors while making this decision, but I believe I have made the correct one:

No way. Uh-uh. I’m not buying it. I’ve followed your career too long and too close to get fooled again. Sure, you’ve gotten some nice run the past few games in place of Chris Mihm, topping the 35 mpg mark that usually makes players relevant fantasy-wise. And yeah, you’ve been not-too-terrible in those 5 games you started, going for 9.4 and 7 on 61% shooting. And perhaps best of all, you qualify at center, making pedestrian numbers like that worth looking at. But here’s a secret that I know about you. You might not like me letting it out, but I’ve got a responsibility here, so here goes:

You’re a terrible basketball player.

There, I said it. You have no concept of how to play defense. People blame your small hands for all the turnovers, but the real problem is that you don’t know what to do with the ball when you get it. You’ve managed to actually regress from the free-throw line, and now you’re averaging a Ben Wallace-esque 54% from the field. Unfortunately, that’s the only Wallace-esque thing about you. You’re completely allergic to blocks and steals. In fact, of the 43 guys who qualify at center on ESPN, you’re 34th in blocks per 48 minutes. That’s just not good. The steals aren’t there either.

Good luck on your further pursuits as a fantasy basketball contributor.

Sincerely,

BV

Dear Mike Dunleavy,

Thank you for applying to be on my fantasy basketball team. Much like NBA GM’s, I can’t help but be intrigued by a dude who’s 6-9, can pass and rebound, and will step out to shoot the three pointer when prodded. Unlike NBA GM’s, and Golden State GM’s in particular, I will not be suckered into giving you a stupid amount of money and a long-term deal. And luckily, I don’t have to. In most leagues, you been sitting on waiver wires for most of the year (and rightly so), and can be had for pennies.

Because of your small price, and you recent hot streak, I am willing to accept your application and place you on my team on a provisional basis. You will be placed on the bench, where you will stay until you have proven your consistency. I do not have extra games to use on risks like you. However, if you maintain your hot streak for another 2 games or so, particularly focusing on your threes, I may give you some run in my Utility spot.

I’ll be blunt, Mr. Dunleavy. I don’t like you. I haven't liked you since your days as a Blue Devil. I think you are incredibly overrated, and if your name wasn’t Dunleavy, and you didn’t go to Duke, you would have been a late first round pick rather than the No. 3 overall back in 2002. I hope you enjoy your time sitting on my bench – at the end of it.

Sincerely,

BV

3-2-1 Contract

2006-03-21T10:16:00.000-05:00

The contract push can come in all shapes and sizes. Last year, Jerome James went bonkers for 2 or 3 games in the playoffs, and in doing so earned himself probably 15-20 million dollars. In ’03-04, Mark Blount qualified as the “Best Pickup I Ever Made Mid-Season,” averaging 13.1/9.6 with 1.3 blocks and 55% from the field over the second half of the year, earning himself a massive contract that he (shockingly) never lived up to.

This summer will see a particularly poor crop of free agents, and most teams have their eyes on the summer of '07, when all the big names hit the market. Still, there will be teams with money to spend now, and that means some less than stellar players will be getting some nice deals.

With this in mind, let’s look at a couple of fringe players who might work hard for the money, so hard for the money.

Joel Przybilla, POR
Przybilla is my favorite pick for a guy who can come out of nowhere to put up big numbers, and for a couple of reasons. One, we saw him do it last year, where over the last 33 games he turned into a blocks machine, turning away 3.55 shots per game while chipping in 9.5 points and 10.2 boards on 58% shooting. Two, from Blount and James all the way back to Jim McIlvaine, teams are always willing to overpay big guys, so he’s got plenty to gain. Finally, with Old Man Ratliff struggling with a sore ankle, the flu, and lord knows what else, the time is there for Przybilla if he earns it. It’s not like the Blazers are going anywhere, so they’ve got nothing to lose by playing him.

Personally, I like Przybilla, and I think he’s a solid starting job away from being a nice fantasy center. Before the year started, I had him in the same tier as Samuel Dalembert, and sometimes risks work out, sometimes they don’t. But just has Dalembert’s season took a turn for the worse seemingly out of nowhere, perhaps Przybilla can turn his around in the right direction.

Bonzi Wells, SAC
Admittedly, Wells probably won’t be sitting on your league’s waiver wire, but as he continues to split time with Kevin Martin, he might start showing up in the drop column. Don’t let him stay there long. Hanging onto the last playoff spot in the West by a thread, I’d look for Rick Adelman to start giving more time to the veteran down the stretch. When healthy, Wells has been a very solid utility guy for fantasy teams, providing great rebounding (the 8 per game is easily a career high), and nice steals at 1.9 per game. Wells will turn 30 in the offseason, and this is likely his last shot at a big deal. Helping the Kings into the playoffs would earn him a nice payday in the offseason.

Bobby Jackson, MEM
Jackson has been battling with Chucky Atkins for playing time, and dealing with injuries at the same time. He did just turn 33 years old, so it’s not like he’s going to get a huge deal anywhere, but he’s such a huge asset in threes, that it doesn’t take too much else to make him worth a spot on your fantasy team. He could just as easily average 11 points as he could 16 points over the rest of the year, so if it looks like he’s about to hit on a hot streak, don’t hesitate to grab him.

Rasual Butler, NOK
Butler is a pretty deep sleeper, but this year’s FA crop is pretty thin, so he could play his way into a nice deal as a rotation guy. He’s seen his minutes steadily increase all year (Monthly averages: 15.3, 19.9, 21.0, 24.3, 25.1), and if he finds his shooting stroke from long range (he’s shot .125 in March after hitting 40% in February), he could see himself cracking the 30 mpg barrier. He won’t excel in any particular category, but he’ll provide a little bit in threes, blocks, and steals, and down the stretch, and that could be a nice complement to the right fantasy teams.

When Basketball Takes a Back Seat

2006-03-20T15:56:00.000-05:00

We love our NBA basketball here at FBB. We live for it, you might say. But sometimes, our love of basketball has to take a backseat to other things in life. Such as following the Silver Jews around on their first ever tour. Now you might not know who the Silver Jews are and you probably don’t care, but the point remains that sometimes we can’t follow fantasy basketball happenings as much as we want to, but it doesn’t mean we have to let our teams suffer. So here’s my way of dealing with being mostly out of the loop for a few days, as I was this weekend.

The first thing you need to do before you leave your world of ready access to a computer is set your lineup. This sounds sort of obvious, but you’d be surprised how easy it is to forget. And at the same time, different leagues have different ways of setting lineups. Just because you put someone in there on Friday doesn’t mean he’ll still be in there on Saturday. This is obviously of even more importance as we get later into the season and every game matters. If you have to set your lineup for a long(ish) stretch of time, I always like to play it somewhat safe. Your studs will be in there all the time, that goes without saying. As for fringe players, it’s a tough call. T.J. Ford is never a sure thing, but I needed assists lately, so I had him in the lineup. But still, better safe than sorry is the way to go here. If games are at a premium, then it’s best to use them when you know you’ll have plenty of information at your disposal.

There’s always the possibility of leaving your password info with a trusted confidant and having him change your lineup should anything come up. This is not something I’m into. Sure, I’d totally trust BV not to fuck up my lineup or write hateful e-mails to everyone in my address book, but there’s just something that rubs me the wrong way about having someone else in my team.

So when you’re gone, you’re gone, there’s not so much you can do. If you’ve got Internet on your phone – and I would think most people do at this point – that’s a good way to keep track of at least your players. I made sure to check on my guys, but not too fanatically. One time per evening, after all the games were over. If you’re going to without ready access, I say to just let it go as much as possible. It’s always good to get a break to refresh, so don’t be constantly waiting for your phone to load while you’re on that break.

Catching up on info when you get back is the big thing. If you’re away for just a few days, it’s pretty easy to get up to speed on what you missed. The first thing to do is check all the box scores, but also make sure to read the game recaps. The numbers are important, but you need to know how those numbers came about. Did someone have a great fourth quarter that might lead to more playing time? Did someone have a big game because another player got ejected? This is key. Check whichever news blurb site you prefer and do a quick scan through the days you missed. You don’t need to painstakingly read each one – if it simply says that someone had a big game you’ve probably discerned that from the box score – but check for minor injury updates. It’s not a bad idea to read the hometown papers about your own players.

Check your league’s transaction list. This is actually one of the top priorities. You need to know what players were picked up and what new players are available. There’s no worse feeling than seeing someone get plucked off the free agent list and saying, “Wait, he was available? I would have picked him up had I known!” Don’t just look at the complete list, sort it by add, sort it by drop, to get a better idea. Check the top of your free agent list when you get back to see what the best choices are up there. You always want to know what your best options are in case you have to make a quick move.

Anyone else have any tactics they use to stay competitive while on vacation?

Head-to-Head's Up (3/20-3/26)

2006-03-17T20:30:00.000-05:00

Sorry about the delay today, but the IT guy at work is cracking down on internet use, plus you know that tournament thing. Are your brackets already busted? Really? You must be pretty bad. Anyways here are some tips for NBA March Gladness: looking ahead to week 3/20-3/26.

Five Games: LAC
Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto.
Three Games: Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Miami, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Utah, Washington.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Vladimir Radmanovic, PF – The Clippers are the only team in the league to hit the hardwood five times next week and RadMan can do some damage from long range with plenty of playing time off the bench. Vlad has grabbed a respectable 7 boards and drained over 3 rainmakers a game since Presidents’ Day. Los Angeles is 7-3 over that span and it appears Vlad Rad has the green light to shoot as much as he likes from downtown. You know he runs hot and cold, so now is as good a time as any to plug in the Bosnian sharpshooter. Take advantage.

Jumaine Jones, SF – Much like the Wizards’ Antawn Jamison, Jumaine Jones appears to have suddenly discovered his long range stroke this season… especially over the last few weeks. Jones was a great pickup while starter Gerald Wallace missed significant time, and he was playing so well that Coach Bernie Bickerstaff decided to keep JJ in the starting lineup even after Wallace returned. Now, wispy Wallace is out again and Jones is scorching hot (23/7/1, 49%FG, 88%FT with 4.2 treys and 1.4 thefts over last 5 games). At this pace, March ‘06 will go down as the best month of Jumaine’s not-so-illustrious NBA career.

Chucky Atkins, PG – Chucky may be Memphis’s starting point guard but the offense does not exactly run through him. Sure he may bring the ball up the court but he doesn’t orchestrate plays a la Steve Nash, thus keeping his assist numbers pretty low (compare Pau Gasol’s 43 dishes to Atkins’ 17 in March). Spark plug guard Bobby Jackson was really beginning to cut into Chucky’s minutes recently until he was forced out of action with a strained rib muscle. Now Atkins is assured the bulk of the minutes at point guard. However, even with the increased workload there’s still a ceiling on his fantasy production, so don’t expect any miracles. He’s averaging 14.1ppg and 2.3 treys this month, so he makes a decent play if you’re looking for three-pointers this week.

Luther Head, G – The rookie out of Illinois probably shouldn’t be starting for an NBA team with playoff aspirations, but he is. Yao Ming has played like an MVP since returning from his foot injury, but now brokeback T-Mac is probably out for the season. Somebody has to make up some of McGrady’s 25 ppg even if Yao is scoring 35 a night. Who are the other candidates to pick up the slack? Juwan Howard and Keith Bogans? Remember, Luther had that nice little run in November filling in for Alston, averaging 15/6/4 and 3.4 threes over a 5-game stretch. If you're feeling lucky go get some Head and put him in your lineup.

Jake Tsakalidis, C – The 7’2 giant from Georgia (no, not the dirty South) hasn’t amounted to much of anything six years in the NBA. Tsakalidis was actually averaging career lows before being inserted into Memphis’ starting lineup three weeks ago. His three double-doubles over his last four games won’t be a regular thing, but I don’t think you can call it a fluke either. If the big man can continue getting 25-30 minutes a night he can obviously be a decent fantasy contributor. With four matchups next week, why not give him try?

First Person Scouting Report

2006-03-16T14:09:00.000-05:00

So last night BV and I took in some NBA action at the MCI, er, Verizon Center. Scored some relatively good and cheap tickets off of Craigslist (can you believe people were trying to get rid of Wizards/Bobcats tickets on a Wednesday night?!) and enjoyed a game that played out exactly as we thought it would. Wizards jump out to big lead, get disinterested, let the Bobcats hang in there even though you never actually think they have a chance of winning, and hold on in the end. It was a fine game, although perhaps the highlights were two things that had nothing to do with the game. First, a little kid in the section over from us taking his hat and throwing if over the ledge down into the section below us. Hilarious. Second, a guy from the crowd hitting a 3-pointer, getting everyone in the audience a free pizza today. Good times.

Anyway, the point is, going to games is fun and you should go to as many games as possible. I know that this is easier said than done. Maybe you don’t have the money, the time, or live in a city with an NBA team. That’d be a bummer. But it’s a great way to spend an evening and it really does help you fantasy-wise, too. Yes, fantasy is all about the numbers, but its invaluable to actually see the players and how they go about getting their numbers. This can be achieved by watching games on TV, sure, but it’s not the same as live, where you can see everything unfold and focus on whatever you want to focus on. It’s good to know a little something about every player in the league. It helps on draft day, when you might have less than a minute to make a decision, it might help if you need to make a decision about a free agent. So with that in mind, here’s some first person scouting from last night’s game.

Gilbert Arenas – So far and away the best player on the floor, but in this game, he better be. Has become an incredibly accurate outside shooter over the past couple years; if he’s left completely open from behind the arc, feel confident in shouting “Buckets!” while the ball’s still in the air. Also gets the basket whenever he wants. Will be a first round fantasy pick for many, many years to come.

Antawn Jamison – One of the most interesting fantasy developments this year has been Jamison’s newfound prowess from long range. He was just 1-of-4 last night, but after averaging 1.4 per game in November, then 0.6 in December, he’s averaged 1.9, 2.7 and 2.5 per month over the last three months, and he’s launching them as much as anyone in the league these days. Jamison is also a classic garbage rebounder. Watching him, he’s not at all great on the boards, but he gets in good position and if there’s a missed shot and no one going for an offensive rebound and three Wizards around the rim, Jamison is getting that board.

Caron Butler – I’ve become a big Butler fan this year. He’s an intense player who gives it his all, kind of ironic given who was dealt for. His FG% isn’t anything great, but he’s a surprisingly accurate shooter from around 18-20 feet. A very solid better-than-role player in real life and for your fantasy squad.

Antonio Daniels – Right after last season I told BV that I really wanted to Wizards to sign Antonio Daniels. So imagine how happy I was when that actually happened. Then imagine how disappointed I was with his performance the first two seasons. But he’s really turned it around since then. He was being treated as a shooter, not a scorer, but that’s been fixed. He’s best going hard to the basket and getting to the line and making smart passes. He’s a calming presence on the floor, much more valuable to the Wizards than to anyone’s fantasy team.

Brendan Haywood – This was a make or break year for Haywood and while he didn’t exactly break, he certainly didn’t make. He showed improvement each year in his career, but looks like he may have maxed out. On defense he’s a slapper and allows his man to back him down too easily. On offense he has weak, bad hands and doesn’t attack the basket enough. Ideally he’s a backup.

Jared Jeffries – Last night might have been one of Jared’s best games ever. And he still makes you uncomfortable. BV and I agree that Jared is good at one thing – bringing the ball over halfcourt. He’s also pretty good at tipping balls (ewww), and he’s sometimes a smart player, but not a very talented one.

Brevin Knight – Knight was pretty awful last, not hitting any of his shots and not sneaking into passing lanes like he normally does. But he still ended with 8 assists and it was easy to see why – he always has the ball. But he’s also in the best possible situation right now and he might never get another chance to repeat it.

Raymond Felton – Hard to get a good read on Felton last night, but I’ll stick with what I said to BV in that he could be looking like the new Baron Davis. I mean, look at that line last night – 3-for-10 from the field, 1-for-5 from long range and 3-for-5 from the line with 6 assists in 27 minutes. Felton had the play of the game, an explosive drive/dunk. It’s hard to tell exactly how good he’ll be until he can take over the reigns as PG.

Jumaine Jones – He loves to shoot, especially the three ball, and who can blame him when he was feeling it like he was last night. He connected on 6-of-8 on his way to a monster game of 25/8/3 with 3 steals, 6 3s on 9-of-14 shooting. Unbelievable. I’ve always been a fan since he’s the classic chucker.

Bernard Robinson – Before the game I said to BV that the Bobcats were a great example of a team that could prove my theory that most players are interchangeable and can put up numbers if given the chance. BV said, “Well, not everyone, not, like, Bernard Robinson.” I said, “You’re crazy, I was thinking specifically of Bernard Robinson.” And he didn’t disappoint, getting 26 minutes and going for 21/4/1 with 3 steals and a 3 on 8-of-11 and 4-of-4. That’s an efficient ballgame right there. He’s a very active player – averaging 1.2 steals in less than 19 mpg this season – and I could see him having a Bobby Simmons-type season if ever given the chance.

Primoz Brezec – Was absolutely invisible last night, which is not a good sign considering that the Wizards don’t have anything resembling an intimidating frontline. Managed to play only 10 minutes. He’s got a nice stroke, but that’s really about it.

Melvin Ely – Another guy who was invisible last night, which was especially disappointing given that he got the start with Gerald Wallace out. Has received 19 starts this year and has managed just 11.0/6.0/1.7 with 1.0 block. Not bad, but certainly nothing spectacular.

Kareem Rush – Here’s one where the stat sheet doesn’t lie. I only noticed him when he was shooting. Well, he played 25 minutes, took 15 shots, had one rebound, two assists, and that’s it. No free throws, no steals, no blocks, no fouls. As one-dimensional as theu come.

Matt Carroll – His shot wasn’t falling last night, and that makes him completely worthless. I was trying to figure out if J.J. Redick is really going to be that much more effective than Carroll and I suppose he will be, but like Carroll he’s going to be dominated on the defensive end and if his shots not falling it’s hard to see him offering anything else of value.

Tourney Time

2006-03-15T14:00:00.000-05:00

I’m not going to pretend that you guys are all going to be watching the NBA nonstop for the next few weeks. I’m well aware that that most, if not all of you will be paying far more attention to the NCAA tournament, and hey, I can’t blame you. Still, you can pick up some nice fantasy knowledge for next year by closely watching some of these kids. Remember, this year’s tourney stars are next year’s 20-minutes per game, just barely not-having-value rookies.

If there’s one thing I pride myself in, it’s picking that late-lottery rookie that will manage to have value in the coming season, and picking them late in the draft. Two years ago I grabbed Dwyane Wade in the last round, last year it was Andre Iguodala, and this year I snagged Charlie Villanueva late (and then held on to him until January, when I dropped him, and watching him then go on a massive tear. Not that I’m bitter.). So what’s the trick? I dunno. I just manage to find guys that I like. With Wade, it was his mid-range jumper that impressed me when I watched him in the tourney. Iguodala had a nice all-around game, and I thought his defense would keep him on the court. I liked Villanueva, but it wasn’t until he started hitting three’s in training camp that I really warmed to him.

The guys who are drafted in the Top 5 are all going to get drafted in fantasy leagues, and will not catch anyone by surprise when they get PT. But correctly guessing which late-lottery/mid-first-round guys are going to have value can be a huge help to your squad.

Anyhow, here are some guys who, admittedly, I’ve never seen before – but who I’m going to be looking at closely in the NCAA tournament:

Brandon Roy, Sr., Washington – Roy has a bunch of positives going for him. Number one, he puts up great percentages for a non-forward. He’s shot over 50% from the field in all four seasons at Washington. This year, he’s even pushed his FT% over 80%, which is very encouraging. The other thing that I really liked, while reading about Roy, is that he’s handled the point position (either as a true PG or a “point-forward”), which means he can be trusted with the ball. Less mistakes as a rookie means more playing time in the NBA.

Josh Boone, Jr., UConn – I like Boone more than teammate Hilton Armstrong simply because I’m very wary of anyone who comes out of nowhere to be a draftable player. Boone has been highly touted for a couple of years now, and though he’s yet to set the world on fire in college, his shot-blocking ability should be drawing your attention. And remember, even though his stats aren’t magnificent, he’s had to share the ball this year with Armstrong, Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams, Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson. His FT% is a major concern, however.

Kevin Pittsnogle, Sr., West Virginia – Hey, any time a big man can shoot 85% from the stripe, I’m interested. He can shoot, and shoot well, and so he’ll get interest from NBA teams – and from me. But I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve read, and if he’s going to impress me in the tournament it’s going to be by playing on the inside.

Shelden Williams, Sr., Duke – You can talk all you want about JJ Redick, but my guess is the Duke player with the most impact next year will be Williams. His blocks and boards are enough to make him worth a look as a fantasy option. Two teams – Seattle and Minnesota – could draft him and plug him right in to their starting lineups.

The one thing you’ll notice about all of these guys is they’re all juniors or seniors. My guess is, if you’re an underclassman, unless you get drafted in the top 5, you’re not going to be playing much your first year until you prove yourself. NBA teams might be able to be patient, but when you’re year-to-year like most fantasy teams, you don’t have the luxury. Good luck with your brackets!

New! Updated! Top 20!

2006-03-14T11:49:00.000-05:00

After having my top 20 column yanked from under me in a hostile takeover by DM last month, I’m taking back the reins this time around.

1. Shawn Marion – He finally won me over with his 90% from the stripe over the last month. The real question is, how will Amare’s return (either this year or next) affect his value? My guess: not much.

2. LeBron James – His FG%, 3’s, and steals have all been in steady decline since December and January, and I’m getting a little worried he might hit the wall. On a side note, how horrendously disappointing has Donyell Marshall been as a Cavalier?

3. Dirk Nowitzki – DM had his at number 6 last time, which is, frankly, ridiculous. My favorite Dirk stat is his FT%, which is right around 90% for the year. Other guys might rank higher on the player rater, but the fact that Dirk does it from the PF spot makes him the most valuable FT guy in the league.

4. Kevin Garnett – Poor KG. He’s really angry, but it hasn’t affected his play yet. His March numbers have been spectacular, though we’ll see if that keeps up.

5. Kobe Bryant – Kobe could be number two on this list, but I worry that his FG% could plummet. 42% over the past month isn’t encouraging. But still, his owners have to be thrilled with the Lakers’ position in the standings. They’re in the playoffs, but it’s not a sure thing, and if they continue to play well they could avoid facing SA or Dallas in round 1.

6. Gilbert Arenas – Here’s something you might not know about us here at FBB: we love Gilbert Arenas. The East Coast Assassin has been on a tear after the All-Star break – 32.8 ppg, 49.8% from the field, 3.0 3’s and 2.7 steals. So, we’ll put him here at six and hope that he keeps it up.

7. Paul Pierce – He’s on fire. I might not love him as much as the Sports Guy, but I’ll admit to being impressed. In next year’s draft, how big will the gap be between Pierce, T-Mac, Kobe and Ray Allen? The general thought this year was that Kobe and T-Mac were on a higher plane, but maybe not anymore.

8. Elton Brand – I might be the only one pushing Brand for MVP, but I’m still convinced. As for fantasy, he’s been better at being Tim Duncan than Tim Duncan has this year, without the FT% woes. He’s a nice mid-first round pick next year.

9. Ray Allen – He’s just solid. At this point, what I’d like to see more than anything from Ray over the rest of the year is to not miss time with injury. I still worry about Ray’s durability, and seeing him top 75 games for a second consecutive year would be nice.

10. Dwyane Wade – I’ve got this idea. If you’re in a head-to-head league next year, I think you could draft Wade, and proceed to punt threes and win your league in a landslide with some smart drafting. With him and Brevin Knight at the point? I dunno, just a thought.

11. Rasheed Wallace – Along with Chauncey Billups, he’s been the best mid-round pick this year. Flip’s presence has really allowed him to flourish, and he’s a potential second round pick next year.

12. Allen Iverson – His ankle is a shame, because I thought he’d use the Team USA debacle as some serious inspiration, and it seemed like he was. Still, I’m hoping that AI’s short absence will allow guys like Stephen Hunter and Andre Iguodala to have a bigger role in the Sixers’ offense.

13. Chauncey Billups – Here’s something that’s got me worried, as a Billups owner – Tony Delk. In the 2 games since Delk decided to be a scorer on his new squad, Billups has taken only 8 shots in each game. Let’s hope this doesn’t become a trend. Still, Chauncey’s 8.8 apg has been one of the nicest surprises in fantasy this year.

14. Joe Johnson – He’s been fifth in the league in assists over the past month with 9.3 per game. What’s more, the Hawks have really been getting better over the past month or two. He might end up being the long term answer at the point for Atlanta.

15. Yao Ming – Hey, do you guys remember when I traded Samuel Dalembert and Jason Terry to DM for Yao Ming and Brevin Knight? Yeah, that was sweet. Yao has been on an absolute tear lately, and so he gets a nice spot in the Top 20.

16. Jason Kidd – He’s been flat-out spectacular since the All-Star break. It’s been like Kidd circa 1999. I wouldn’t count on him keeping it up, but it’s been nice to see.

17. Andrei Kirilenko – I’ll admit it – I’m a huge AK fan, but I am very worried about this year’s output. The FT% is way down, the threes have been next to nil over the last month … I’m just not happy about it.

18. Chris Paul – Here’s a question – what do you expect Paul to do next year? Where do you draft him? How much improvement will there be from year one to year two?

19. Jason Richardson – If he could learn to shoot free-throws … he’d be a second round pick next year. It’s one of the most confounding stats in basketball. Let’s hope he spends a LOT of time working from the stripe this summer.

20. Chris Webber – Admittedly, his stats aren’t as good as some other candidates for this spot, but you’ve got to give props to Webber for staying healthy for so long and turning in a nice season when no one thought he would. So, he gets the 20 spot this time around.

Just a Little Patience

2006-03-13T12:02:00.000-05:00

At this point in the fantasy basketball season there’s not really much else to do but sit back and hope for the best. Your trade deadline has most likely passed, meaning that you can’t improve your team except with whatever is sitting on the free agent list. You should certainly be scouring the available players for whatever can help you, but you knew that already. So I like to use the last month of the season to focus on lessons you can learn from the season and apply to future seasons. So today’s lesson is: Have Patience, or Take Advantage of Those Who Don’t. There’s no great secret in predicting how a player will perform. You basically look at what he’s done in the past, look at his age, look at his situation and that’s it. Well, that’s not it, but that’s most of it. Players will perform how they are expected to perform the majority of the time. And they will usually progress or regress to their expected numbers as time passes. So what happens when a player starts out slow? That will most likely be countered with a stronger performance later in the season. If you have one of those players, you just have to sit tight – selling low usually doesn’t work out for the best. But there are always people who do that, and that’s where you, the clever fantasy player, can swoop in. Here are five players whose owners needed to show some patience with this year. Keep them in mind next year when you are about to hit the trade or drop button for a player you know you really shouldn’t.

Josh Smith
In the preseason rankings I put Smith at #57, and said that you’d have to deal with some ups and downs. But it was mostly downs at the beginning of the season, as at the All-Star break Smith was averaging just 8.8/5.9/1.3 on 42% shooting in only 27.5 mpg. Yes, he was getting 2.3 blocks per contest, but he was still a liability to most teams. But he’s caught fire since then, checking in at #18 on the 30 day player rater, with post-break averages of 12.6/8.9/4.1, 1.0 steals and a monster 3.8 blocks while getting nearly 40 minutes per game. This has vaulted him all the way up to #65 on the overall player rater and leaves him with a fine chance of breaking the top 60, where I had him pegged before the year. His ability to stay healthy is a big reason for this, but he’s a young player, so that’s something you should be able to count on. He’s following almost the same pattern as he did last year, and while that can be frustrating early on, it’s also something you may be able to use to your advantage.

Rafer Alston
There was a lot of waiting necessary here, as Alston had to adjust to a new team and overcome an early season injury. His first couple months really couldn’t have been much worse. Through December he played in just 9 games and was averaging a pathetic 7.3/3.9/4.0 on 33% shooting with barely 1 3pg. Those were not anything close to the numbers people were expecting from Alston when they took him as early as the 5th round. He was hitting the waiver wires in mainly leagues, and astute owners who picked him up have been rewarded with a solid #2 PG for the last few months. A monster January saw him average 14.0/6.9/4.4 with 2.0 steals and 2.2 3s, which are true stud numbers. His FG% remains stuck in the high 30s, but this is no surprise, as it’s right at his career average. His scoring has been down the past few months, but he’s still been a huge contributor in 3s, steals and assists, which is what you’re looking for from a #2 PG.

Jason Kidd
It might be hard to remember now, but early in the season there were lots of disappointed Jason Kidd owners. For a guy who was possibly your first pick and definitely at least your second, and someone who was supposed to lead you to dominance in assists, averaging just 6.7 assists per game through November. He was also shooting just 40% and his 3s were down from last year’s numbers as well. Kidd has long been a notorious FG% killer, but it’s been easy to accept since he’s helped dominate in other categories. That wasn’t happening early, and combined with injury worries, some owners may have gotten worried and traded him off. Obviously, that wasn’t the best of ideas. He’s been vintage Kidd lately, seemingly flirting with a triple-double every night and has been single-handedly taking his owners up the standings, just like a first rounder on a hot streak should.

Peja Stojakovic
OK, so I was way off base with my preseason prediction that he would put up numbers quite similar to Ray Allen this year and would offer a better overall value. That’s as much due to Allen having a career year at age 30, in his 10th season, right after signing a big contract extension as it does with another disappointing season from Stojakovic. But Peja has been close to the Peja of old since finding a new home in Indiana. His 03-04 season in which he averaged 24.3 ppg with 3 3pg on 48% shooting is starting to look like the clear outlier in his career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a true fantasy asset, if not fantasy superstar. It’s especially nice to see Peja realize that’s he’s actually 6’10” and hitting the boards. His 20.4/6.6/1.5 with 2.4 3s on 46/92 shooting is more than solid.

Caron Butler
You all know that we are huge Wizards fans here at FBB, so you can imagine our frustration early in the season when we had to endure Caron Butler – who was clearly the Wizards third best player (and possibly even second best player) – coming off the bench for the first month and a half of the season. He still put up decent numbers during this time but wasn’t very consistent on a game-to-game basis, making him a shaky start for most fantasy owners and causing him to hit the waiver wire in more than a few leagues. But sometimes you just have to hold out hope that talent wins out and that was the case here. Since entering the starting lineup Butler is putting up the best numbers of his career, a solid 17.6/6.5/2.7 with 1.6 steals and even chipping in with 0.7 3s.

Head-to-Head's Up (3/13-3/19)

2006-03-10T11:18:00.000-05:00

Beware the Ides of March approacheth. Do not let NCAA Selection Sunday distract you from your fantasy hoops obligations for week 3/13-3/19.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Indiana, LAL, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, LAC, Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto.
Two Games: Golden State, New Orleans, Seattle.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Luol Deng, F – Before a stinker at Detroit on Wednesday, the Man from Sudan was on a tear: 19/11/2 with a steal and a block in a robust 41.6 minutes over five games. If the 6’9 swingman could develop his three-point shot his value would skyrocket. Get him in your lineups Deng it!

Jason Williams, PG – White Chocolate is red hot and he’s been a big contributor during Miami’s current 10-game win streak. He’s dealt with some nagging injuries this season but he appears healthy and geared up for the playoffs. Averages of 18/2/7 and 3.3 treys per game in March are reason to believe he’ll be a great start with a full schedule next week.

Ryan Gomes, F – The second round draft pick out of Providence has been unbelievable since being thrust into Boston’s starting lineup due to injuries in their frontcourt. Averaging 16/9/2 with 62%FG, 76%FT, and 1 steal over his last 11 games, he’s also second on the team (after Pierce) with 39 minutes a night over that span. Gomes’ success is remarkable considering the inconsequential 8 mpg he averaged over the season’s first three months. So why has top prospect Al Jefferson struggled so much this season while Gomes now makes it look easy as pie? Well first, Gomes played all four years in college and developed his game and maturity level before going pro. He’s a dedicated player, and the rookie also has the benefit of playing big minutes without the lofty expectations imposed on the 21-year-old Jefferson. Ryan has actually stepped it up since Big Al returned from injury by turning in back-to-back career highs of 27 and 29 points. I can’t imagine anyone taking his starting spot the way he’s playing right now. The C’s are 8-4 since Gomes was inserted into the SLU, so go ahead and jump on the bandwagon baby!

Carlos Boozer, PF – The former Blue Devil has probably been the biggest fantasy disappointment this year as he sat out most of the season with a nagging hamstring injury. The overpaid Dukie finally returned to the hardwood last month and is averaging 11/9/2 over his last 9 games coming off the bench. As he regains strength and builds his confidence, Boozer should work his way back into Utah’s starting lineup soon, at which point he could easily put up 18/10/2. The Jazz have four games next week and the Alaskan big man makes a decent start.

Kyle Korver, F – Another disappointment this season, Korver’s value is exclusively tied to his ability to dial long distance. I’m not sure if the MCI/Verizon or AT&T/SBC mergers had anything to do with his struggles, but who knows. Kyle led the league with 226 treys last season, but has taken a step back and been used off the Sixers’ bench for the last couple months. He was actually in the starting lineup last night, filling in for the injured Kevin Ollie, but shot a miserable 1 for 12 (yes, that's a dozen attempts) from behind the arc. Before last night’s dud, Korver was on a little hot streak averaging 16 points and nearly 3 rainmakers over seven games. Hopefully KK can bounce back and be a difference maker with some nice matchups next week (TOR, @SEA, @LAC, @GS).

Sit ‘em down:
Kevin Martin – Bonzi’s return is finally starting to cut into his production. See if you have a better option.
Vladimir Radmanovic – RadMan has value but he’s too inconsistent to play for only two contests this week.
Baron Davis – Still coming off the bench and shooting like Helen Keller.
Steve Nash – He missed last night’s game against the Spurs and is listed as “day-to-day.” He could play this weekend but is more likely to miss a handful of games. I know it hurts benching the reigning MVP but you should only use him if you have no other choice.

FBB Potpourri

2006-03-08T10:11:00.000-05:00

A couple of random thoughts on my mind as the fantasy deadline approaches …

- If you’re looking for a guy to make a big impact on your team who could possibly be had on the cheap, here’s a name that doesn’t get mentioned often with “cheap”: Shaquille O’Neal. Time is running out for the Diesel to win a title sans Kobe, and as Shaq likes to remind us, he gives different amounts of effort as the season progresses. After lulling through January, he picked up his scoring, blocks, and FG% last month. With Dwyane Wade hurting, Shaq could be in line for some big numbers over the next few weeks. Watching him last night, he looked as in shape as he’s been in awhile. Shaq has been “overvalued” in fantasy leagues for years, and all the talk may make him undervalued now. If you can afford the hit in FT%, he could be a really solid pickup.

- We’ve had questions in the past few weeks about managing total games played. My first few tries at fantasy basketball, I always liked to have some games stored for a late-season push. The problem is, as the end of the season nears, it’s tougher to judge who’s going to get playing time. As NBA teams fall out of contention, and others solidify their playoff spots, more coaches shake up their lineups, and as any Knicks owners know, that can be incredibly frustrating. I always ended up using my saved games on guys who ended up with 2-point, 3-board nights, and the surge just never materialized. You’re much better off keeping your games right on pace for the maximum as the year progresses.

- If you’re looking for some keepers, I’d highly recommend looking at the Atlanta Hawks. With Al Harrington likely out the door this summer, that will clear up a ton of PT for Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams. True, the Hawks will have some significant cap space to work with, but that will likely be spent on either a point guard to move Joe Johnson to the 2, or a center (if there are any to be had). Smith, Childress and Williams are all terrific keepers for next year. They must have been drafted pretty low this year, but all could be mid-round picks next fall, depending on how the summer shakes out.

All three guys are nice players, but my favorite right now is Williams, who has been pretty solid since the All-Star break. He seems to be playing more on the inside lately, getting to the line more often, grabbing more offensive rebounds, and shooting at a higher percentage. He’s shown nice development in his rookie year, and I think he’ll have enough value to be a third forward next year.

- Here’s something interesting. And by interesting, I mean frustrating. Boris Diaw is starting at center for the Phoenix Suns. This isn’t a secret. Yahoo! Sports is aware of it. I know this, of course, because their depth chart for the Suns shows Diaw as the starting center. It’s been happening for awhile now. 6 games, in fact. And yet, he doesn’t qualify at center yet in Yahoo leagues! Why? Who knows? I’m not a Diaw owner, but still, it’s pretty annoying. Anyone know when he’ll start qualifying at center?

- Finally, let me say a few words about Darko. Our resident Darko Enthusiast, PR, has been very high on the new Floridian. Right now, though, he’s helping in one category, and one category only: blocks. His stats right now are very similar to Adonal Foyle, who can be found on just about every waiver wire in the country. I’m just not convinced he’s going to do that much more – this year – than Foyle, at least if he continues to see just 20 mpg. Should he get closer to 30, he’ll be worth a closer look, but for now, I’d look for help in another place.

A Closer Look: Chris Wilcox

2006-03-07T15:50:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the lateness of today’s post, but, y’know, work. Stupid work. Anyway, one claim that I’ve made a bunch on here is that there are about 50-75 players in the league – roughly two or three per team – that are truly special players. The guys with real talent who rise above the rest. After that, everyone’s pretty much the same, and given enough playing time, the numbers will bear that out. The key for these guys is simply getting that playing time to show what they can do. We’ll be focusing on a former Terp today, so I’ll use two other former Terps as examples real quick – Juan Dixon and Steve Blake. Both guys were kind of buried in Washington, but given a chance in Portland they’ve proven they are perfectly competent players capable of putting up respectable numbers for fantasy purposes when given a certain amount of playing time. It’s all about the playing time.

In some ways, Chris Wilcox is a good data point in favor of staying in school an extra year. Maybe. He came out after his sophomore year and was able to cash in on that lottery pick rookie contract, so it’s hard to tell a guy he made a bad decision after getting a guaranteed $11 million or so. But at the same time, he was still somewhat of a project and was treated as such and has never really had the chance to prove himself on an extended basis. But no matter, he’s an “athletic” big man, so you know that once he hits free agency he’ll get some team to give him at least something close to the complete mid-level exception. But that doesn’t concern us right now. Well, it does a little since he’s going to be a restricted free agent in a few months and, as luck would have it, he looks to be the starting power forward on one of the league’s highest scoring teams for a few weeks. This could be a recipe for success.

Wilcox has had his chances as a starter before and he’s been reasonably successful, but never successful enough to turn it into anything lasting. I’ve lumped him into the same group as Stromile Swift and Melvin Ely, as big men who “just need a chance” but for whatever reason never get that chance. Because of an injury to Chris Kaman, Wilcox began last year as a starter, starting the first 19 games in the middle for the Clippers. He started off extremely strong, going for 16.2/7.7/1.7 on 55% shooting, but faltered after that, dropping off to 7.3/4.2/0.4 in his next nine starts. A couple years back, when Elton Brand got hurt after his monster 21/15 with 8 blocks opener in Japan (you think I had him on my team that year?), Wilcox was pressed into starting action and again responded quite well out of the gate. He put up 14.5/7.0/1.3 on 63% shooting, but again faltered, going for 5.8/4.2/1.4 before Brand returned. So if Wilcox is going to have some value, chances are he’ll have it sooner rather than later.

Seattle doesn’t have too much of a choice but to give him some serious PT. Nick Collison is on the shelf, Reggie Evans is in Denver, Danny Fortson is done (but obviously giving Wilcox some hair style advice). That leaves Robert Swift, Mikki Moore and Johan Petro as the only bigs on Seattle in addition to Wilcox. In other words, Wilcox has every opportunity that he needs. But keep his history in mind. Wilcox still hasn’t mastered the art of playing defense (perhaps not a problem now that he’s on Seattle) or making his coaches like him. But hey, that’s why we play fantasy basketball. Translating Wilcox’s Seattle numbers (in an admittedly small 8 game sample) out to 34-35 minutes per game, we come up with 16.1/7.3/1.2 with 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocks. Solid, unspectacular, and strangley similar to those numbers he put up when he was a starter the past two years with the Clippers (at least during his “good” runs).

But might he be capable of putting up better numbers than that? Another thing I talk about a lot is what # scoring option you are on your team. Each team has a hierarchy and the more guys you have that are at the top of the totem pole on their respective teams, the better off you’ll be. Rashard Lewis is underrated for a ton of reasons, but one reason I’ve been especially high on him the past couple of years is that there’s simply nobody else on Seattle besides Ray Allen that can be counted on as a consistent scorer. With Luke Ridnour clearly more of a distributor than a scorer, Wilcox has a real chance to be the third man.

So what’s the bottom line? Wilcox should be good to go to plug into your lineups, as long as you see that he’s starting the next time Seattle takes the court. His numbers as a starter in L.A. and his pro-rated numbers so far with Seattle show that he might actually be pretty consistent, at least for a bit. He’s not going to block many shots, but he’s also not going to miss many shots. He’s a career 53% shooter and has never been below 50% for a season. I’ve paid added – and perhaps exaggerated – attention to percentages this season, just because I think it’s so easy to overlook them compared to the counting stats. But Wilcox should shoot enough to actually make a difference there. His game-to-game consistency is where the risk lies, especially for those of you in daily lineup change formats. That’s always the risk with waiver wire pickups. Here’s an example that I recently had to endure. I pick up Ruben Patterson after he takes over as Denver’s starting SG. After he logs 36 minutes in an impressive win against Detroit, I plug him in for the next game against Houston. He ends up shooting 2-for-12 with 6 points, 5 boards and nothing else. So I take him out of the lineup for his next game. He responds with 21/5/8, 3 steals and a block on 9-of-12 shooting. I bang my head on something. This is the inherent risk with free agent pickups. So just beware.

Calling Matt Foley

2006-03-06T10:30:00.000-05:00

As we head into the home stretch for the season, you’ve got just a few days to take advantage of the trading deadline. If you’re looking for an overall strategy for the last months of the year, here’s one: Take the stud with something to prove. The motivated one. In any season, there are going to be teams that can relax a bit before the playoffs, teams that are so far out of it they go into shut-down, and then teams that are playing for their playoff lives. You want to have as many guys on teams in that last category as possible – particularly the stars on those teams. There’s no better fantasy player than the superstar that puts his team on his shoulders and carries them into the postseason. Let’s take a look at a few top picks and decide whether they’ve got motivation to pick it up down the stretch, or end up living in a van down by the river:

LeBron James – Perhaps no player will be scrutinized more over the last few months of the season than LeBron. With the Cavs already slipping in the standings, there is talk or last year’s meteoric fall out of the playoffs. With one addition done for the year (Larry Hughes), and two other drastically underperforming (Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones), it’s up to James to dominate. While it’s easy to say that James will be a top-3 player over the rest of the year, I’d go so far as to say that he’ll be the top player, overtaking Shawn Marion.

Kevin Garnett – Only the Big Ticket can be totally miserable and still be a fantasy stud. The one thing that you can say about KG is he won’t sit out any games – he’ll be in it until the end. Even though all signs point to him losing interest, my guess is he’ll be solid as usual through the rest of the season. What you see now is likely what you’ll see in the near future.

Kobe Bryant – Just behind LeBron in the “most motivated” category is Kobe. He’s shown that when he wants to, he can take over a game. At some point, he’s going to give up the “make it look like I’m a team player” attitude and instead score like a maniac. When that happens, you’re going to want him on your team. If you’re looking to make a move in points, you should do everything you can to pick up Kobe – he could very well average 40+ ppg in yet another month this season.

Tim Duncan – I’ve been talking for a little while about selling on Duncan, and I even sold him myself a few weeks ago. After a spectacular start to the season, it’s been all downhill for Timmy and his battle against Plantar Fas…um…facs…uh…his foot. His scoring was under 15 ppg last month, and he shot just 38.6% from the field and 55.6% from the line. That’s not the kind of production that’s going to propel the Spurs to a championship this summer, and so they may shut him down for a little bit. Either way, this is not a guy you want on your team. If you can sell high based on reputation alone, do it.

Allen Iverson – If anyone is going to challenge Kobe for the scoring title, it’s going to be AI. He’s been on an incredible tear lately, is posting a career-high in ppg, and is shooting at the second-highest percentage of his career. Unfortunately, his numbers are down – albeit slightly – in every other category this year. Here’s my guess – 76ers coach Maurice Cheeks is playing offensive-minded Stephen Hunter more than Sammy Dalembert early in games right now to take some of the scoring load off of AI. That may be bad for his ppg, but he’ll pick it up everywhere else and continue to be flat out awesome over the rest of the year.

Head-to-Head's Up (3/6-3/12)

2006-03-03T10:54:00.000-05:00

We’ve got about seven weeks left in the NBA season, but if you’re getting antsy for March Madness or Baseball or just want to read about former NFL running back Lawrence Phillips’ latest escapades, please stop by Sports Troopers when you have a moment to join the fun.

As for the NBA, I think I got some good plug-ins for you next week 3/6-3/12. Let me know what you think.

Five Games: San Antonio.
Four Games: Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto.
Three Games: Detroit, Houston, LAC, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
Two Games: Atlanta, New York.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Nazr Mohammed, C – After his inspired performance in last year’s playoffs many expected a bigger role for Mohammed this season. It took some time, but Nazr has finally supplanted EuroCenter Rasho Nesterovic in San Antonio’s starting lineup. Can you believe that 7-ft Rasho had only one game with 10 rebounds all season before losing his starting job? Meanwhile, Mohammed is averaging 11pts and 9 rebounds over his last six games including two double-doubles and a 20-rebound performance on Feb 15. He should have no trouble hanging on to the starting gig for the rest of the season. Nazr and the Spurs give new meaning to the phrase “busy schedule” this week with a whopping five games on tap (@LAL, @LAC, @PHO, LAL, HOU). Note: Michael Finley (who's been outplaying Ginobili recently) is also worth a look next week.

Jeff Foster, C – The Pacers' center may resemble a 7-foot vampire, but don’t be scared to take advantage of his rebounding and FG%. I like to call him a “poor man’s Tyson Chandler with no upside” which may not be all that flattering, but if you need a center who can clean the glass, Foster is your man. He’s averaging 8/14/1 over his last three contests and is shooting 55% from the floor this season. Get Dracula in your lineup for four battles next week.

Al Jefferson, PF – How many more times will I get my hopes up for Big Al before he really starts producing consistently? I was one of those fantasy owners who drafted him relatively early expecting double-doubles regularly from the big kid all year long. So he’s disappointed this year… get over it, and look ahead. The current situation in Boston seems to be a perfect opportunity for Al-Jeff to finally get it together. His frontcourt mate Kendrick Perkins will be out a couple more weeks with a dislocated shoulder and Jefferson should be given big minutes right away and could even get some starts at the five making him eligible at center. We’ve seen what rookie PF Ryan Gomes has been able to do while filling in upfront, so hopefully Jefferson can step up for four tilts next week. If he has any more setbacks I promise not to speak of him again until next season.

Antoine Walker, F – Every week it seems there's one player I reluctantly recommend plugging in. Employee #8 has long been a favorite punching bag of mine as an exemplary NBA slacker, but he still has the ability to contribute some decent fantasy numbers when he plays. ‘Toine has been getting just over 30 minutes a game lately, which is right around his threshold for fantasy relevance. Walker ’06 may be a far cry from Walker circa 2000, but he’s averaging a worthwhile 14/6/2 with 2.2 treys and 1 steal over his last half dozen games. He's a decent play at your utility spot right now while he’s outplaying fellow underachiever James Posey.

Deron Williams, PG – The first point guard selected in last year’s draft, Williams has mostly been a disappointment in Salt Lake City this season. The former Illini ball handler started the year pretty strong and even worked his way into the starting lineup for about a month, but coach Jerry Sloan got fed up with the rookie and decided to go with veterans Keith McCleod and Milt Palacio for quite some time. Deron is now back in Sloan’s SLU and has scored double figures in four straight games, averaging 15/3/5 with 2.5 triples and 1.3 thefts over that span. He is a nice addition to your squad and if (that's a BIG if) he can keep it up, he should be a solid #2 PG the rest of the way.

Marcus Banks, PG – This guy has been a very nice surprise since coming to the land of 10,000 lakes in the Szczerbiak/Davis deal a month ago. Marko Jaric already played himself out of a starting job and Banks also pushed veteran PG Anthony Carter out of the way with ease. Marcus has now started three consecutive games for the Wolves and is averaging 14/4/6 on 55% shooting and 1.5 steals over his last four. Minnesota is falling out of playoff contention fast and they may be well on their way to rebuilding mode. Banks will have his ups and downs but he makes a nice start with four games including a couple of sweet matchups @SEA and @PHO to finish the week.

Ronald or Ruben?

2006-03-02T15:04:00.000-05:00

We can all agree that the trade deadline week was a dud. There were some nice deals made in the weeks leading up to it, but deadline day itself was a whole lot of nothing. Still, we thought a few guys who switched cities would eventually have some increased value and last night seemed to signal that the time is now for two of those guys – Ronald “Flip” Murray and Ruben “I can’t retaliate because I’m on probation, so I would get in trouble” Patterson. Who’s the better bet from here on out? Let’s investigate.

A few days ago I expressed my skepticism on Flip Murray. I said that the only category he’d be consistent in would be FG%, and that wasn’t a good thing. He didn’t let me down by shooting 2-for-12 that night, but in his other two most recent games he’s shot 16-for-29. Another reason I wasn’t sold on him was that there were three guys fighting for PT at the SG position: Flip, Sasha Pavlovic and Damon Jones. But it seems that in just a week’s time Murray has established himself as the man at the position. After starting 19 straight games – during which the team went 12-7, it should be pointed out – Pavlovic has become completely irrelevant, playing just 13 minutes in the past two games. And Damon Jones … it just isn’t happening for Damon Jones this year. The bottom line is this – Flip has played 84 minutes over the past two games. It is near impossible to get that much PT and not have considerable fantasy value. I still maintain that he’s going to do some serious damage to your FG% -- he’s shooting a nice 45.5% this season, but is a career 40.5% shooter. But if you’ve watched Flip play, you know that he’s a me-first guy. He likes to make sure his stat sheet gets filled up. And everyone remembers his glorious month as Ray Allen’s fill-in a few years ago. There seems to be little reason he can’t firmly entrench himself as the team’s #3 option. When his shot’s not falling he will do plenty of damage, but as long as the minutes are there, he’s a worthy starting option. Think of him as comparable to Juan Dixon.

It took one game for Ruben Patterson to get acclimated enough to enter the starting lineup for the Denver Nuggets. He wasn’t all that impressive last night – 6-for-16, 13/7/0 with a steal and a block – but the Nuggets handled the Pistons, which was truly impressive. Patterson has stepped into a pretty good situation in Denver. The Nuggets are one of the league’s highest scoring teams, averaging just over 100 points per game. They are physically beat up, with much of their frontcourt and their starting SG fighting injuries. Patterson is a versatile player who easily slots in at SG or SF and if the team goes small, he can even handle duties at the 4 if necessary. Pattesron would be an absolutely perfect pick up for a team that’s within .05 in FG% of a bunch of teams, needs to move up in steals and is pretty isolated in FT%. Because it’s a fact, Ruben can’t shoot free throws. His career average is right around 65%, but he hasn’t even approached that number over the past few years. Think of him as more of a 55-60% free thrower who will have no trouble getting to the line enough to do some damage. On the 15 Day Rater, he’s -3.82 in FT%. That’s somewhere in between Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, and obviously without the strengths of those two. I wasn’t able to catch any of the Pistons/Nuggets game last night, but it seems like Patterson may have had a hand in keeping them to 39% shooting. With Earl Boykins, DeMarr Johnson and eventually Greg Buckner around, Patterson may find it hard to see as much PT as Murray in Cleveland. But as we get closer to the end of the season and coaches start figuring out their best lineups, rotations will get slimmer and that will mean more minutes divvied up for fewer players, which is always a good thing in fantasy land.

So who’s the better bet? The fact that I picked up Patterson last night makes me want to say him, but it looks like Murray is already quite firmly entrenched as a top option on his time. But if Patterson can get into a steals groove (check out January and February of last year when he started for the Blazers), it may be hard to tell the difference.

Playing for Keeps

2006-03-01T11:06:00.000-05:00

When it comes to fantasy sports, some strategies require you to go all-out if you want them to work. One of these, which we discussed a few weeks ago, is punting a category. The only way to succeed in punting a category is to get rid of EVERY asset you have in the category. Keeper leagues, to me, are the same way. As the trade deadline for many leagues is only about a week away, if you’re in a keeper league, you’ve got a decision to make: Are you a have, or a have-not?

Of course, qualifying as a “have” means taking into account many different variables. How many teams are in the money at the end of the season, how far out of the money you are (if you’re currently in the money, clearly, you’re a “have”), and how good a shot you have at getting in the money based on the categories. Regardless, it is critical that you make this decision right now, while there’s still time to make some trades to set you up for either a late-season push, or to stock up on keepers for next year.

So, once you’ve made your decision, it’s time to make some serious roster moves. If you’re in a keeper league, there should be a flurry of trade activity in the next week. Much like punting a category, you’ve got to get rid of EVERY asset that is helping you towards a goal you’re not attempting to reach. For example:

In our league (which isn’t a keeper league, but nonetheless), the three worst teams in the league have players like Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan on their squads. If this was a keeper league, by the end of next week, these guys should all be on teams trying to win championships. What good are these guys doing on bad teams? If you’re in last place, Kobe Bryant is just sitting there wasting value. You should be moving him to a contender in exchange for guys with good keeper value. Who cares if the move is totally lopsided – if you’ve got no shot at winning this year, getting a guy with keeper value is more valuable to your team than your first-round pick from this year.

Similarly, if you’re in contention in your league, you should be offering every player with keeper value to the guys in the bottom of the standings, searching for studs. Remember, the best opportunity for trades are when players have different values for different teams. This is a perfect example of that.

So with that said, who are the guys with the most keeper value? Well, rules are different in every league. So, it’s really tough to say with different round-value rules, lengths of time you can keep guys, etc. But odds are any guy who’s has a breakout season this year is a nice keeper (David West, for example, or Gerald Wallace). Also, many rookies are going to end up having very strong keeper value, like Charlie Villanueva or Raymond Felton.

Still, as great as David West has been this year, he’s got much more value for a team at the bottom of the standings than he does for a team at the top. Just like right now, LeBron’s got more value for a team at the top of the standings than he does for a team at the bottom. West for LeBron? Only in keeper leagues.

Buy Low, Sweet Chariot

2006-02-28T11:21:00.000-05:00

The trading deadline is about a week away for most leagues. Here’s a couple of guys to target as nice “buy-lows”:

Steve Francis
Bear with me on this one. Francis’s value hasn’t been any lower at any point in his career. He’s in a rotten situation on a rotten team, he’s showing up late to games due to “family emercengies”, and his stats are showing it. Like most players on the Knicks, he’s shooting about 1/3 of the threes that he normally would, and that should continue. Playing alongside Stephon Marbury, Jamal Crawford and Jalen Rose, he’s taken a nice hit in assists. His steals are down, but should pick up to around normal levels. So why buy on Stevie?

Well, a couple reasons. One, Larry Brown (supposedly) wanted him there, and he’s had no problem getting minutes, or shots – he was the team’s leading shot-taker again New Jersey on Friday, and his shots-per-minute has been remarkable similar in New York to what it was in Orlando. Shots don’t just happen in Larry Brown’s system – they’re awarded. And Franchise has been getting his. Secondly, watch Marbury, you’ve got to wonder how much longer he’s going to keep playing this year. He’s got a recurring shoulder injury, he doesn’t mesh well with his coach, and just watching him out there, you can tell he’s unhappy. If/when he shuts it down, that’s great news for Francis. His owners aren’t going to give him away, but depending on how big a discount you can get, Francis may be worth a shot.

Tyson Chandler
Chandler has been nothing short of a major disappointment in his post-contract year. He’s averaging a pathetic 5.4 ppg (a career low!), his 1.2 blocks are tied for a career low, and it’s just been really tough for his owners all year long. There have been signs of a turnaround in February, and he rolled off 13 straight double-digit rebounding games before Saturday’s 8-board performance in just 17 minutes. In Scott Skiles’ crazy minutes system, Chandler has been inconsistent, and it’s been nearly impossible to figure out how he’s going to do from one game to the next. So why buy on Tyson?

For no other reason than the fact that his owners have got to be sick of him. Centers have been at an extreme premium this year, and there are plenty of you guys out there who could really use the nine boards and 1.2 blocks that Chandler provides. Additionally, with the Bulls slipping away from the playoffs, Skiles is running out of time figuring out a lineup that works. One of the coaches of the year candidates last year might be out of a job this year if he can’t get his team in the playoffs. Look for him to count on Chandler to help with the push for the postseason.

Bobby Jackson
This is buying real low. Actually, odds are that Bobby’s on your league’s waiver wire. Jackson was a hot pickup after Damon Stoudamire’s season-ending injury, but since Chucky Atkins entered the fold in Memphis, Jackson’s been spiraling out of fantasy discussions. One of my favorite strategies over the final few months is buying on guys who are playing for new contracts, and Jackson is one of those guys. Sure, he’s an old, injury-prone point guard who’s sharing time, and his minutes have been inconsistent. But, he’s playing for a contract. With a strong showing in the final few months and playoffs, he could get a nice 2- or 3-year deal somewhere. Falling off the map, he’s going to be looking a one-year deals and miminum contracts. There’s some incentive for ya.

Now What?

2006-02-27T14:00:00.000-05:00

We’re in the home stretch of the fantasy basketball season. Only seven weeks remain, and by this point you should know if you have any shot at fantasy glory. The real trading deadline has passed, so there shouldn’t be any huge shifts in value unless it happens due to injury (and this will happen). It’s the time when lots of people start to focus on baseball, so certain teams in your league may stop being factors. With fewer active teams you should find it easier to move up in the standings, but at the same time, your competitors will be in the same boat. Here are some strategies to keep in mind over the last few weeks.

Try To Pull Off That Huge Deal
Why not? What do you have to lose? If you’re languishing in fifth of sixth place, go for the big splash and shake things up. This is the time to take risks. What’s the difference between finishing fifth and finishing ninth? Not a whole lot. At the same time, if you’re stuck in second place (that’s me), it might be time to make that push for the top spot. Now in many leagues, there certainly is a difference between second and fifth place, so you don’t want to take too big a risk and find yourself out of the money when the season comes to an end. But these are the two types of squads that might be able to pull off a good deal.

If you’re the team in the middle of the pack, you might have to buck the common practice of getting the best player in a deal and see if you can score a bunch of solid players in return. As great as Kevin Garnett or Dwyane Wade or whomever may be, your best bet may be find three solid players to replace them, especially if you find yourself in the middle of the pack because you haven’t used as many games as the teams above you (more on that later).

Another strategy to consider when making deals, especially for owners just trying to move up one or two spots as opposed to four or five – make a deal that will hurt the guy you’re trying to catch. It’s obvious that you want to maximize your own point total, but sometimes you might have to try and take a few points away from the guy up top. If you see that he’s vulnerable in blocks, and you have some blocks to spare and can make a deal to the guy right behind him blocks, by all means go for it. It’s not lame, it’s good, solid strategy. Further along those lines – and this sort of goes without saying – if there is a category where you can pass the team ahead of you, pay extra attention there. Because that’s not just one point you’re gaining, it’s really two, if you can pull it off.

Work the Waiver Wire Frantically
This may seen obvious, and it can be tied into the above. In a typical league – especially non-keeper leagues – the folks in the bottom half of the standings aren’t going to be paying too much attention anymore. That’s just the way it is. So that means, in theory at least, there should be more viable options available on the waiver wire as those teams not only stop trying to pick up new players, but leave their rosters populated with guys who aren’t much help. Now on one hand, if you are constantly mining the waiver wire that might mean that your team is in too much trouble to be helped. I’ve long maintained that while there are certainly waiver wire gems to be had out there, constructing a team with a solid 1 through 10 that doesn’t need much day-to-day maintenance is the way to go.

But for the team looking to make the push for a true superstar in a three-for-one deal, the higher quality on the waiver wire is what makes this possible. More and more players on the free agent list will be able to put up top 50/top 75 numbers over a short span. This will enable you to move your more established mid-level players in a bigger deal and not lose any drop off because of the stronger free options available.

It’s also time to take advantage of guys who will have as few as one games of significance. For example, Samuel Dalembert went down with a sprained ankle last week and looks to be missing his third straight game tonight. Stephen Hunter has started the last two games and even though he has seen only 42 total minutes, he has still managed to block four shots. Every little bit helps, right?

Start Using Those Games
If you’ve been hoarding games to stay under the limit in order to make a late run, now is the time to start using those games. I can’t implore this enough. There is absolutely no reason not to finish your season with the maximum number of games allowed in your league. Ideally you’ll want to be right on pace to finish up during the last week, maybe +1 or so. Remember that Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays are the busiest days in the NBA, and that’s when most teams are in action. If you have 13 good options for 10 spots, but have 13 guys suiting up on Wednesday and then only two guys on Thursday, you aren’t going to be able to take full advantage of this. Plan ahead, look at schedules and see where you have openings. Think of how you will feel if you end up losing by one point because you finished four 3s behind someone and you had three games left at SG.

Keeper Leagues
Just curious, how many of you play in keeper leagues? And what kind of rules do you use? Would it be helpful if we posted an article on good keeper league targets? Just trying to get a feel for what’s out there…

Head-to-Head's Up (2/27-3/5)

2006-02-25T00:29:00.000-05:00

Sorry about the delay folks, but my Comcast internet service has been anything but Comcastic.

So much for that “exciting week full of blockbuster trades.” It’s sad when the biggest name we can talk about at the trade deadline is a reserve point guard averaging 7 points a game. Earl Watson should complement Seattle’s Luke Ridnour well, but he is still a backup and has no fantasy value. In New York, Isiah Thomas reassured Knicks fans by saying the Marbury-Francis backcourt combo is “crazy enough that it just might work.” Way to showcase your meticulous scouting and decision-making process Zeke. Jamal Crawford’s numbers will take a serious hit, and I don’t think Marbury or Francis will fare any better in the second half of the season either. Well, time to get back to business and look ahead to week 2/27-3/5.

Four Games: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, LAC, LAL, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, Toronto, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Boston, Charlotte, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, San Antonio, Seattle.
Two Games: New Orleans.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Derek Fisher, PG - The latest report on Baron Davis’s sprained ankle has him sidelined indefinitely. This leaves the Warriors with veteran Derek Fisher running the point. The 31-year-old is actually averaging a career high 12 points per game, and has been outstanding in eight starts this season: 16/3/6 and 2.8 steals. If available in your league Fisher makes a great short-term pickup and an excellent start with a full schedule next week.

Earl Boykins, PG - Do you think Earl could have won the Slam Dunk Contest if Spud Webb got down on his hands and knees and was used as a launching pad to propel Boykins above the rim? I think he could have done it in less than 13 attempts and it would have been spectacular. Or maybe Shaq could have participated and asked Bill Russell to defend the basket during his dunk attempts. With Earl Watson getting traded back to Seattle, Boykins should benefit by being Andre Miller’s primary backup and also getting plenty of minutes at the two for the Nuggets. Boykins is averaging career highs in threes (1.0) and points (12.9), and makes a decent start with four contests coming up.

Keyon Dooling/Carlos Arroyo, PG - I’m gonna leave this one up to you. Dooling was handed a starting gig as soon as Stevie Francis was sent packin’ and he responded with an impressive 23/1/6 on Wednesday. On the other hand, recently acquired PG Carlos Arroyo was no throw-in in the Darko deal. The Magic actually expressed an intention to make Arroyo their new starting point guard shortly after the trade. The Puerto Rican native has seen a steady increase in playing time since moving to Orlando and outplayed Dooling last night putting up 18/4/4 on 7-for-11 shooting. In six years in the NBA Keyon Dooling has never really looked like an everyday player, so don’t be surprised if Arroyo takes his spot in the starting lineup sometime next week. Take your pick and plug him in.

Marvin Williams, F – Last week I recommended Atlanta’s Josh & Josh tandem, and now last year’s #2 overall pick has finally appeared on our fantasy radars. Over the last couple weeks the former Tar Heel is scoring 12.2 ppg in about 31 minutes a night. Marvin is also getting to the line more often (29 free throw attempts in last five games), which is an encouraging sign. The Hawks are still crowded at forward, but the team hits the hardwood another four times next week, so Williams may be a better option than guys like David West (only 2 games) and Udonis Haslem (3).

Darko Milicic, F/C – First of all, I apologize for jumping the gun on Darko last week. I saw that Orlando had four games on tap and I assumed he would get playing time right away. Shame on me. But 4 minutes in his first two games?? That’s less than his worst days in Detroit. Come on coach, your “system” cannot be that complicated… now it’s time to let the kid play! Milicic finally managed to log 22 minutes last night, scored 8, grabbed 5 boards, and swatted a couple shots en route to a 102-89 victory over Seattle. It will probably be another week or two before he gets steady minutes, so if you have a more reliable option use it. Otherwise if you’re in need of some help at center feel free to take a chance on Darko. He’s got four games again this week and could be a better start than PJ Brown (2) and Melvin Ely (3).

Also: Was that a Grant Hill sighting last night or just my imagination? Did Joe Smith really just drop 32 points on the Sixers? (outscoring Iverson)
How about these lines worth noting... Martell Webster getting the start and putting up 24 and 8 with four treys. Plus, I really like Travis Outlaw's prospects for a solid second-half. Celtics rookie Ryan Gomes posting 13/17/4 for his second straight double-double. Kyle Korver scored a career high 31 points on 10-for-17 FGs and 7/7 FTs.

Putting the “Dead” in Deadline

2006-02-23T20:19:00.000-05:00

“I think I'm going to do a late-afternoon/early evening post to go over all the deals that happen today”
- Me, in an e-mail to DM and PR this morning.

“Um.”
- Me, now.

Barring any late reports on a blockbuster of any kind, Deadline Day came and went this year and barely an “add” was made in most fantasy leagues. Still, there are a few things to note for fantasy players. Let’s go down the depressingly short lists:

Three guys who have more value in their new digs:

1. Flip Murray in Cleveland.
Murray should become the new starting shooting guard in Cleveland, and in fact could spend some time backing up Eric Snow at the point. He’s worth a pickup in most leagues as Sasha Pavlovic has been a pretty big disappointment as the replacement to Larry Hughes. In fact, Murray is pretty much a Hughes-lite – a combo guard who likes to shoot, despite a relatively low percentage. Murray might be the only “no-brainer” pickup for fantasy players today, but I’m not sure I could even endorse him as a no-brainer.

2. Brian Skinner in Portland.
In related news, Portland hires Superintendent Chalmers as an assistant coach. Skinner has some short term value for two very simple reasons – one, he qualifies at center, and two, his only competition for PT is Ha Seung-Jin. Until Theo Ratliff or Joel Przybilla come back, Skinner could be a nice quick-fix at center. But his long-term value is still pretty slim.

3. Marc Jackson in Oklahoma City.
Some folks are thinking that Jackson will be worth a pickup, but really, I just don’t see it happening. You’re telling me that he’ll put up anything better the than 12/5 with an OK FT% that he had last year in Philly? I mean, yes, he’s a center, but he doesn’t act like one – he won’t give you much of anything in blocks or FG%. Only if you’re desperate.

One guy who has more value (maybe) by staying right where he is:

1. Travis Outlaw.
When Ruben Patterson got moved out of Portland, Travis Outlaw saw a lot of PT open up for him. Now, admittedly, Darius Miles’ return might offset this, but Outlaw is an FBB favorite and he’s been on my radar screen for quite a while. I talked about his strengths on Wednesday, and now I’m hoping that he’ll find his way into the lineup more often.

Three guys who have seen their value take a hit:

1. Sasha Pavlovic
Pavlovic is one of those guys that has the rare talent of getting almost 30 mpg and still have minimal fantasy value. With Flip now in the equation, Pavlovic shouldn’t be considered a guy of any value whatsoever.

2. Greg Buckner
Buckner was just starting to garner some attention now that he started getting major minutes in Denver and putting up nice numbers in steals and threes. Now that Ruben Patterson has entered the equation, though, I’d expect Buckner’s minutes to take a hit (what, you though ‘Melo would hit the bench?), and put him back in fantasy purgatory.

3. Luke Ridnour
Now, this is going to be a very minor hit. But now that he’s got a real-life backup behind him, Luke might see a slight drop in minutes. Still, this might not be a bad thing, as he’s been playing a ton of minutes lately and could use a little rest. Maybe he’ll get that awful 3-point percentage back up over 30%.

That’s it. Also, due to some technical difficulties (thanks again, Comcast!) PR’s weekly “Head-to-Heads Up” column might not be up until late Friday or Saturday. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed.

Steve Francis Goes to New York; Everybody Laughs

2006-02-23T11:28:00.000-05:00

Well, today’s the big day. Everyone will be frantically refreshing ESPN.com, RealGM.com and whatever other sites to get the latest on the trades that just aren’t going to happen. There will be plenty of talk, but will there be any action? We shall see. I’m always skeptical, but that goes for everything. Just like I’ll believe a player comes back from a sprained ankle when I see him on the court, I’ll believe a trade rumor when the NBA officially announces a deal. But as we all know, a pretty big deal went down yesterday, as the Knicks swung a deal to acquire Steve Francis’s outrageous contract and his past-his-prime, overrated to begin with talent for the expiring contract of Penny Hardaway and a promising young player in Trevor Ariza. You’ve had plenty of chances to read about fallout and ramifications, but don’t you want to read one more? I thought so.

Winners
Keyon Dooling – In our league, Dooling was picked up about 45 seconds after news of the trade first broke, and the only thing the guy who nabbed him can be upset about is that he didn’t have him in time for last night’s game. Getting the start at PG and playing a team high 42 minutes, Dooling went off for 23/1/6 on 9-of-14 shooting. Good stuff. He’s certainly worth a pickup and should be a strong play in the short term. But there are some caveats. First off, the Magic are extremely depleted right now, so Dooling has little choice but to be the main man. Jameer Nelson, Grant Hill and Hedo Turkoglu are all out. Now even before today’s news that the Magic are considering buying Hill out, I had all but written him off for the season. Meanwhile Nelson is at least three weeks away from returning, while Turkoglu should be back within a week or so. So Dooling should be able to have his way for a while. But what about his game? He’s masquerading as a PG right now, but Dooling isn’t a natural at that position and has a pretty limited fantasy repertoire. His line last night sort of shows that, as he came up empty in 3s, steals and blocks. He’s averaging a decent 1.4 steals per 40 this season, right in line with his career averages. During the 02-03 season with the Clippers he attempted 2.5 3s in just 17.6 mpg, but other than that he’s never been much of a long range threat. And he’s a career 40% shooter. And he’s turned the ball over at an alarming rate this year, with 2.1 per game in just 22.3 mpg. I’d still plug him into lineups immediately and use him while he’s still likely to receive 40 minutes and be one of the team’s top scoring options. But he’s not going to put up numbers as good as Jameer Nelson when he was in a similar position.

Carlos Arroyo – I like Arroyo better as a player than Dooling, but he’s in the same boat when it comes to having a limited fantasy arsenal. He’s not going to hit many 3s or grab many steals even with lots of playing time, although he will rack up the assists if given the opportunity. Right now he seems to be in the same boat as Jose Calderon, a guy who can help in assists in the deepest of leagues, and would be worth a pickup if he could crack the starting lineup. But with Dooling and DeShawn Stevenson (yet another Magic player with limited fantasy upside) ahead of him, it doesn’t look like that will happen. It’s worth noting that Dooling is quite fragile, though, and should be go down with an injury before Nelson’s return, Arroyo could put up some nice numbers.

Dwight Howard – Remember last year when Vince Carter was traded from Toronto and Chris Bosh really picked his game up a notch and made his way into the elite class? I’m hoping we see something like that happen with Howard. It’s no sure thing, by any means, but with the Magic clearly building the team around the young big man, now is the time for him to start taking control on offense. Howard has been a very solid performer all year, but he’s still a bit tentative on offense. He hasn’t topped 25 points a single time this season and has attempted more than 15 shots in just four games. It seems like Howard would have little choice but to take a bigger role in the offense. These next few months will be very crucial in determining where Howard should be selected next year. Bosh’s total numbers last year didn’t reflect how strong he played once Carter left town, and even if he went in the third rounds of drafts this year, he’s turned out to be a bargain. We’ll see if the same happens with Howard.

Steve Francis – First off, I’d like to start a petition to get Francis’s #23 jersey taken down from the rafters in Cole Field House. I was there over the weekend and it pained me to see this chump who played just one season (and a pretty disappointing one at that, all things considered) have his jersey hanging up there with the likes of Steve Blake, Juan Dixon and Lonny Baxter. Anyway, it just wasn’t happening anymore for Francis in Orlando. He had to get out of there. Will moving to the Big Apple and the biggest mess of a team in the league help him? At this point it can’t hurt him. You probably read the Sports Guy’s theory that guys like Francis should be traded every four months or so, just so they always play inspired ball. His idea was that Francis and Marbury should continuously be dealt for each other, not share the backcourt together, but oh well. A best case scenario has Francis and Marbury clicking like Gilbert Arenas and Larry Hughes did last year. A worst case scenario has him … well, playing like he was the past few weeks in Orlando. Nowhere to go but up, right?

Channing Frye – Maybe with this trade Larry Brown will finally start to simply throw his best players out there and see what happens. Marbury, Francis and Jalen Rose are locked in for a loooong while now. We can probably call them untradeable since they are now on the one team that made it previously impossible to call any player with a horrible contract untradeable. So LB should just go with it, start those three along with Channing Frye and Eddy Curry and see what happens. Honestly, that’s a talented lineup. You might worry that Frye will never get his hands on the ball, but he will, and when he gets the ball, he rarely lets it go. He’s averaging 10.5 FGA per game in just 25.4 mpg, so he takes his shots. This is probably just wishful thinking, as is anything with the Knicks, but LB can’t keep going back and forth with Frye. Perhaps there will finally be some stability, and he can take advantage of that. Man, did I really just write that?

Losers
Jamal Crawford — Early rumors had Crawford going to Orlando as part of the Francis deal, which might have been an ideal situation for him, as it could have been him who would have inherited Dooling’s role and Gunner by Default. He could have at least approached 20 ppg and 3 3pg with big minutes in Orlando. But now he’s stuck behind the $30 million backcourt and there just doesn’t seem to be enough minutes to go around. He’ll still explode for his occasional 27 points in 24 minutes, but it’ll be pretty impossible to know when that will happen.

Quentin Richardson – Just when it looked like he might be able to salvage some value, it looks like he’ll be made irrelevant again. Really, you’ve got Francis, Marbury, Rose, Crawford and Richardson fighting for minutes at three positions. Richardson seems to be the lowest member on the totem pole there. He had scored double digits in five straight, was hitting the boards well like he usually does and was slowly re-discovering his three-point stroke. But it’s hard to see him managing much value from here on out.

Jameer Nelson – Just bad timing for his injury. A longtime FBB favorite, he could be putting up true “difference maker” numbers with Francis out of the picture. But he’ll be on the shelf for a while, and who knows if the Magic will even want to risk bringing him back for the last few weeks, depending on his progress. A tough break for owners who held onto him hoping for a situation like this. But next year? If he can nab the starting job, he is going to certainly be worth targeting in drafts.

Pickups for Potential.

2006-02-22T10:58:00.000-05:00

Got an itchy trigger finger? Want to make some moves to take advantage of the trade deadline, but tired of waiting for NBA GM’s to make a move? Here are a five guys that are nice bets to take if you’ve got an extra roster spot hanging around:

Marvin Williams, F, ATL
Williams has already been getting talked about as the Sam Bowie to Chris Paul’s Michael Jordan, but it’s way too early for that kind of talk. Williams has been mildly effective in his 23 mpg so far this season, and has seen that number creep up to 25 mpg in February. Right now, he’s got potential as a do-a-little-of-everything kind of guy. Given 35 mpg, he should contribute a bit in both defensive categories, rebounds, points, and threes. With Al Harrington a reasonable bet to get moved, Williams is worth taking a chance on.

Travis Outlaw, F, POR
Outlaw is in a similar situation to Williams, as he’s been fighting with a lot of guys for PT, and could see that PT clear up by the time the deadline passes. He’s more likely to be effective with his minutes than Williams, as he’s right now a better rebounder and defender, but the odds of him ending up in a situation where he’s got 35 mpg are much worse than Williams. Still, his potential should he end up with those kind of minutes is fairly on par with a Kenyon Martin type, where he’ll contribute mildly in points and boards, but his real value will come in his defensive numbers.

Voshon Lenard, SG, DEN
This is a very minor one. I don’t expect Lenard to be putting up huge numbers anywhere come next week, but the report that he could be released if not traded means that he should at least be playing somewhere come March. Early prediction – he’ll end up in Detroit. Regardless, if he ends up as a 20-25 mpg kind of guy for a contender means that he should be able to contribute in three pointers. He’ll be a very nice down-the-stretch pickup for roto teams looking to make a move in three pointers, and could max out as high as a MoPete-esque contributor.

Jose Calderon, PG, TOR
Calderon was one of the most added and quickly dropped guys early in the season, showing some ability as a 3rd guard but never being consistent enough. But with Mike James potentially getting moved, and Jalen Rose already gone, there aren’t many players left to handle the rock north of the border. Remember, during that 9-game stretch in late November/early December where he was seeing around 36 mpg, he put up OK numbers – 7.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 4.7 boards, along with very nice percentages. With another few months under his belt, and fewer scorers on the team, I’d like to think he could push that scoring into double digits.

Joe Smith, PF, MIL
Smith has proven that when he gets his minutes, he can be a fairly solid fantasy contributor. Now that he’s returned from injury, he’s been getting about 20 mpg in the crowded frontcourt in Milwaukee. However, there are two reason to believe that he could start seeing closer to 30 mpg. One, Jamaal Magloire has been mentioned as a potential trade candidate and that would surely open up minutes for Smith. Two, Andrew Bogut could very well be hitting the rookie wall. His FG%, points and boards are all down significantly in February, and he might benefit from a cut in minutes, meaning more time for Smith. Admittedly, Smith is a fairly low-reward pickup, but solid bigs are tough to find.

The Deadline Approacheth

2006-02-21T11:13:00.000-05:00

I was all ready to sit down here and write all about who I think will break out in the second half of the season. The problem is, it’s really tough to pick who’s going to get more minutes in the next few months when we don’t even know what teams some players are going to be on. The fact is, it’s nearly impossible to predict how some guys who are on the trading block will perform next week, much less next month. This, however, can be advantageous to your fantasy team if you guess right. For example, a lot of Ron Artest owners got an itchy trigger finger in December and traded their stud for well below value in the fear that he wouldn’t play for the rest of the season. Well, the guys who guessed right and bought Ron at a discount are really reaping the benefits right now. In order to help you guess right, we’re going to try to categorize some of these guys on the block, and suggest how to handle them:

The Malcontent Stud: Steve Francis, PG, ORL
Francis has been one of the most disappointing players in the NBA this year. His stats are down across the board, and yet again he’s let his emotions get in the way of his talent. Still, if you’re looking for a chance to take right now, this is a nice one to pick. The fact of the matter is, that when Francis is in a spot where he’s happy, he’s going to produce at a 2nd-round value. And if an NBA team is going to go about acquire Francis, you’d better believe they’re going to do their best to keep him happy, especially with 3 more years on his contract after this year.

The problem is, a couple of the teams being discussed in connection with Francis might not be great places for him. Would he really be happy playing alongside Kobe in LA? Would he fare any better than Stephon Marbury under Larry Brown in New York? Both of these spots would really be questionable for Francis. However, a move to a team like Denver could be great for Stevie. Same thing with Minnesota. In those situations, you might be able to see the sort of stats we’ve come to expect from Franchise. If you think a malcontent stud is heading for greener pastures (like, say, Baron Davis last year), then by all means make a play for him.
Other malcontent studs: Stephon Marbury, Lamar Odom.

The Impending Free Agent: Al Harrington, F, ATL
Now, in this category, I’m not including deadweight contract guys like Penny Hardaway. These are guys that are going to make noise in the offseason and these final 30 games or so are going to determine whether they’re just rich or stinking rich. That’s the good news. The bad news is, a lot of times these guys move from being stars on bad teams to playing supporting roles on teams making a move for the playoffs. Harrington, to me, seems more like the latter category. He’s certainly enjoying a nice season in Atlanta, but he’s also their most consistent scorer behind Joe Johnson and gets plenty of minutes on a really bad team.

But what happens when a guy like Harrington gets moved to a team like, say, Cleveland or Memphis (not that there are necessarily any rumors to that effect)? He becomes the third or fourth option, and his stats decrease, big time. However, there’s also the possibility that, like Cuttino Mobley or Antoine Walker last year, they’ll move to a situation where they’ll maintain their level of play. Still, it’s hard to see guys like these move to a spot where they will see a big increase in minutes or stats.
Other impending free agent: Mike James.

The Second (or Third, or Fourth, or Fifth) Chance: Eddie Griffin, F/C, MIN
Finally, we come to the favorite kind of trades for fantasy players. Everyone’s got their favorite under-performing youngster who they think, if only they got the chance to play big minutes, they would be a stud. Griffin is the perfect example. He shoots three pointers, blocks shots at a terrific per-minute rate, and qualifies at center. The problem is, he never gets consistent minutes. Now in his fourth season and on his second team, he’s still struggling to stay on the court enough to have any fantasy value. But you’d better believe that if he gets moved this week, there will be an all-out stampede to the waiver wires to pick him up (led by a couple of FBB commenters, I might add), in the hopes that his new digs will provide him with new opportunities.

The problem is, these guys rarely benefit from this kind of move. Last year, for example, guys like Jiri Welsch and Carlos Arroyo were moved mid-season, but nothing really came of either of them. What you’ve got to look at is, what is the reason that the guy isn’t succeeding where he is now? Is there a star playing in front of them? Are they in a crowded minutes situation? Are there ball-hogs keeping the ball away from them? Are they in their coach’s doghouse? If the answers are no (like, for example, in the case of Eddie Griffin), odds are they won’t be any better off in new setting than they are now.

Disappointments By Category

2006-02-20T13:06:00.000-05:00

On Thursday I took a look at some of the most pleasant surprises in each category for the season thus far. Today, the biggest disappointments.

Quentin Richardson’s 1.1 3pg
In retrospect it was easy to see it coming, but that still doesn’t make it any less disappointing. Richardson went from the best possible situation – Phoenix’s free-wheeling, fire-at-will system – to the worst in Larry Brown’s more disciplined (to put it mildly) system. Still, since Richardson was a recent acquisition and was locked into a long-term deal, you’d think that he’d see enough PT to at least continue being one of the top three-point shooters in the league. But then you remember that everyone on New York was a recent acquisition locked into a long-term deal. Injuries and an undefined rotation hampered Richardson early on and he’s gotten into an extended groove. His longest streak of consecutive games with a 3 is just four games and after leading the league with 2.9 3pg last year, he’s at just 1.1 per game this year; that’s fewer than Jumaine Jones, for comparison.

Larry Hughes’s 1.5 spg
Like Richardson, here was another league leader from last year who averaged 2.9 per game in his category and switched teams in the offseason to disappointing results. Even discounting his injury, Hughes saw his output drop almost in half. We’ve thrown out some ideas as to why this was – new defensive system, presence of LeBron as another defensive stopper, lack of a contract year push, etc. It was obviously unrealistic to expect Hughes to approach three per contest again since he never even averaged two prior to last year. But some consolidation of his gains would have been nice.

LeBron James’s 7.2 apg
A somewhat odd choice, I realize, but there is no real obvious selection. Earlier in the season it would have been Mike Bibby and perhaps he still would be the best choice as his assists are down from 6.8 to 5.4, and this is without Chris Webber around. But the fact is that Bibby’s 5.4 apg this year ties for his best output as a King save for last year, so it’s hard to be too upset. Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis have both seen dips, too. But I’ll go with LeBron even if it is just a case of us putting unrealistic expectations on him. I mean, after all, he’s 12th in the league in the category and everyone who is above him is a PG, except for perhaps Dwyane Wade. But admit it, you had visions of a triple-double season from King James, or at leat a 30/8.5/8.5 season. What you surely didn’t expect was to see his numbers go down in any of the main categories, but that’s what has happened in assists, as he’s dropped from 7.2 last year to 6.6 this year. So, it’s all relative, and it just shows how LeBron is a league of his own when it comes to crazy all around numbers, but it’s still a slight letdown.

Kurt Thomas’s 7.7 rpg
I guess we’re seeing a trend so far; players who switch teams are tending to be disappointments. Thomas was 7th in the league in boards last year, averaging 10.4 per game with the Knicks. He was then shipped to Phoenix and when Amare Stoudemire went down, big things were expected from Thomas, at least on the boards. He was one of the team’s only big men and with shots being fired up left and right, he’d have plenty of chances to put up big numbers. Instead, he’s having trouble staying on the floor and is putting up his worst rebounding numbers since the 00-01 season. He’s certainly shown flashes of dominance, such as the eight game stretch in late November/early December when he averaged 14.3 boards per game. But even though his starting spot has been largely secure, starting 46 of the team’s 49 contests, he hasn’t proven to be nearly the asset as most thought he would be.

Yao Ming’s 50% FG
According the Player Rater, he’s still the 13th best player in the league in this category, at least based on averages. But after shooting 55% last year, Yao’s drop can’t make his owners too happy. A big reason for this is that it hasn’t come with anything to offset it. Sure, his scoring is up, but only 1.3 points per game, which doesn’t come close to making up for this drop in FG%. Yao has yet to show that he can be a top rebounder, and his block totals are serviceable if not wonderful for a center. For these reasons, he needs to continue to be a truly dominant force in FG% to live up to his usually lofty draft status, and he’s just not doing so this year. It should be noted that the absence of Tracy McGrady for 13 games had a very negative impact on Yao’s FG% and his numbers with McGrady in the lineup are much better.

Jamaal Magloire’s 54% FT
In some ways we should have seen this coming, but in other ways it was a huge shock. Last year Magloire shot just 60% from the line, so this isn’t completely out of the blue. But in 03-04 he shot 75% from the line on a career high 5.7 attempts per game, and he shot above 70% the two seasons prior to that, which is quite good for a big man. So with a 60% season coming on the heels of three 70%+ seasons, it was quite reasonable to believe that last year was the outlier and Magloire would return to his career average of around 70%. But instead he’s become a huge liability, basically killing what was marginal fantasy value to begin with, especially in roto leagues. Magloire has shown no signs of breaking out of what is now a two-year funk, as he hasn’t topped 61% in any month this season. It looks like he’s just lost this skill.

Tyson Chandler’s 1.1 bpg
Chandler has been one of the season’s biggest disappointments, and this is the category where it really shows. Everyone knows about the big contract he signed in the offseason and how we all thought with Eddy Curry out of the way he would step into a starting role and do his best Marcus Camby impression. But he’s come nowhere close to that. He was hampered by some strange illnesses early in the season, which affected his play and led to his eventual benching. He seems to be over those issues now and is back in the starting lineup and playing considerable minutes – 33 mpg in the last 13 contests – but still isn’t racking up the blocks like we had hoped. He’s averaging just 1.2 bpg in those 13 starts and hasn’t topped two blocks in even one of those games.

Steve Francis’s 16.6 ppg
Not counting Amare Stoudemire, there were 20 players who averaged 20 ppg or more last season. Only three of those are below the 20 ppg mark this season, and Francis has seen easily the biggest drop off (Shaq and Stephon Marbury are the other two). Coming into this season it seemed like Francis was one of the most reliable second-tier fantasy stars around. Besides that one rough year in Houston, he’s always put up strong numbers. His 21.3 ppg during his first season in Orlando was the second highest mark of his career and on a team without another established scoring threat, there was little reason to expect much change this year. But it’s been a struggle from the start and is now just getting worse by the day, and it seems like everyone – Francis, the Magic, fantasy owners – are hoping he has a new address come Thursday. Francis is in classic “mope” mode right now, as he’s not even trying to score. He averaged 17.1 attempts per game last year, down to 12.6 this year, and just 11.5 in the new year. You can’t score if you don’t shoot and Francis seems to have little interest in that right now.

Head-to-Head's Up (2/20-2/26): Trade Deadline Edition

2006-02-17T08:59:00.000-05:00

Well I’m glad the NBA (David Stern) came to its senses and invited Gilbert Arenas to play in Houston this weekend after all. Too bad Gil had to go and finish the first half of the season with a 4-for-22 effort and 6 turnovers at Dallas. Ouch.
So we have All-Star festivities to get through this weekend and then we’re back to the real games and hopefully an exciting week full of blockbuster trades. Here’s looking at you, week 2/20-2/26.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Portland, Seattle.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LAC, Minnesota, New York, Philadelphia, San Antonio, Utah, Washington.
Two Games: Denver, Miami, Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto.

Season-long trade rumors are finally coming to fruition this week. Darko is moving to Disney World, former Terrapin Chris Wilcox swapped area codes with Vlad Rad, and Stevie Franchise just may get another ‘change of scenery’ if Isaiah Thomas continues his quest to bury the Knicks six-feet-under. Keep a close eye on pending trades as several players are sure to find themselves in new situations that could really boost their second half value.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Josh Smith/Childress, G/F – The reigning Slam-Dunk champ just put up career-highs of 21 points and 15 boards, while fellow swingman Josh Childress also scored a season-high 21 in a win over the Lakers Wednesday. We’re keeping our fingers crossed that Al Harrington will be asked to pack his bags before the Feb. 23rd deadline. Josh & Josh would immediately reap the benefits should Harrington (and his 37 mpg) depart. Smith averages an incredible 2.3 blks in only 27.5 mpg, and Childress contributes across the board but especially in steals with 1.2 spg in 28.4 minutes. Hopefully both will see 30-35 minutes a night the rest of the way and improve on their already respectable numbers. The youngsters have four games next week so get them in your lineups.

Delonte West, PG – LeBron (43/12/11) and Paul Pierce (50/7/8) may have stolen the show in an overtime thriller the other night, but Delonte also filled his stat line with 15/10/8 and 3 blocks. One of the best waiver wire pickups of the year, the versatile guard just keeps on truckin’. Jefferson, Perkins, and Wally are banged up, so West should have plenty of scoring chances in four contests next week.

Anthony Johnson, PG – Jamaal Tinsley is starting to make Marcus Camby and Fred Taylor look like iron men. He’s only appeared in 23 games this season and hasn’t been healthy for a full year since his rookie campaign. Veteran point guard Anthony Johnson has been handed the reins and asked to do what he can to help salvage Indiana’s season. A.J. has been a member of the Pacers’ starting five since the end of December and averages nearly 30 mpg as a starter. Usually just a borderline fantasy starter in deep leagues, Johnson’s hot hand (19/4/5 with 2 threes and 1.3spg in last 3 outings) makes a decent plug-and-play for four games next week.

Darko Milicic, F/C – If there ever was an ideal situation for the young 7-footer, Orlando is it. Darko’s playing time was so limited in Detroit that analyzing his stats does not really give you an indication of his potential. He’s shooting an impressive 51.5% from the floor, yet a miserable 37.5% from the charity stripe this season. But of course, his 17-of-33 FGs and 3-of-8 from the line are such small samples that they are essentially rendered meaningless. If one were to ascertain anything from his stats it would have to be his impressive 15 blocks in only 140 minutes of play this season. He’s sure to see plenty of playing time on his new team, and starting alongside league-leading rebounder Dwight Howard (12.6 rpg) seems to be a perfect fit for the Serbian big man. If you’re feelin’ Darko, get him in your lineups right away. Let's just hope for the best.

Chris Wilcox, F/C – Assuming Evans/Fortson get shipped out of town sometime before next Thursday, Wilcox will have a great opportunity to excel as the new starting PF in Seattle. Now that he lives in Starbucks capital, USA, maybe some grande caramel macchiatos can help Chris wake up and get his head in the game. The former Terp has immense talent and this appears to be a good situation for him. The Sonics frontcourt has lacked athleticism and been clogged up with the likes of Evans/Swift/Collison/Petro/Fortson for too long. Wilcox brings much needed explosiveness up front and could average 15 and 10 if he's focused and motivated. Think of him as a younger/healthier Kenyon Martin, with center eligibility to boot.

Stash ‘em or at least keep on your radar:
Antoine Walker – He was back in the SLU for a couple games before the break (scored 26 pts and hit six treys on Feb. 15). Employee #8 needs a starting gig to be a consistent fantasy contributor, and he may just land one if traded to the right team.
Shaun Livingston – Prep-to-pro point guard struggling in his second season, "the next Magic Johnson" has started three of the Clips last five games, averaging 6.7 assists in those contests. The potential is there for a monster second half if 36-year-old Cassell were to go down with an injury.
Earl Watson – Incessant trade rumors surrounding Denver’s reserve PG are making me nauseous. He could have some value if given a starting job somewhere (New York?)
Nazr Mohammed – The big man averaged 11 pts and 8 rebounds for the Knicks last season. He has been stuck on the Spurs’ bench all year, but exploded for 18 pts and 20 boards Wednesday night at Philly. He could make some noise if he were to take the starting spot from Rasho, or perhaps filling in for an injured Duncan.

Forget about ‘em and move on:
Larry Hughes – just went under the knife again and will be lucky to return for the playoffs.
Emeka Okafor – they’ve been saying he’ll be back in 3-5 weeks for over a month now. Word out of Charlotte is that he’ll likely sit for the rest of the season.
Jameer Nelson – Specialists can’t figure out what is wrong with his foot, and he is out for at least another three weeks. Even if he returns, he’ll have to fight for playing time with a crowded Orlando backcourt.
Sebastian Telfair – Stephon Marbury’s little cousin was benched in favor of the Blake/Dixon combo. Bassy needs to learn the pro game and improve on his "Dick Cheney-esque" shooting (36.6%FG) before he can be a reliable fantasy force. Maybe next year.
Marko Jaric – Yes, he may be traded, but he is just stinkin’ it up this season.
Deron Williams – Did they really draft him ahead of Chris Paul? Williams is simply not a good fit for the Jazz and Jerry Sloan is not a good fit for fantasy owners.

Also… the Knicks/Magic exchanging Jamal Crawford and Steve Francis would help all parties involved (especially their fantasy owners).
Enjoy the All-Star festivities and be ready to pounce once those trades are announced.

Pleasant Surprises By Category

2006-02-16T14:34:00.000-05:00

There’s not much going on in the NBA – at least for fantasy purposes – over the next few days, so to follow up on BV’s awards yesterday, I thought I’d hand out some awards myself. These will be for the most pleasant surprises in each of the eight standard roto categories; I’ll have disappointments on Monday.
Rasheed Wallace’s 2.1 3pg
Toward the end of his time in Portland we found out that ‘Sheed could hit the three-ball with regularity in the NBA, as he peaked with 1.5 3pg in the 02-03 season. But in his first season and a quarter with Detroit, he held back on the long ball, averaging just around one triple per contest. With trigger-happy Flip Saunders replacing triple-skeptic Larry Brown, ‘Sheed has had the green light to fire away and is averaging 2.1 3pg, which is just flat out ridiculous for a guy that qualifies at center in most leagues. He started off the season incredible hot from long range, shooting around 44% over the season’s first two months. He’s cooled down considerably since then, but he’s actually taking more shots, so his 3PM has stayed rather constant.

Tony Parker’s 54% FG
Parker’s 48% from the field last year was very nice, but there was reason to suspect that was as good as it was going to get, especially since he didn’t top 46% in any of his first three seasons. Since he primarily shoots while going to the basket he’s going to have a higher FG% than most point guards, but I don’t think anyone saw this 54% coming. Give Parker – and the San Antonio coaching staff – credit for knowing his strength and playing to it. Parker attempted at least 2.0 3pg in each of his first four seasons and never made more than 34%, which is quite poor for a point guard. So this year he’s basically eliminated that shot from his repertoire, attempting a paltry 0.5 per game, and has excelled at taking the ball to the hoop. Now if he could just work on that FT%..

Dwight Howard’s 12.6 rpg
After averaging 10 rebounds per game in his rookie campaign last season we knew Howard was going to be a monster on the boards for years to come. We didn’t know that he’d surpass Ben Wallace and Kevin Garnett as the league’s top rebounder in just his second season. He’s been held to single digit boards in just 11 of his 51 games, and in one of those he left after two minutes. He’s gone for 15 or more in 18 games we’ll be seeing his name near the very top of the rebounding stats for at least a decade or so.

Chauncey Billups’s 8.5 apg
I was as high on Billups as anyone coming into the season, mostly due to his game-to-game consistency, health and solid all-around numbers. One of his “weaknesses” was that he never put up big assist numbers for a point guard – last year’s 5.8 per game was a career high – but it was something we were able to look past. So what does he do this year? He starts handing out dimes like that dealer on the corner. Or something like that. His 8.5 per game is good for third in the league this year, and he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

Chris Bosh’s 81.7% FT
I’ve already written about Bosh’s value in percentages, and this was a pretty easy choice. Center is the one position where you are willing to concede that you probably won’t get someone who’s going to help you in FT%; in fact, you’re probably going to get someone that hurts you. But after shooting 70% and 76% in his first two seasons, Bosh is up to 82% on just over 8 attempts per game. This is just huge value and is a big reason why Bosh is an official Fantasy Stud now.

Elton Brand’s 25.4 ppg
Points is the one category where you generally won’t see too many surprises. Look at the league leaders – it wouldn’t have been too touch to predict Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson and LeBron James as the top three. Brand between 18.2 and 20.1 ppg in each of his first six seasons; he averaged exactly 20 ppg in his last two. He seemed to be locked in at a pretty established level, so that’s why his 25.4 ppg this season is such a pleasant surprise.

Gerald Wallace’s 2.2. bpg
It would be even better if he could stay on the floor, but for all the preseason talk about Josh Smith being a swingman who can help you dominate in blocks, it was Wallace that proved to be that man. We knew he had it in him, as he averaged 1.3 per game last year, but in just 4 minutes more per game, he topped the magical 2 number to get up to 2.2 per game. That includes seven games of four or more, and his average actually increases to 2.4 per game if you factor in that he went block-less in the season’s first three contests.

Chris Paul’s 2.2. spg
Rookies are the great unknown. We like to think we’re going to know what they’re going to do, but the simple fact remains that until they step out on to the NBA court, it’s a guessing game. We – and most folks, admittedly – had Paul pegged as the top rookie in this year’s class and he obviously hasn’t disappointed, recent injury issues aside. His numbers have been stellar all around, but to come into the league and rank second in assists – just ahead of established top thiefs such as Shawn Marion, AI and Jason Kidd – is something special.

Fantasy Basketblog Midseason Awards

2006-02-15T10:52:00.000-05:00

What, you thought I’d let DM give out the midseason awards? As if …

Stud of the Year: To the best-performing first-round pick.
Shawn Marion, PHO
And it really isn’t even close. With Amare sidelined, Marion has been forced to pick up his game, and boy, has he ever. His FG% is up to a remarkable 51%, and he’s a legitimate 7-category player. He’s solved his struggles at the line, going from 68% in December to 86% in January. It’s at the point where, if he keeps it up, Marion could be considered for the #1 overall pick next year. Runner-up: LeBron James.

Supporting Stud of the Year: To the best-performing second- or third-round pick.
Rashard Lewis, SEA
Lewis has been the prototypical supporting stud this year. He’s a huge asset in two categories (threes and points), and doesn’t really hurt you anywhere. I’ve been very critical of Lewis in the past because he doesn’t rebound enough to be a good forward, nor does he get many assists, but at the end of the day, he does enough of everything else to give him supporting stud of the year. Runner-up: Chauncey Billups.

Breakout Player of the Year
David West, NOK
Despite the fact that I hate him for what he did to my Wizards on Monday night, West is undoubtedly the breakout player of the year. His per-minute averages haven’t changed all that much, other than points, and he’s a perfect example of why we preach minutes above all else here at FBB. Still, can he maintain those percentages in the long run? Runner-up: Mehmet Okur.

Breakdown Player of the Year: To the premier player who’s lost the most value between draft day and today.
Steve Francis, ORL
Listen, we’ve been through a lot with Steve Francis, starting with his “99.9%” guarantee to return to Maryland for his senior year. Then there was the draft debacle when he practically died on the spot when drafted by Vancouver. Then his clashes with folks in Houston. Then his clashes with Orlando when they traded his buddy Cuttino Mobley. Still, through it all, his numbers stayed OK. But now he’s complaining again, and his suspension earlier this year got him “last straw” status here at FBB. Now he’s basically admitting he’s not playing his best, because of trade rumors, and the last straw was … well, you know. You just can’t trust the Franchise anymore as a stud, and he should be avoided until at least the middle of the third round in fantasy drafts next year. Runner-up: Stephon Marbury.

Leaper of the Year: To the player who’s made the leap to stud status.
Pau Gasol, MEM
Admittedly, this has very little – if anything – to do with Gasol’s play. But when you draft him, you know you’re going to dominate the Beards category. Plus, he’s getting real live stud minutes now that the Hubie experiment is over in Memphis, and that’s allowed him to finally live up to the promise he showed his first two years in the league. The free throws are a worry, but it’s always good to have something to work on. Runner-up: Carmelo Anthony.

Junior Leaper of the Year: To the mid-round pick who’s made his way to supporting stud status.
Samuel Dalembert, PHI
All he needed was someone to believe in him. Now that he’s getting starter’s minutes, he’s turned into a legit 2nd-tier center. His blocks are absolutely incredible, but don’t overlook his respectable FT% for a center. Runner Up: Rasheed Wallace.

Is One Steal Really Worth Sixteen Points?

2006-02-14T10:10:00.000-05:00

About a week ago in the comments section of one of our posts, JM made the following comment: “According to espn.com's player rater averaging one steal is equivalent to 16 pts, one 3pt = 7 rebs, and one blk = 4 asts.” I thought this was a pretty interesting statement, and I thought it deserved a closer look.

Before I do, though, I’d like to point out to some of our more casual readers that there’s a lot of great stuff going on in the comments section, often better than whatever junk we’re spouting out here in the blog posts. For the full FBB experience, check out what some of our more talkative readers are discussing down there. It’s pretty impressive.

Anyhow, is one steal really worth 16 points? The answer: Yes … but no. Let me explain:

First, let’s discuss how (I would guess) JM came up with this statement, and then back it up a little bit. In order to have roughly no effect on their fantasy value (as in, it’s not a strength nor a weakness, and the player rater gives you a score of 0.0), a player has to have 16 points, or 1 steal. Other quick stat checks seem to back this up. There are 57 guys averaging 16 ppg, but that goes up to 78 if you go down just a bit, to 14 ppg. Meanwhile, 81 players have 1 steal or better. Additionally, if you look at your league’s standings, there is about a 16:1 ratio for most teams’ points and steals – some higher, some lower, but 16:1 is about right.

Of course, there are differences. For example, 25 times this year, a player has snagged 6 or more steals in a game. Nobody has scored 96 points in a game (16 times 6) – in fact, the hell nearly froze over when Kobe scored 81. But nonetheless, I think it’s fair to say that the value of one steal is of about the same value as 16 points, give or take a point or two.

However, here’s where I think the two stats really break apart from each other: Their predictability. When making a move in fantasy basketball, it’s not what have you done … or even what have you done for me lately. The question is, “what are you going to do for me next?” The fantasy owners who are best able to answer this question are going to be the ones on the top of the standings come the end of the year. And while points are pretty predictable, value in steals goes all over the place. Let me prove it to you:

I took last year’s steals leaders (by average), and compared their numbers to how they’re doing this year. The change was all over the board. Larry Hughes, Mike Bibby, Lebron James and Ruben Patterson were the biggest droppers, losing 1.39, 0.65, 0.61 and 0.61 steals per game, respectively. The biggest gains to be had were by Gerald Wallace (0.73), Brevin Knight (0.48) and Dwyane Wade (0.39). Now keep in mind, we’ve said that one steal is equal in value to sixteen points. So, Mike Bibby’s 0.65 drop in steals is really the equivalent of dropping 10.4 points, which is a pretty improbable number. What’s so confounding with steals is that other than Hughes, none of these guys switched teams in the offseason. None of them have seen drastic changes in minutes, either. Steals are just quite simply a stat that is tough to predict. In fact, the top 20 in steals last year saw their per-game numbers change (either going higher or lower) by an average of 0.39 steals (the equivalent of 6.25 “points”) from last year to this.

On the other side of the spectrum, we’ve got points. The top 20 in points last year (with the exception of Amare Stoudamire) have been remarkably consistent. The biggest changes have been Kobe Bryant (+7.6), Carmelo Anthony (+5.1), and Steve Francis (-4.9). What’s more, you can explain most of the changes: Kobe went crazy, and so did Stevie, just in opposite directions. On a whole, the top 20 in points saw their numbers change by an average of 2.56 points, just about a third of the variability of steals.

So what have we learned here today? In past value, sure, a steal is worth 16 points. But if you’re looking forward to what a guy will do in future games, steals are just SO much harder to predict that you can’t really count on them, where as scorers will find their points, one way or another. But I think this could be a major reason why points are "overvalued" while defensive numbers are slightly undervalued - their consistency from one year (heck, even one month) to the next. Thoughts?

Lessons

2006-02-13T11:50:00.000-05:00

As we get into the second half of another fantasy basketball season, it’s always a good idea to stop and look at some lessons we’ve learned. These aren’t necessarily lessons about certain players, but more general trends that seem to surface every year that astute players should be aware of. So let’s look at a few and how they relate to this season.

Kenny Thomas Rule
This one’s actually a combination of two rules: 1) A “temporary fill in” is often much more than that, and 2) a “temporary fill in” on a team where the coach rides his starters is even better. As of Christmas, Kenny Thomas was entirely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He saw 25 minutes of action just once on the season up to that point and had season highs of 11 points and 8 rebounds. But then Shareef Abdur-Rahim went down with an injury and Thomas found himself in the starting lineup. At first it was unclear how long Abdur-Rahim would be out, and this might have kept some people doubting Thomas’s ability to help a team long term. (I’m sorry. Very, very sorry.) But if there was any question as to whether he should be picked up, Rick Adelman’s heavy reliance on his starters should have been the deciding factor. Thomas entered the starting lineup on Dec. 27 and even though the Kings have pretty much returned to full strength since then (with Bonzi Wells being in and then out again), Thomas has been a mainstay, even with the return of SAR. In 24 games as a starter Thomas has averaged a robust 35.7 mpg and has put up a very impressive line of 12.6/9.7/2.6 with 1.2 steals on 50% shooting. A lot of those numbers came when the Kings were quite depleted, but even over the past six games Thomas is averaging 10.5/8.8/1.7 with 1.7 steals in 35.5 mpg. Not superstar numbers by any means, but numbers that certainly shouldn’t be sitting out on the waiver wire in any decent sized league. Most of what’s been said about Thomas can also be applied to Kevin Martin, who’s been talked about here before. The lesson is that if you have a roster spot to play with and see a situation like this, the reward is certainly worth the limited risk.

Shaq/Tim Duncan Rule
This one’s pretty cut and dry – big men don’t age all that gracefully. Once they’ve peaked, they’ve peaked; it’s hard for them to return to the land of past glories. It’s easy to underestimate the beatings these guys go through on a nightly basis in the league, and then you have to take into account all the extra games they’ve played in the playoffs over the years. Tim Duncan is still a few months away from his 30th birthday, so you might say, “Hey, that’s still pretty young!” But this is his ninth season in the league, and he’s been the main man for each one of those. And you can’t just ignore four years in the ACC before that. It takes its toll. That’s why I wrote this long, convoluted column over the summer explaining why I just wouldn’t feel comfortable taking Duncan with my first pick. It looked like he was ready to prove me wrong early on as he got off to a great start, averaging 21.3/11.7/3.2 with 2.5 blocks on 53% and 78% shooting in November. But it’s all been downhill from there. As of now Duncan is averaging career lows in FG%, blocks and points. His FT% is stuck at a not-crippling-but-certainly-hurting 66%. His rebounds and assists are decent, but considerably off from his peak years. He’ll certainly rebound a bit from his current slump, but it’s time to accept the fact that he’s no longer the fantasy stud that he was.

With Shaq it was a little more obvious, but it’s still worth noting. He looked pretty spry in yesterday’s win over Detroit (speaking of which, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday – those are the days of the week I’ll take Dwyane over LeBron; I’ll still give LeBron one day), going for 31, but we’re more than halfway through the season and that’s his high game to date. This is a guy who averaged 29.7 ppg back in 99-00. As of now Shaq is averaging career lows in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and points, and his FG% is his lowest since 96-97. Going just by averages – which means his injuries aren’t being held against him – he’s at #87 on the player rater, as he just isn’t dominant enough anymore to make up for his brutal FT%. Yes, in H2H leagues he can still be of great service, but for both of these guys, it’s time to let go. For real. Next person to fall prey? It’s looking like it could very well be KG…

The FBB Rule to End All FBB Rules
Say it along with me – It’s all about the minutes. We say this a lot, but it really can’t be said enough. There are about 50, maybe 75 guys in the league who are legitimately on another level. It’s pretty obvious who these guys are. But everyone else, if you give them the same playing time, they’ll all put up about the same numbers. OK, this isn’t entirely true, but for the most part it works. It’s the idea of replacement level value that those wonderful nerds at Baseball Prospectus talk about all the time. I mean, let’s just look at yesterday’s games for example. Ryan Gomes was an afterthought of an afterthought for the entire season, a rookie who was a second round pick who got into two games in all of January. But with the Boston frontcourt depleted he found himself in the starting lineup and Doc Rivers was feeling lazy, not wanting to substitute, so Gomes ended up playing nearly 44 minutes. How’d he do? Not bad at all – 14 points, 9 boards, 2 steals, 4-of-8 from the field, perfect on 6 attempts from the line. Damien Wilkins showed he had some skills earlier when he got a temporary shot at PG for Seattle. Yesterday he got to fill in at SF for Rashard Lewis. And yes, this was a great matchup, with two high scoring teams and an extra five minutes, allowing Wilkins to play 48, and he responded with 21/10/4 with 2 steals on great shooting. I mean, even to a lesser extent, Charlie Bell was serviceable with his 40 minutes yesterday with 11/4/2 with a 3 and 2 steals. Not great at all, but 2 steals, a 3 and 4 assists are all decent. The minute is mighty.

Head-to-Head's Up (2/13-2/19): All-Star Edition

2006-02-10T11:45:00.000-05:00

Happy Friday everyone. Ok, so we got the shortest week of the season coming up before the All-Star festivities begin in Houston next weekend. Most teams are playing two games but there are a handful that hit the hardwood just once next week. Here’s a look at 2/13-2/19.

Two Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, LAC, LAL, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto, Washington.
One Game: Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Detroit, Indiana, Utah.

You should pay special attention to matchups and games played this week because the shortage of games means each contest is that much more important. I would recommend benching every one of your guys playing just one game this week, except for maybe Paul Pierce and AK-47. Yes, other teams may ONLY have one more game, but that is really TWICE as much action. So this week may be a rare instance where you should actually consider benching the likes of Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony in favor of a Luke Ridnour or Jumaine Jones.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Kevin Martin, SG – Well it looks like Bonzi Wells may have returned to action a little early reinjuring his groin in just his second game back, an injury that had already kept him out for more than a month. Sacramento will likely keep Bonzi on the bench until at least after the All-star break to ensure that he is completely recovered. In the meantime, K-Mart II has stepped right back into the starting lineup and is playing exceptionally well lately. In three games since Wells re-aggravated his crotch, Martin has been lightin’ it up with 22/6/2 on 71% shooting and a whopping 3.3 treys per night! It’s hard to tell how long Bonzi will be sidelined, but you should keep Kevin Martin in your lineups as long as he’s starting for the Kings.

Jumaine Jones, SF – Another example of a player you should take advantage of while you can. It’s like your cell phone minutes: you gotta use them or lose them (note: Cingular’s rollover plan does not apply in this analogy). Jones has been a very nice fantasy force the last couple weeks while Gerald Wallace has been out. 15/7/1 with 2.4 threes and 1.4 steals over his last ten games ain’t too shabby for an everyday starter, let alone a fill-in. And holy cow! Jones grabbed an impressive 14 boards (career high?) in a win over Philly the other night. Way to clean that glass Jumaine. Despite Charlotte’s league worst 14-36 record and countless injuries, they’ve managed to always have a handful of players with plenty of fantasy value (Wallace, Knight, Okafor, Felton, Ely, and even Brezec & Rush have all been contributors when healthy and getting minutes). You can now add J.J. to that list of "better than serviceable" Charlotte Bobcats. He’s got two home games next week.

Luke Ridnour, PG – It’s been an up and down season for the former Oregon Duck, but Luke is playing well right now and appears primed for a solid second half this season. He is averaging 14.4/3.3/7.4 and 2 thefts in seven games over the last couple weeks. Hopefully he can stay consistent and get back to hitting about 1 three-pointer a night to help his owners land a spot in their H2H playoffs. He’s the starting PG for a Seattle team that scores 102 points a game. Don’t hesitate, plug him in.

Brian Cook, PF – He was inserted into the Lakers' starting lineup earlier this week when Chris Mihm was forced to sit with a shoulder injury and he has been nothing short of spectacular in three starts: 23/7/1 with 2 trifectas on 66% shooting from the floor. Cook is not your prototypical power forward, in that he is more of finesse player who usually settles for jump shots rather than posting up. Plus, despite his 6’10 frame he is a mediocre rebounder at best. Nonetheless, he’s an excellent three-point shooter, he’s hot right now and getting plenty of minutes… so get him in your lineups for a couple of games next week.

Now Let’s talk a little about the NBA All-Star break. First of all, it is absolute monkeyshine that Wizards’ PG Gilbert Arenas got left off the Eastern Conference All-Star team. What kind of poppycock is this? The man is having the best season of his young career, he is 4th in the league in scoring (28.2 ppg), and he has his team over .500 and in the middle of the playoff hunt. What more does he have to do? Maybe he could give fans the shirt right off his back. Oh wait, he already does that... after every game. His fantasy owners’ votes alone should have been enough to propel Gil into the All-star game. Everyone always complains about various Pro Bowl/All-star ‘snubs’ each year, but this one truly is a classic case of tomfoolery. It’s not like I’m griping and making a case that Redskins’ QB Mark Brunell should be in this weekend’s NFL Pro Bowl game, but Arenas is definitely an all-pro baller in the NBA. Enough said.

How about the slam-dunk contest? Last year was one of the best competitions ever with the Birdman’s 9 missed dunks, Josh Smith’s tribute to Dominique, and Stoudemire/Nash’s creative antics reviving the excitement that used to surround the event in its earlier days. Next weekend Atlanta’s Josh Smith has the courage to return and defend his dunk title and he faces some formidable opponents in Andre Iguodala, Hakim Warrick, and Nate Robinson. The odds-makers favor Smith to repeat, but let’s take a look at the odds to win and the contestants’ specs:
1. Josh Smith, G/F – 7 to 5 odds: 20 years old, 6’9, 225 lbs
2. Nate Robinson, PG – 11 to 5 odds: 22 years old, 5’9, 180 lbs
3. Andre Iguodala, G/F – 12 to 5 odds: 22 years old, 6’6, 207 lbs
4. Hakim Warrick, F – 4 to 1 odds: 23 years old, 6’9, 219 lbs
Personally, I like either Nate Robinson (he’ll surely earn brownie points for his diminutive stature) or Iggy to take the trophy. You can’t discount high-flying Warrick either… he’s the underdog mostly due to name recognition. Who’s your pick to win this year’s Slam Dunk Contest?

Friday Foreigners ... a Day Early

2006-02-09T14:55:00.000-05:00

One of my favorite columns to write during the second half of last season was Friday Foreigners, where I took a look at players that had weird combinations of consonants and vowels and smooth looking jumpshots. Well, PR handles Fridays now, so let’s move it up a day. Will it become a regular feature? Who knows? I sort of stopped doing the whole point guard thing, just because I sort of grew tired of it. And I figured you all got the point. So instead, let’s take a look at some fer’ners! Also, apologies for the late posting – I was at work until 2 a.m. last night for reasons I’d rather not get into.

Sasha Pavlovic
The Cavs backcourt has obviously seen better days. Larry Hughes has been out for a while, Damon Jones was given every chance to take the starting SG spot and did nothing with it, and Ira Newble has some weird X-Files-esque growth on his face. You know things are bad when Eric Snow is the stabilizing force in the backcourt. Emerging from the mess is third year swingman Pavlovic. Last night marked his 11th consecutive start and he’s starting to get into a minor groove. Last night marked the fourth time in five games that he’s reached double digits in scoring, as he’s averaging 12/3.6/1.6 in that span. Nothing too impressive, obviously, but he’s putting in 2 3s per game, which gives him some marginal value. The fact that he has just 10 steals in nearly 500 minutes this season isn’t a good sign, but his shooting has consistently improved through his three seasons. Right now Pavlovic is just one of the many players in the league who can be a serviceable fill-in when he gets 30+ minutes a game, the kind of guy who might help you hold steady and offer help in a single category.

Mickael Pietrus
The Flying Frenchman has been a popular pickup lately, as he has recently entered the starting lineup for the Warriors. The early results are pretty encouraging, as in seven starts he’s averaging 15.1/5.3/1.9 with 1.9 3s and 1.1 steals. His percentages on the season are pretty awful, but as a starter he’s at 46% from the field and 73% from the line, which are very respectable. His first few starts were in place of Jason Richardson, but with J-Rich back Pietrus has taken Mike Dunleavy’s spot in the lineup, and it’s about time. Still, his numbers might have some people set up for a let down. Look at the scores of the past two games the Warriors have played – they’ve racked up a total 246 points in those contests. That’s a whole lot of points, to be sure. Once the team starts falling back to its average of a little less than 100, Pietrus will see a slight drop. The best thing for Pietrus’s value would for the Warriors to go small ball like they did at the end of last year. But the recent semi-emergence of Andris Biedrins hasn’t made this entirely possible. Both Adonal Foyle and Ike Diogu are becoming afterthoughts, but is getting – and earning – around 20 mpg. He’s not doing much more than a DeSagana Diop impersonation for the most part, but as we know, he’s got skills. Still, back to Pietrus, I’m about ready to put him into the starting lineup. My biggest worry was his percentages and that’s still a concern, especially from the line, as he’s shown bizarre inconsistency, shooting 63% in November, 44% in January and now 83% so far in February, so you really don’t know what to expect there. Hopefully he can get enough 3s and steals to balance out any possible problems there.

Hedo Turkoglu
Don’t look now, but Turkoglu is turning into an actual, legit reliable fantasy player. Granted, it’s taken three or four injuries to key players, and he’s still prone to disappear (check his 4-point game against the Wiz on Monday), but Turkoglu has unquestionably been helping teams lately, checking in at a solid #62 on the Player Rater. With Grant Hill and Jameer Nelson out and Steve Francis going through a prolonged rough stretch, Hedo and Dwight Howard have been the ones driving the Magic offense. Which does explain why the team has lost 6 of 7 games, I suppose. The most surprising aspect of Turkoglu’s emergence is that his value isn’t coming strictly from 3s. In the past it’s looked like he’s been a one-trick pony who if he wasn’t hitting 3s was going to be worthless. Instead, he’s shortened up his game, starting taking the ball to the basket and is becoming a more efficient scorer. It hasn’t necessarily helped his FG%, but he’s managed to get to the line at least 6 times in 7 of the last 11 games and the man hits his free throws. He’s also started using his size – he’s 6’10” remember – and is hitting the boards at a reasonable rate. The assists are a nice bonus, too, but it all goes back to the minutes – he’s averaging 41+ over the past 10 games. Minutes equals value, folks. It’s as simple as that. Will he be able to keep this up? Well, no, probably not. But as long as he stays on the court, he should stay in your lineup.

Marko Jaric
I hate him. He should probably die. That is all.

Rookie Revue

2006-02-08T10:02:00.000-05:00

It’s been about a month and a half since we checked in on this year’s rookies. There are two developments that will go on in the next few weeks that will have drastic effect on rookies. One is a negative: the vaunted “rookie wall” that threatens to hurt rookie numbers across the board. The actual effect of the rookie wall isn’t too clear, and it’s not definitely going to affect anyone in particular, but it’s something to think about. The other development is a positive: with a half a season under their belt, some rooks are going to start figuring out the game, force their way onto the court, and start putting up fantasy-starter-like numbers (see Raymond Felton as a perfect example). Anyhow, let’s go down the list:

Plug n’ Play

Andrew Bogut – Despite Joe Smith’s return to the court, Bogut is still a dependable second center in almost all formats. He doesn’t do anything particularly well other than shoot from the field (53%), but he does chip in enough points, boards, steals and blocks to be a fixture in your lineup.

Chris Paul – He’s the ROY. He’s getting consideration for the All-Star Game (which he shouldn’t, but that’s another story). Needless to say, he’s a great play and if you drafted him this year, odds are you got a steal. However, he’s also a classic candidate for the “rookie wall” effect, as he’s played major minutes all year, he’s small, and he’s charging all over the court at 100 mph every game.

Channing Frye – He’s in Plug n’ Play, but just barely. Less Antonio Davis means the potential for more minutes for Channing, but he’s just not earning them – his shooting is down since the new year and he’s still struggling to top 20 mpg. If he didn’t qualify at Center, he wouldn’t be here.

Charlie Villanueva – We’ve been hyping him since day one, and he’s starting to show some returns. Since the Rose trade, he’s put up 17/7.8 with 2.8 3’s and 1 block, starting numbers in any format. He’s a possible Donyell Marshall clone – and I mean that in a good way. But we’ll see how Antonio Davis cuts into his PT.

Raymond Felton – Felton is a brand new FBB favorite. He starting getting it together in January, and now in February he’s got 20/6.3/8 with 2 3’s and 2 steals. He’s also playing well alongside Brevin Knight, and while we don’t think he’ll maintain these numbers, he should put up at least 15/4/6 with a steal and a three.

Just Not There – Yet.

Sarunas Jasekivicius – I think it’s safe to leave Sarunas on the waiver wire at this point. We’ve waited all year to see him get starter’s minutes, but for whatever reason, he hasn’t gotten them. When Jamaal Tinsley went down with an injury (or eight), the minutes went to Anthony Johnson – not exactly a ringing endorsement for the ex-Terp. Still, we’ll keep him in this category.

Danny Granger – He’s very close to being a Plug n’ Play. In fact, I’m sure I’ll get a lot of flack for this. His last five games have been extremely encouraging, but let’s see him keep it up for another week or two.

Marvin Williams – I don’t think he’ll ever justify being drafted ahead of Chris Paul, but I’ve been impressed with Williams of late. He’s quite simply still learning to play the game. But his athleticism is unquestioned, his improvement has been steady, and he’ll be worth a late-round flyer next year. He’s no Darko.

Nate Robinson – If he can’t get minutes under Larry Brown with Stephon Marbury out, I don’t see any reason why he’ll get any sort of reliable minutes over the rest of the year. If he gets traded, though, there’s always a chance.

Nice Try - Maybe Next Year

Ike Diogu – Last month’s hot pickup is this month’s hot drop. He’s got promise, just not for this year.

Jarrett Jack – Listen – if you try and take minutes from our boy Steve Blake, you’re in for a rude awakening. Still, Jack has played very well and could be a nice fantasy player in the future.

Deron Williams – Milt Palacio? Really? Still probably worth a roster spot – if you’ve got room on your bench.

Luther Head – Last month’s hot pick … oh wait, I already used that line.

Salim Stoudamire – He’s not gonna get the minutes he needs to be productive, but he’s got Allan Houston-esque potential down the line.

Already Maxed Out

Jose Calderon – He’s a backup point guard on a poor NBA team. I don’t think there’s any reason to think he’ll be more than a complimentary piece this year, or even in later years.

Three Guys We’d Like to See Traded.

2006-02-07T11:16:00.000-05:00

If there’s one thing that we’re terrible at here at FBB, it’s predicting NBA trades. Still, that doesn’t mean we don’t have our wish list of guys we’d like to see switch teams. Here are three of them. Who would YOU like to see dealt?

1. Stephon Marbury. Full disclosure: I’ve been a Marbury owner all year. But that doesn’t mean I can just stand by and watch his value drop without wishing he would be traded. When you look at it, though, his numbers aren’t all that down. Sure his 18.2 ppg are his lowest in 9 years, but it’s not that far off his 20.4 career average. Yes, his 6.9 apg are a career low, but it’s not all that bad. Still, they’re not the only problems. His steals, percentages, and most of all, his threes are down from last year.

My main problem is with the threes. The Knicks were expected to be among the leaders in 3PA this year after adding known chucker Quentin Richardson to Marbury and Jamal Crawford. But no! Larry Brown has all but eliminated three pointers from the Knicks system, as th ey're actually putting up the third-least three's in the league. All three of these guys have cut their 3PA in half, seriously hurting all of their value. Meanwhile, Marbury is stewing, injured (probably), and clearly unhappy, while the Knicks just added another guy who needs the ball all the time (Jalen Rose). This isn’t good for anyone – the Knicks, Marbury, or his fantasy owners. PLEASE trade Steph.

2. Theo Ratliff. Now, I know, his contract (11.6M each of the next two years) makes him nearly impossible to deal. But I’m not so much concerned with Theo getting more time – I’m interested in seeing Joel Przybilla get about 10 more mpg, which just isn’t happening with Ratliff on his back. Przybilla was extremely overvalued by many fantasy players heading into this year, and hit the waiver wires in many leagues as he wasn’t quite able to live up to his big surge late last year.

Still, his problem hasn’t been production as much as it’s been minutes. His per 35 minute stats - 9.1/9.7 with 3.5 blocks – are pretty similar to what Sam Dalembert has been doing in his breakout year with the Sixers. The problem hasn’t been foul trouble – his 2.7 fouls are pretty reasonable for a center and actually lower than last year’s 3.1. The only reason I can see for the Trail Blazers to hold back on Przybilla is because they’re paying Ratliff so much freaking money, they’ve got to play him. Free the Perz! PLEASE trade Theo.

3. Andres Nocioni. Nocioni has the potential to be an FBB fave, he just doesn’t get enough minutes to really have an impact. Part of the problem has been foul trouble – for example, he picked up 5 in just 21 minutes against the Hawks last week, and fouled out against Denver in just 18 minutes a few weeks back. But the other problem has been crazy Scott Skiles’ crazy lineup.

Admittedly, Skiles is just working with the hand he’s dealt. Of his 10 players who get consistent playing time, just three (Othella Harrington, Nocioni, and Jannero Pargo) are over 25 years old, and only Harrington and Tyson Chandler have played in the NBA for 4 or more years. There’s just a lot of talent in Chicago that hasn’t been defined yet, and Skiles is still trying to figure out what he’s got.

Nonetheless, fantasy owners don’t have time for patience. And at some point, Skiles and the GM Jim Paxson have to pick who’s going to be worth playing 35 minutes – and who’s going to get you some nice value in the trade market. We vote for packaging Nocioni with another player from their rotation (Mike Sweetney?) for a nice, bigger piece to their puzzle. PLEASE trade Andres.

New! Updated! Top 20!

2006-02-06T11:31:00.000-05:00

I’m stealing BV’s thunder because I’ve always wanted to do one of these. As a special bonus, I’m leaving spot #20 open so you can decide who gets the call there.

1. Shawn Marion – Time to face the truth and accept the fact that The Matrix is the biggest fantasy stud there is. He simply has no weaknesses, never misses any action and puts up huge numbers on the league’s highest scoring team.

2. LeBron James – Expecting a huge second half from LBJ as he looks to singlehandedly get his team into the playoffs – and secure homecourt advantage in the first round.

3. Kevin Garnett – His days as the game’s clearcut #1 – or even #1 at all – are over. But you’d still be hard pressed to find someone (besides the two above) with better well-rounded games.

4. Kobe Bryant – I for one fully expect the tear to continue throughout the season as Kobe tries to will the Lakers into the playoffs and top MJ’s highest single season scoring average (37.1).

5. Elton Brand – His total dominance in FG%, blocks and rebounds puts him a cut above the players just below; proving that injuries from 02-03 and 03-04 were indeed flukes.

6. Dirk Nowitzki – With Dallas basically at full strength, he’s finding that there aren’t as many numbers to go around; solid play of both Diop and Dampier is killing his boards.

7. Steve Nash – Never misses a beat and is just so utterly dominant in assists that owners can be creative in filling out the rest of their roster.

8. Dwyane Wade – Tendency to get just a bit banged up is the only thing keeping him out of the top five; who cares about the lack of 3s as long as he shoots 49% on 19 shots per game as a guard (not to mention 2 steals per contest).

9. Gilbert Arenas – He gets the nod over AI solely because of his durability; completely lost his three-point stroke in January, but get ready for a barrage this month.

10. Allen Iverson – His owners knew an injury was coming and can’t be surprised if he sits out a few more contests as the season wears on.

11. Tracy McGrady – Shooting has been downright putrid lately, but he’s one of the few players capable of carrying a team when he’s at his best.

12. Andrei Kirilenko – Seeing absolutely huge minutes, which is always a worry on Utah; steals/blocks dominance is truly unique.

13. Ray Allen – Was overrated last year, but is underrated this year; hitting 3s at a ridiculous rate and averaging a career high in steals, which is quite rare for a player in his 10th year.

14. Paul Pierce – Early returns from Davis/Szczerbiak trade aren’t too hot; he’s looking to score a whole lot more and his numbers – not just FG% -- are suffering.

15. Jason Kidd – Getting better as the season progresses, which is a great sign from an aging player.

16. Chris Bosh – Center eligibility combined with incredibly consistent day-to-day production and the clear #1 role on his team make him a true stud.

17. Tim Duncan – The numbers can’t support putting him any higher, and honestly, even this might be high.

18. Marcus Camby – Yes, he’s already been injured since his latest return, but his 21/11/3 with a steal and 4 blocks is a line he’s capable of putting up every night; for teams desperate to move up, he’s worth taking a chance on.

19. Chris Paul – Going with the youth over the vet; every time you expect him to slow down (rookie wall, thumb injury) he bounces back stronger than ever.

20. ???????

Head-to-Head's Up (2/6-2/12)

2006-02-03T08:13:00.000-05:00

The NBA’s last full week before the All-Star Break. Here’s a look at 2/6-2/12.

Four Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Detroit, Golden State, Houston, LAC, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Sacramento, Seattle, Washington.
Three Games:Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Indiana, LAL, Miami, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto, Utah.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Kenyon Martin, PF – K-Mart has recovered from bankruptcy and is back in business! 18/9/1, 1.2stls, 1.4blks, 51%FG, 80%FT over his last 10 games. Those are the elusive numbers that his owners were expecting when they drafted Martin. It’s hard to blame those (myself included) that gave up on him before his recent surge, but he is paying dividends for those who were willing to take a chance on him. Camby’s return may cut into his numbers slightly, but as frail as they’ve both been, there’s no telling how long either will remain healthy. K-Mart is a must-start right now and he has four great matchups next week (@GS, CHI, DAL, @SEA).

Mark Blount, C – Blount has always been more shwag than dank as far as big men go, but his change of address may be exactly what he needed. Eddie Griffin is currently starting at center for the Timberwolves, but Blount has been coming off the bench and outplaying him the last three games (14/7/1, 1stl, 2blks, 68%FG). Mark should find himself in the starting lineup in no time. He is a smart play this week with some friendly matchups (@PHO, CLE, UTA, NOK).

Bobby Simmons, G/F – He has been disappointing this season for sure, but the former Wizard has turned it up lately for a Milwaukee team dealing with some injuries. Yet another swingman to add to DM’s list, Simmons has put up 17/4/2 and over 2 rainmakers a night on 57% shooting the last two weeks. You gotta play the hot hand with four games coming up next week.

Jamaal Magloire, C – Magloire is a consistent (yawn) fantasy producer at the five, but he is still killing his owners with atrocious foul shooting this season (54%). It’s hard to explain the sudden drop this year; maybe it has something to do with his new environment/too much Milwaukee’s Best Ice or something. Perhaps all he needs is a new nickname to help elevate his unexciting play and FT%. J-Mag? Jam Master Mags? Jam ‘Lore? Sorry, I’ll stop that now. The FT% is less of a drag in H2H leagues, plus his 11/13/1 and a swat per game over his last seven have been nice. Jammin’ Jamaal (YES!) will be a solid contributor with four contests this week.

Chucky Atkins, PG – How many grown men do you know named "Chucky"? Most of us hear the name and think either, "psycho homicidal doll" or "giant rat that serves up pizza and tokens to kids." Well this Chucky, after being dumped by Washington, was picked up by Memphis and handed a starting gig as the team’s floor leader. Atkins has scored 37 total points and hit 5 from behind the arc in his first two starts for the Grizzlies. He seems to be the answer they’ve been looking for ever since Stoudamire went down with a season ending injury. Bobby Jackson had a decent run as a starter, but now returns to the bench. Atkins is an excellent pickup right now, especially if you’re looking for some 3-point help. Plug him into your lineups with confidence this week.

Andris Biedrins, F/C – 12/8.5/2.5 over last two games. The 19 year-old Latvian has gotten more minutes than Foyle and Diogu combined over that span. Warriors do hit the hardwood four times next week, so if you're desperate at center or if you're feelin' lucky you could take a shot with him.

Could be some tough decisions to make regarding studs listed as "day-to-day." Do you bench AI (sprained ankle)? J-Rich (back)? Camby (strained shoulder)? Well it depends on the updated injury reports of course, and what your other options are. I would probably NOT start John Salmons over Iverson, because if AI were to return you’d really get burned. But a Bobby Simmons-type, who is already scheduled for an extra game (4 games rather than 3 or less) and is guaranteed playing time, would be a much safer bet.
You also have to take a look at your H2H opponent and see where their strengths/weaknesses are. If you see that your opponent is starting 4 centers (who will block plenty of shots) and you only have two shot blockers on your entire roster, you probably want to consider punting the category in order to ensure winning FT%, pts, assists, threes, stls, etc. So the whole idea of ‘punting’ or forfeiting a particular category can be a regular strategy that may change from week-to-week depending on your H2H matchup.

Other notes:
Chandler = BIG second half
Jefferson > Perkins… worth the risk, especially if you got a lot of ground to make up in your league (like me).

Who are your picks for breakout candidates the second-half of the season?

Don't Ignore the Bench

2006-02-02T12:56:00.000-05:00

Bench spots. They’re not very exciting. Some people ignore them. But they shouldn’t. Injuries happen. A lot. Depth is key. But it’s good to have a variety of types of players on your bench. Let’s take a look at some of those types.

The Unexciting Fill-In
It’s never a bad idea to use one of your bench spots on someone who is a pretty boring player with not much upside, but if you were forced to start him, he’d at least help you hold your ground. These are usually going to be older players whose best years are behind them, who aren’t too intriguing to most people in the league. Some possibilities:

James Posey – For all the minutes he gets, he should really be putting up better numbers. He averaged nearly 33 mpg in January, but was only able to put up a line of 9.1/5.7/1.3, but he added 2.5 3s and 1.1 steals. Those 3s alone make him valuable, even though he’s a crippling FG% guy.

P.J. Brown – Another totally unexciting player who can help hold down the fort in times of great distress. Brown’s numbers continue to decline just a bit, but he’s still close to 10 and 8 with solid percentages and not complete zeros in steals and blocks.

Smush Parker – His January numbers – 12/3/3.5 with 1.4 3s and 1.7 steals on 45% shooting actually make him a very worthwhile starter in most leagues. Because of his lack of game-to-game consistency, he’s best suited to the super-sub role for teams looking to actually win their league.

The Flavor of the Week
There’s nothing wrong with taking a chance on the guy with the temporary hot hand, but you probably don’t want to get too carried away with these guys. More often than not it will just be a flash in the pan, but sometimes you have to try to catch lightning in a bottle and roll with it. Some current possibilities here:

Qyntel Woods – I actually picked up Woods the other night when he had a strong game coming off missing a game with an injury. That’s always a good sign for me. I’m not sure if any of you bet on horses at all, but whenever I see a horse that has a good race coming off a layoff, I’ll always pay extra attention to him, same sort of theory in place. The Knicks are obviously a fantasy wasteland, and even though I sort of bought into bublitchki’s claim that Larry Brown loves Qyntel Woods like the pitbull abusing son he never had and he wants him to succeed with all his heart, I mean, people said the same thing about David Lee a few weeks ago and now he’s DNP-CD. Still, a three-game stretch of nearly 17/8/1 with good steals and 3s is hard to ignore. Worth a shot.

Marcus Banks – His 9/1/2 last night was nowhere near as impressive as his 20/1/6 debut with the Wolves, but it was important to note that he saw 31 minutes of action. I’m a Marko Jaric owner, and for the third season in a row, I’ve given up on him. I still haven’t dropped him, but man am I ready. All the usual caveats of bench players apply to Banks, but it might be worth taking a shot to see if he can unseat Marko.

The Temporary Fill-In
BV talked about this a bit yesterday in his column. These guys differ from the above category because they clearly are only going to have value for as long as the person they are filling in for is hurt. But if there’s one thing that’s been stressed here since FBB’s beginnings, it’s that more often than not, day-to-day means a week. We’re seeing that right now with guys like Allen Iverson and Jason Richardson. Some names…

John Salmons – He was worth consideration since he took over Kyle Korver’s spot in the starting lineup, but when AI is out, Salmons is money. This is how it works in Philly. Willie Greene filled the role last year, and now it’s Salmons’ turn. In three games sans AI, he’s been good for 18/8.3/5.7 with 2 steals, which is obviously just fantastic. Iverson is scheduled to miss at least one more game, and you know that he’s one of the more fragile superstars in the league.

Mickael Pietrus – It’s really all about the PT with these swingmen types. Give just about any swingman in the league 35 minutes and he’ll put up decent numbers. That’s how it works. In the Flying Frenchman’s three starts he’s put up a line of 16.3/6/2 with 2 3s per game. Solid stuff. Pietrus will never be a fantasy star until he improves his dreadful percentages – not to mention finds some consistent PT – but for a few games he’s not bad.

Fred Jones – What do you know, another swingman who can put up numbers when given the chance. Hey, is it just me or has Indiana had some bad luck over the past few seasons? Has anyone else noticed that? Anyway, Jones put up some big numbers last year when he was one of the team’s six players in uniform, and if Stephen Jackson is going to miss some

The Upsiders
Pretty self explanatory. Mostly young guys who are inconsistent and just waiting for that extended opportunity to show what they can do. Because of their upside, it’s easy to get excited and throw them into the lineup before they really belong.

Danny Granger – With Peja Stojakovic in town, the impressive looking rookie has lost his starting spot, but with the rest of the Pacers starters likely to come down with Bubonic Plague in the coming weeks, Granger could still have some value. He’s looking like a Shane Battier-type, one of those guys that will give you solid, but not overwhelming numbers in 3s, steals and blocks. The type of guys who can still have value even on an off night.

Charlie Villanueva – I grabbed CV after BV dropped him when I dropped B-Jax after he lost his starting job to CA. Sorry, enough of that. Anyway, I since dropped him for Woods, then watched Charlie put up one of his great lines last night. The main problem I see with him is that Sam Mitchell has shaken up his starting lineup plenty this year, but CV has never been put in there. But if Jalen Rose gets dealt or someone gets hurt, he might see his chance.

Al Jefferson – PR and I are gonna have a rumble one of these days of Jefferson. Like I said earlier in the week, he’s fine if you park him on your bench in the role of The Upsider. Yes, his numbers the past few games have been borderline starter-worthy, but it’s tough for anyone to continue to put up those numbers consistently with just 25 minutes per game. The total crappiness of the bottom the East is sort of working against Jefferson because the Celtics are nominally still in the race to get obliterated by the Heat or Pistons in the first round. Danny Ainge should fire Doc Rivers, hire someone who will start Jefferson alongside Perkins, Wally, Pierce and West and just see what they have. If that happens, I will stop all Jefferson bashing and jump on the bandwagon. Until then? Park him on the bench and hope for good thing.

So, Your Team Stinks

2006-02-01T11:08:00.000-05:00

That’s ok, it happens to the best of us. Well, not necessarily the BEST of us, but at least a lot of us. And odds are, if you’ve been reading your FBB this year, your team doesn’t stink all that bad. But still, some things are unavoidable – injuries, Larry Brown, whatever. So maybe you’re stuck in the bottom half of the league. At this point, you can be reckless – you’ve got nothing to lose. So let’s go over a few do’s and don’ts for just how reckless you can be, and some strategy to improve your odds of moving up.

DO hit the waiver wire, frantically. You’ll see a lot of discussion in our comments section about certain guys coming off of big games. Should they picked up? If you’re in the bottom half of your league, the answer is yes – right now. For example, Qyntel Woods, who’s gotten a lot of talk. For a team in contention, he’s a questionable pickup right now, because while he’s playing well now, who knows where he’ll be in the lineup next week. But for a poor team, he should have been grabbed after his big game in Philly on Saturday, and then you would have gotten a very nice game out of him last night. So what if you have to drop him next week? You got at least one or two nice games out of him. These are the kinds of guys you should be grabbing on a near-daily basis. A good spot to check on who was hot last night without going through all the box scores is ESPN’s daily leaders.

DO NOT trade away your top talent for questionable value. Just because you’re in the bottom half of your league, that doesn’t mean you don’t have great talent on your team. Right now in my league, guys like Kobe Bryant, AK-47, and Elton Brand are sitting on poor teams. They should stay there. Taking risks is one thing, but take them in the right spots. The problem with your team isn’t the stud player – it’s the guys surrounding him. Don’t fix what’s working – fix what’s not.

DO take risks on rumors. With the trade deadline coming up, there are going to be plenty of rumors going around. If you’ve got a favorite, then go for it. If you guessed right on Artest and bought him low in the week before he was dealt, you just got a huge bonus for your team. We’ll obviously discuss some of the more credible rumors out there as they come around, but generally, rumors are just smoke and mirrors, and the real deals come out of nowhere – like the Ricky Davis/Wally Szczerbiak deal.

DO NOT be on the “2” side of a “2-for-1” deal. This goes against conventional wisdom, I know. But for bad teams, the problem – more often than not – is depth. Trading away two starters can turn a team with poor depth into a team with bench players in the starting lineup. Obviously, if one of the two that you’re trading is a bench player, then this rule doesn’t apply.

DO consider punting. Hey, why not? Odds are, if you’re at the bottom of the overall standings, you’re at the bottom of one or two categories as well. Pick one, and run with it. It’s time to take a chance – that’s one with little downside if you’re already at the bottom of the standings.

DO NOT have loyalty to the players you drafted. We’ve all got those players that we pegged in the preseason as having a chance to break out this year. And many of them have played well, to be sure, but not well enough to really belong on a roster. I’m guilty of this as well. Early in the year (even during the preseason), I couldn’t stop talking about Charlie Villanueva. I drafted him late, and watched him have a couple huge games early, and continue to tease me throughout the year. And though his averages were pretty decent, I just couldn’t plug him in my lineup, because I just couldn’t trust him, so eventually I let him go. Now, this might be a bad example – Villanueva is exactly the kind of guy a struggling team should be picking up – but the point is there nonetheless. You’re going to be loyal to “your guys,” but your guys are not getting you anywhere – time to look for some new blood.

Finally, DO suggest that you do a keeper league next year. Keeps it interesting for everyone!

How to Block Punts.

2006-01-31T10:16:00.000-05:00

Errr … I mean, “How to Punt Blocks.” The concept of punting a category was brought up a couple of weeks ago. Punting, especially in a roto league, is a particularly risky way to go about doing things. For example, in our league right now, the league leader has 81 out of a potential 96 points. Punting a category here would mean that you would have to basically be first in every single category other than the one you’ve punted to stand a chance of winning the league. Not gonna happen. Now, of course, some leagues will have money going to second, third, or even fourth place. So punting in order to get to one of those spots is much more conceivable. Anyhow, rather than go on a rant about whether or not you SHOULD punt a category, the fact of the matter is this: the sooner you decide to punt, the more likely you’ll be at succeeding in reaping the benefits.

So let’s take a look at one of the easiest categories to punt: blocks. I say it’s the easiest because of a couple reasons. One, blocks are very highly valued in fantasy leagues, because they’re the scarcest asset of the scarcest position (centers). Two, their value is pretty clear, but very separated by position. For example, Delonte West’s 0.8 blocks are great from a PG perspective, and a guy looking to gain in blocks would love to add him to their team, even though there might be big men out there who will block more shots … West’s position alone gives him value in blocks.

Anyhow, my theory on how to punt blocks goes like this, and it’s really the only thing you need to know about punting any category:

Every block your team gets is wasted value.

Listen, if you’re gonna punt blocks, it doesn’t matter if your team blocks 100 shots over the whole year or just 20. 1 point in a category is 1 point in a category. Meanwhile, the rest of your league is jockeying for position in blocks, so you’ve got a commodity on your hands that you can get rid of for help in other categories. But punting a category is so much more than just getting rid of your studs in that category. I mean, if all you do to punt blocks is trade Sammy Dalembert, then you’re not doing a very good job. For example, let’s say you’ve got a guy like Vince Carter, who’s got plenty of value, and is an asset to any team. But if you’re punting blocks, he’s actually a serious detriment to your team, because his 0.7 blocks, from a SG position, are tremendous value that you can’t use. Carter’s overall value is on par with a guy like Michael Redd, who blocks a terrific ZERO shots a game – as in, none, all year long. So while the guy who has Redd on his team will see a Carter-for-Redd swap as a fairly even deal (injuries aside), for you it’s a coup – You get huge help in threes, moderate gains in both percentages, and even a slight uptick in points and steals, while only really giving up a couple boards and assists.

With that in mind, let’s look at some guys to target if you’re punting blocks:

C: Brad Miller, Zaza Pachulia. Center is the toughest position to fill with few blocks and high value. Centers with value are on the court a lot. 7-footers who are on the court a lot compile blocks. Miller and Pachulia buck this trend. They’ll contribute in other categories but neither blocks more than 0.5 shots per game – that’s as good (or bad) as you’ll get for a center that has any value.

PF: Antawn Jamison. If you’re going to punt blocks, Jamison is a must-have. Why? Think about it: The stat strength most common with good blocks is good rebounding. Turning away blocks will often mean inadvertently turning away boards. Jamison, however, grabs 9.8 boards per game while only blocking 0.1 per. He won’t single-handedly solve your boards problem, but he’s a great start.

SF: Paul Pierce, Peja Stojakovic. Pierce is similar to Jamison in that he’s got very good board numbers (particularly from a G/F), plus his FG% is nice as well, which is another category you’re going to struggle in if you punt blocks. Peja is absolutely allergic to blocks, but still has plenty of value.

SG: Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Rip Hamilton. I don’t need to tell you that Allen has value. It’s all over the place. Hamilton, though, is a great candidate – he has relatively low value compared to some other guys on this list, blocks 0.1 shots per game, but has spectacular FG% (.506).

PG: Any and all. Listen – if you’re trying to punt blocks, and your PG is getting more than 0.2 bpg, you’re just not trying hard enough.

So that’s how I’d do it. Maybe next week I’ll go over another category that I like to think is fairly easy to punt. But this is a blueprint for how to go about punting any category. Hope it helps.

Checking in on the Celtics

2006-01-30T13:22:00.000-05:00

A few teams have experienced shakeups over the past week. Today let’s take a look at one of them.

We’ll start with the stud, Paul Pierce. He has more than proven himself as a first rounder this year, bouncing back from two down years to put up numbers matching his 2000-2003 peak. The most pleasant surprise has been his 48% shooting, and he’s one of the few players who is a plus in just about every single category. According the player rater, blocks is the only one where he’s not an asset, and even there his 0.4 per game isn’t horrible if you’re using him at shooting guard. While there’s no reason to expect any serious decline from Pierce, that 48% shooting might start to drop. It already has (after being around 49% over the first two months of the season he’s been closer to 46% in January), and the departure of Davis might not help. Pierce is now really the only person on his team who can create his own shot. This might put a bit more pressure on him, and his FG% was due to drop back to his career average anyway. There’s certainly no reason to panic; he’s still the unquestioned #1 option and should continue to be a top 10 player. Just be ready for a bit of a hit in FG%.

Wally Szczerbiak landed in a pretty good spot. It’s never a good thing when a player who is having a career season and is the clear #2 option on his team is shipped out of town, but there doesn’t seem to be too much reason why he shouldn’t be able to continue his strong play. He’ll be counted on to fill the scoring void left by Ricky Davis, and should slide into the #2 option behind Pierce. He’s already fitting in, starting and playing 41 minutes in yesterady’s loss against the Bucks. Although the youth movement is on in Boston, it shouldn’t affect Wally too much. He’s got enough time and money left on his contract that he’s going to be in Boston for the long haul, so the team will be best served figuring out how he fits in with all the kids. Owners of both Wally and Ricky caught a break with this deal; trades like this almost never work out so well for guys like this.

Now let’s get to the big men, since those are the folks that everyone seems to be the most excited about. Kendrick Perkins is starting to make a believer out of me – to a certain extent. He qualifies at center and is locked in as the starter there. That’s very good. He’s one of the top rate rebounders in the league and since he re-entered the starting lineup on January 13, he’s blocked at least two shots in 7 of 9 games. Perkins is no scorer, but since most of his shots come from within five feet of the basket, it’s helped keep his shooting percentage at 55%. He’s actually been closer to 62% over those last nine games, and even if he isn’t taking more than 7 shots per contest, that’s going to help you out a whole lot in that category. He’s obviously got value at the thin position, but it seems unlikely that he’ll regularly top the 35 minute mark. And that’s going to keep him from being too valuable. See, the thing with guys like this is that they are always so enticing because you pick them up for free and you think there’s nothing but upside. But I’m telling you, it’s going to be hard to win your league with Perkins as anything more than your #3 center. In a perfect situation, he’s the guy who you make up those extra games with, not the guy you are counting on every night. He’s part of a four-man rotation of bigs, as you’re kidding yourself if you think Doc Rivers will avoid the temptation to throw Michael Olowokandi out there eventually. Everyone’s saying the right things about him not taking away time from the young guys, but I’m not convinced. If Doc thinks Kandi can help, he’ll use him, because Doc is fighting for his job right now. He wants to develop young guys, but the most pressing issue is getting some Ws. While most of us know that Kandi on the court certainly doesn’t lead to Ws, most of us know more than Doc when it comes to coaching. Also, it should be pointed out that Olowokandi is in a contract year. His one good year ever came in a contract year. I’m not sure he can repeat that, and I’m not saying he’s going to have any value – he won’t. But if he can get 15-20 minutes per game, that’s going to be bad news for both Perkins and Al Jefferson.

Speaking of Al, players like Al Jefferson ruin fantasy squads. I’ve been saying something close to this for most of the season, and I’ll continue to say it. Yes, there’s every reason to expect he’s going to be a great player someday, and that day might be relatively soon. He might even be one of those guys who over the last month of the season is a legit every day starter. But let’s get back to the facts as they are right now. He’s coming off the bench. He commits more fouls per minute than just about anybody in the league. He goes through stretches of absolute ineffectiveness that render him completely inconsistent. Just when you think he’s got it going – like a three game stretch where he averaged 13 and 7 with 2 blocks a few weeks back – he’ll follow it with the 5 and 7.5 on 31% shooting over two games. He’s been solid the last couple of games, so you know what to expect now. Like Perkins, Jefferson is only valuable to your team if you don’t need him. Know what I’m saying? If you have a solid starting 10 (or however many) and one or two decent options off the bench, than Al is a fine guy to have around for that last spot. But if it gets to a point where you have choice but to plug him in the lineup, that’s bad news. It’s all part of my general skeptical attitude towards any player that hasn’t already proven himself. Upside is an overvalued commodity in most leagues worth playing in. As boring a player as P.J. Brown is, he’s still a better bet right now than Jefferson. One simple reason is that one of Jefferson’s best traits actually works against him in fantasy. He can get to the line, but he can’t make his shots from there. Those 4-for-7s really do hurt. I know I’m about the most anti-Al person around, but I’m just trying to help. It took me many years to get off the upside bandwagon. I’ve finally done it this year and I can tell you that at the very least it’s made for a far less frustrating fantasy season.

Who would you rather have right now, Al Jefferson or Robert Swift?

Head-to-Head's Up (1/30-2/5)

2006-01-27T11:00:00.000-05:00

A well-balanced schedule next week in the NBA. Let’s look ahead at 1/30-2/5.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, LAC, LAL, Minnesota, New York, Portland, Seattle, Utah.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, New Jersey, New Orleans, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto, Washington.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Delonte West, PG – You really gotta give credit to young Delonte West who has developed very nicely in his second season out of St. Joe’s. He obviously won over the trust of coach Rivers and GM Danny Ainge as they had no qualms about including former lottery pick Marcus Banks in the Davis/Szczerbiak deal. In addition to solidifying his spot in the starting rotation, Delonte has improved his numbers each month this season and is currently putting up stats worthy of a third or fourth round pick. In 13 games in January, he’s averaging 14/5/5 with outstanding 56%FG and 84%FT. He’s also hitting 1.5 treys and 1.5 steals in the New Year. West is a no-brainer with four contests this week, including a home game against the Suns.

Juan Dixon, SG – Should we really be surprised at Juan Dixon’s success on such a barren Trailblazers squad this season? Well, Yes and No. Many of us still sport the "Juan Dixon Yo’ Mouth" Maryland Basketball T-shirts and we will never forget his MVP leadership and clutch play in the 2002 NCAA Tourney. BUT, as an undersized shooting guard, he was never really expected to be a big success at the pro level. Lo’ and behold, Juan has now started 18 straight for the Blazers and is putting up some nice numbers in the NBA. Over that span he’s delivering 17/3/4, shooting an impressive 48% and adding 1 long ball and a 1.4 thefts a game. Those are definitely everyday starter’s numbers, so he should be in your lineup for 4 games this coming week.

Eddie Griffin, F/C – After Minnesota pulled off the blockbuster trade that landed Ricky Davis and Mark Blount, Eddie G’s stint as the T-Wolves starting Center may be coming to an end soon. That said, I doubt the newly acquired Blount will be thrust into the starting lineup right away, so this week may actually be your last chance to get some good games out of Eddie Griffin. Plus, is Blount really a step up from the Kandi Man? He’s definitely a better shooter, but he is lazy on the glass and also a turnover machine with terrible hands. He may end up frustrating coach Casey as much as he did Doc Rivers in Boston. Speaking of frustrating, Griffin has given new meaning to the word for his on-again/off-again owners this season (and every season for that matter), but he has been getting some more consistent playing time lately. Over his last four games he has two double-doubles and is averaging 10/9/1 and 2.5 blocks in an encouraging 31 minutes a night. Of course his percentages are terrible, but he does not really shoot enough to hurt you much in either category. His full schedule and matchups against poor defenses (BOS, @POR, @GSW) make him worth the gamble this week.

Melvin Ely, F/C – Here’s another guy you should take full advantage of while you can. Half of the Charlotte Bobcats can be seen on the bench in their "business casual attire" these days, and the team is relieved to have Ely back this week. With Okafor and Sean May out, Euro-Softy Primoz Brezec has been manning the frontcourt and starting alongside what seems to be four guards every night. Charlotte has lost 13 of 14 and they are desperate for whatever help they can get right now. Melvin has been getting back into game shape this week, but should start and see plenty of minutes going forward. Ely makes a decent start next week, facing three suspect defenses (CLE, ATL, LAL) at home.

Tyson Chandler, F/C - Chandler is back in the Bulls SLU and in two games is averaging 13/11/1 and 1.5 blocks, shooting 84% (11 for 13) from the floor. Sure it's a small sample, but Mike Sweetney appears to be in coach Skiles’ doghouse with decreased minutes and two straight DNP’s. Keeping Chandler in your lineup this season has been about as safe as riding on recalled Firestone tires, but he is healthy now and may be primed for a second-half comeback. If you’re struggling to find a center, you could do worse than Chandler and his nice matchups this week (@DAL, @NOR, @PHO).

Also: Don’t forget to start Kobe Bryant... He has four games this week, so he could put up 300+ points.
Stevie Franchise has resurrected his season with some inspired play lately. With Grant Hill and Jameer Nelson still sidelined, he and Turkoglu are picking up the slack.
Antawn Jamison is back to his early season form after Eddie Jordan benched him briefly. In six games since returning to the starting lineup he's been spectacular: 24/10/3, 2.3 treys, 51%FG, 88%FT.

***This week's blockbuster trades will definitely have an impact on fantasy hoops as well. Peja Stojakovic will not suit up tonight but will likely be Indiana's #1 option going forward now that O'Neal has been lost for the season. It will also be exciting to see rapper Ron Artest make his debut with the Kings tonight.
Moving to Minnesota may help Ricky Davis improve on his already stellar numbers. He will get plenty of good dishes from KG and could be the team's new top scorer. Wally Szczerbiak's numbers may take a slight hit, but he will still be a solid contributor in Beantown.
Also, take note of what GM Danny Ainge said after the Celts/T-Wolves trade:
"We feel like we were moving Mark [Blount] to free up minutes and opportunities for Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson... We wanted to make it easier for the development of Kendrick and Al. That's a priority of ours."
Now that is music to the ears of Jefferson/Perkins owners. Out with the old, in with the new. It's time to give the young guns 30+ minutes a night. It's a PRIORITY for god's sake! Al Jefferson could have a monster second-half this season if he could just show some consistency.

The Dalembert Report

2006-01-26T12:33:00.000-05:00

First off – take that, BV! I got to use my Dalembert headline before you. Ha! (This has been something we’ve been discussing since the beginning of the season.) But there’s a reason besides sticking to BV (wait, that doesn’t sound right) that I’m writing about Dalembert. It’s because something very rare happened a few days ago. I made a trade. And not just any trade … a trade with BV! Actually, we’ve been trading partners before. I find that fantasy basketball is a lot like the real thing, at least in terms of dealing with other “GMs.” In real life, there are certain guys that just avoid each other and know that no trades will ever happen. For whatever reason, you just can never see eye to eye. But BV and I have had some success in the past making deals, I specifically remember trading for Tim Duncan a few years ago. Anyway, here’s the deal, and you folks out there can let us know what you think.

DM gets: Jason Terry and Samuel Dalembert
BV gets: Brevin Knight and Yao Ming

Here’s the background you need to know. Right now there is one dominant team in our 12-team, 8-category league. He’s been over 80 points for the past month, hovering between 80 and 85, with a consistent double digit lead. He’s got an incredibly strong team, no fewer than 8 points in any category, and is going to be tough to beat. BV and I are two of three teams within striking distance, hovering between 65 and 70 or so points. Since we’re at the season’s halfway point, it’s time to make a move. I initially offered Brevin Knight for Dalembert straight up. BV’s weakest category is steals; I need some help in blocks. He countered with the deal I ended up accepting. I say “ended up” because I spent a full two days deliberating over it, crunching some serious numbers.

I often say that trades in fantasy NBA are tough because you almost always end up trading from a strength to address a weakness, but you end up creating a new hole and things usually balance out and you don’t see a gain. And on the surface, this seems to be one of those situations. Getting Terry and Dalembert gives me a big boost in FG% (Yao’s great there, but Dalembert is no slouch while Terry instead of Knight is a huge gain), 3s and blocks. But I would take a huge hit in FT%, assists, steals and points. So I examined the standings. At the time of the trade I had 8 points (out of 12, again) in 3s. As of today I’m already up to 10 points, with 411 3s, while first place (the team we’re all chasing) has 421. Having Terry instead of Knight should give me about 80 extra 3s over the second half of the season. That should be enough to lift me to first in that category, getting me those points. And since one of those points would be from the first place team, that’s even better.

Blocks is another category I need a major boost in. It’s a category where one player can make a difference, and Dalembert is obviously one of those players. I sit with 7 points and 285 blocks right now. Above me it goes 324-336-343-353-384. I have lots of work to do there, obviously, and there’s no guarantee that I’ll be able to make a big leap. I crunched some numbers and figured the following. Right now I’ve used 411 games, almost exactly half of my allotted games. And I have 285 blocks. So, in theory, if everyone repeats their first half performance, I should end up with 570 blocks. But then you have to take into account that I’ve been playing with one center for much of this time and have some games in hand there. Let’s assume that Yao comes back soon and averages 1.8 blocks in 35 games over the rest of the season – perhaps that’s being a bit generous. That’s 63 blocks. And let’s assume Dalembert averages 3.2 blocks (lower than what he’s averaging now) over 40 games. That’s 128 blocks, so that’s a net gain of 65 blocks. Add that to my 570 and that gives me 635 blocks. But assuming everyone else doubles their first half numbers, it’s still not enough to get me any points. Since I have those games in hand at center and have three centers to rotate (Rasheed Wallace, Pau Gasol, Dalembert), I will need to fill that PF slot that Gasol was in with someone who can get me some blocks hopefully. It’s a risk, but playing for second place is pretty boring, right?

Now, ignoring categories for a second there’s still the issue of breaking what appears to be cardinal sin of trading: buy low/sell high. I absolutely sold completely low on Yao while buying ridiculously high on Dalembert. I freely admit this. I let Yao sit on my bench for a month and now that he’s ready to come back – with an effective McGrady taking pressure off him – I dealt him. This could really come back to haunt me, especially if Dalembert doesn’t continue his sterling play. And that’s certainly a possibility; consistency has not been his forte in his brief career thus far. But I feel like I balanced this out by selling high on Brevin Knight and buying somewhat low on Jason Terry. I love B-Knight (the inventive nickname Steve Buckhantz made for him), but he’s injury prone. He rarely gets to 70 games in a season and he’s been fighting through some nagging injuries lately. Meanwhile, Jason Terry is a top 40 player when he’s on his game. I crunched some more numbers on assists and steals, since that’s obviously where I’m losing with this exchange. I currently have 1584 assists; second place in that category has 1473. It’s a nice lead, but certainly not totally safe with half a season left. Using Terry instead of Knight, I should lose about 175 assists or so. So if you double my number and take away 175, that gives me right around 3000, which should still put me head of the next person if you double this. This is all very rough, but I figured with Terry and three other PGs plus Pau “Assists” Gasol on board, I should be able to hold steady.

As for steals, I’m currently second with 458. First place has 495 – he looks solid. There are five teams within 50 of me, and losing the top steals man in the league will certainly hurt. This is the category I’m most worried about, especially because it means that I’ll likely have to leave Marko Jaric in my lineup most of the time. Ouch. But like I said, it’s a gamble, and there’s not much fun playing for second place.

So, thoughts? I know that I didn’t give BV’s side of the story, so maybe he’ll want to chime in there. It really is a pretty even deal, with both of us addressing our weaknesses and hoping for some good luck. Will it help us get to the top of the standings? Time will tell…

Artesting Our Patience

2006-01-25T10:08:00.000-05:00

Over the last month or so, Ron Artest has been nothing more than a frustration for his owners – both in real life and in fantasy. The situation came to head last night, as he screwed up his trade to the Kings by announcing that he didn’t want to play for them. Now, you can’t blame the Kings for pulling out of the deal when they realized he would be a problem for them. Now, the Pacers and Ron’s fantasy owners are still stuck in a situation where they are getting absolutely nothing out of a prime-time player that they made a big investment in.

So, after the latest development in the Artest situation, which way will his value go? To me, there’s one big plus and one big minus for Artest owners moving forward. Let’s look at both of them.

The Plus: Artest will not go to a place where he will simply be a role player.

There may be no sound reasoning to Artest’s decision not to play for the Kings, but now that his feelings are going to be taken into account, we know that he’ll only go into a situation where he’ll be given a chance to be a star. Apparently he didn’t feel that Sacramento was a place for that to happen. When you hear this quote from Artest – “I'm letting my agent handle things. He's taken over things.” – what it really means is, “if I’m going to pack my bags, you’d better believe I’m going to want a contract extension.” No team is going to give Artest a big-money contract extension unless they’re ready to make him their premier player. The Kings weren’t ready to do that – and really, can you blame them? – and I’m not really sure that any team will be ready to do that either.

The Minus: This might not be over until after the season is though.

First, there was this gem from Artest: “If I have to sit out, I sit out the season.” So he doesn’t seem to have much motivation to get back on the court right now. Then there was the report that the Pacers could look to put Artest on unpaid suspension after this stunt, which would make them much less desperate to make a trade. Should Artest end up being unpaid, the Pacers may figure they’re better off waiting until the offseason where it’s easier to move big contracts. That would simply spell disaster for Artest owners, but the worst part is that the Pacers are unlikely to make an announcement to this effect.

The other concerning thing (ok, there are many here) is the deal that Artest ruined. Peja-for-Artest has been on the table for about a year now, and the fact that this was the one the Pacers finally tried to pull the trigger on means that the market out there just isn’t getting better. The only other team that’s been mentioned with any regularity in this thing is the Warriors, and that’s just not a very good match.

Both in the NBA and in fantasy leagues right now, Artest’s value is at an all-time low. Unfortunately for you fantasy owners, though, the Pacers have an option in front of them that you don’t have – the option of waiting until the end of the season is over to take care of this. Now, granted, this deal could end up going through later today or tomorrow and make this all moot, but for now, you’ve got to think pretty seriously about whether or not Artest belongs on your team right now – and what you might be able to get for him in a trade.

So does he belong on your team? That all depends. There’s no bigger risk than Artest right now. I said a few weeks ago that if you can get a solid starter for Artest, you should take it – something around a 6th round value, maybe even 8th. I’ll still stand by that statement. If you’re sitting near the bottom of your league standings, though, Artest is a great guy to target right now. You can likely get him for pennies on the dollar. It’s a total gamble. You feelin’ lucky?

A Quality Game Is A Quality Game

2006-01-24T12:02:00.000-05:00

I hope you don’t mind, but I’m continuing my break from point guard related columns. I mean, by this point you all know what’s going on. At least you should. And if you don’t, you probably never will. Instead, I’m going to talk about managing your roster in non-weekly leagues. Because while it’s of course vital to have the right players, it’s just as important to know how to use them. A lot of owners like to use the strategy of taking “games in hand” during the first half of the season and saving them up for a big run in the second half of the season. This is a risky strategy that can pay off if it’s managed perfectly, but more often than not, you’ll end up leaving games on the board, which is the absolute worst thing you can do, and really, is unforgivable.

I’m of the thinking that if you have quality games, use them no matter what. If you go ahead of the pace, that’s fine. Obviously, this doesn’t mean that you should just be throwing everyone on your roster into the starting lineup when they have a game. But if the situation presents itself, you have to go for it. When all is said and done, it doesn’t matter when you accumulate the stats, just that you accumulate them. Take my current situation, for example. I find myself +2 to +3 games at both PG and G. So does that mean I’m holding off on using games there to stop from getting too ahead of the pace? Not at all. I’ve got Kirk Hinrich playing some of his best ball of the season, a healthy Brevin Knight racking up assists and steals, Bobby Jackson getting a consistent 35 mpg and knocking down a bunch of 3s, Marko Jaric going through one of his good stretches with Troy Hudson ailing and Richard Hamilton and Cuttino Mobley, who I never take out of the lineup. There is really no reason to have any of those guys on my bench right now. The only reason you should save games is if you think you’ll be able to get a higher quality performance at a later date. I can’t be assured of that with those six guys above.

But I can be sure of that when it comes to my center situation. This is where I’m saving up my games, as I’m -11 there. This is my preferred way of saving up games. I look around my league and see teams who are -5 to -7 at every position, and it’s just going to be very tough for them to make up all of those games with quality performances. Yes, the waiver wire does have some better pickings later in the season as the teams at the bottom of your league probably pay less attention, but it’s still unreliable. But if you go under at one position, you can deal with that. Like I’ve said in some previous columns, I have serious center issues, which gives me something in common with probably 80% of you. Rasheed Wallace continues to be a pleasant surprise, but when Yao Ming went down and Brendan Haywood lost his marginal value at the same time, I was left with just one option. But I didn’t go the Erick Dampier/Lorenzen Wright/Francisco Elson route. Quality is quality, and those guys weren’t going to give me quality. It helped to know that Pau Gasol would eventually qualify at center (that made my weekend, as he qualifies there as of Saturday in Yahoo leagues).

I’m taking a chance here and hoping that I can trade from my one strength to help my weakness. As I continue to go over the pace at the guard positions, those players become less valuable to me. As the trading deadline nears, I put myself in a position where the value of those players will be higher to everyone else in my league than they will be for me. While there’s still no surefire way that I’ll be able to pull something off, it should help me out. Even if I’m not able to make a deal to help make up those games at center, at least I’ll be able to focus my waiver wire pickups. If you find yourself down games at every position, you have to constantly play the wire, picking up and releasing players every day over the last month just based on who is playing that night. If I’m on target except for center and am in need of blocks, I can hone in on specific players to help me in that one category. I’ve found that’s the best approach at the end of the season, using your games to make up ground in one category. A couple years ago I needed a boost in 3s at the end of the season and had no problem using my extra games on Walter McCarty during the last month, to help me specifically in that one category. This year it could be a guy like DeSagana Diop or Theo Ratliff who comes aboard to try and get me an extra 20 blocks or so over the last few weeks.

So what’s the bottom line? Don’t be afraid to use quality games when you have them. Don’t save up too many games in hand; it’s harder than you think to use them all, especially if you only have a few bench spots to play with. And if you must save up, try to focus on one category and position. Has anyone out there come up with any other strategies for dealing with this situation?

Fantasy Game Log: Phoenix Suns vs. Seattle Supersonics

2006-01-23T10:42:00.000-05:00

With all the uncertainty going on with court time for both the Sonics and Suns, I thought it might be a good idea to do a little game log of the Sunday night matchup between the two teams, and see if we can figure anything out.

8:12 – The guys I’m going to be watching the closest tonight: For the Sonics, young ‘un Robert Swift, who’s in the starting lineup over Johan Petro, and Vladimir Radmanovic, who’s been hanging on to his starting spot for dear life. For the Suns, Leandro Barbosa is back from an injury and is in the starting lineup as well, where he’ll be taking minutes from Boris Diaw and Raja Bell, among others. Starting off, Swift and Barbosa have both been pretty active, and Barbosa has gone 1-2 with both shots in transition.

8:15 – If nothing else, Swift is getting involved on both ends, setting picks, committing turnovers, goaltending a shot … hey, at least he’s active.

8:18 – Barbosa is not at all afraid to shoot – though he’s already missed two threes and had a layup blocked, you gotta like his attitude. Swift, meanwhile, set a nice screen for Ray Allen, and then next time down the floor had an alley-oop dunk in transaction. This is going to be a FAST paced game.

8:23 – Six minutes into the game, and Swift has been the most impressive player in the game so far. Right off of a timeout, they go to him inside against Diaw, and he posts up for an and-one, and makes the free throw. Still, it’s not like there’s anything resembling a center on the floor for the Suns. They’ve got Barbosa, Marion, Diaw, Nash, and Bell on the floor.

8:30 – VladRad might be just barely keeping himself out of new coach Bob Hill’s doghouse, but he’s not helping his cause much so far today. He’s gotten to the line twice now, but was clearly the fifth option on the floor when the starting lineup was on the court.

8:32 – Steve Nash is 2nd in my MVP list behind Elton Brand. He makes amazing passes so routinely … it’s no wonder that all the guys playing with him score at an amazing rate. If his teammates were hitting more of their wide-open shots, they wouldn’t be down by 8 right now.

8:36 – FBB favorite Luke Ridnour has been a minor disappointment this year in the assists category. Sure his FT% has been great, but that’s been offset by his hideous FG%. My problem with Luke is that I keep hoping he’ll make the leap to a top assists man, which he never does. It’s mostly a product of Ray Allen handling the rock so much, but for a light scorer like Luke, he’s gotta put up over 8 assists a game to have serious value.

8:42 – Johan Petro just went to town in the post, drawing comparisons to Dominique Wilkins from the Sonics announcers. What? Still, this is a nice reminder that as much as Robert Swift was impressive in the first quarter, this is against a nonexistent Phoenix interior D.

8:47 – Nick Collison just picked up two fouls in the span of 30 seconds, and takes a seat after only 5 minutes of play. Thanks for coming, Nick!

8:49 – Flip Murray is a guy who’ll always look tempting, but he’s just not a starter – in the NBA or on your fantasy team. He’s best as the spark off the bench like he is right now in Seattle, but he just doesn’t have the control to really be an effective starter where he has to learn to pace himself. He’s better off going at warp speed for 15-20 minutes, than at a normal pace for 35.

8:55 – Nash’s assists are high not just because he’s a good passer, but because his teammates just shoot the ball at every opportunity. So many possessions are one pass and shoot. The middle of the road guys – Jones, Bell, Eddie House, and Barbosa – are particularly guilty of this. Every time they get the ball they’re putting it up, resulting in a lot of questionable 20-footers.

8:59 – The run-and-gun style is also pretty good for Shawn Marion’s rebounds. Case in point, Bell just missed badly, but Marion got good position for the rebound and put it back up and in.

9:02 – Swift is about 50 pounds away from being a serviceable center. He might get picked up tomorrow if he keeps playing well tonight (10 and 5 in the first half), but he’s just too thin to put up big minutes in the post on a nightly basis.

9:05 – Halftime! Maybe we’ll see some defense in the second half. And maybe Comcast will fix my internet one of these years – which is why I’m not providing much in-depth statistical analysis. Oh well.

9:20 – Bob Hill needs a quick timeout after the Suns go on a 5 point run to start the second half. Radmanovic had a bonehead turnover and Raja Bell drained a three in transition.

9:23 – It’s like déjà vu all over again, as Nash finds Bell again for another transition three after a turnover. Most teams would take that to the hoop for the sure thing, but Phoenix is just as happy to take an open three as they are going to the lane for a contested layup.

9:25 – Rashard Lewis … man, I’m still not totally sold. He was huge in the first quarter, getting 11 points, but hasn’t scored since and he’s having big problems with Marion guarding him.

9:27 – Barbosa hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s getting so many shots, he’s gotta be worth picking up if you’ve got an opening in your bench. Meanwhile, the Suns are all of a sudden knocking down every three pointer they take. And there’s another three, this time it’s Barbosa’s second of the half, and the Suns’ fifth.

9:31 – Another triple for Barbosa. Go get him if you need threes. After another for Bell, the Suns are 7-7 from long range in the third quarter. Yikes.

9:37 – This could be a 100-100 game after three quarters. You’ve gotta keep something like that in mind when you see these inflated numbers. Not only are both teams scoring at an unbelievable pace, but neither side is playing D, and the game is close, so the starters will see their typical minutes.

9:40 - A perfect example of what I was just talking about is Luke Ridnour, who has around 20 points right now. He’s not really turning a corner, he’s just playing in a high-scoring game.

9:45 – Ya gotta love high-scoring games, for a lot of reasons, but one of them is that an offensive game doesn’t have any bearing on defensive fantasy numbers. Shawn Marion got another block just now against Flip Murray, and he’s had a couple tonight.

9:46 – Luke Ridnour is playing out of his head right now. FBB favorite! He’s got a career high 26 here, late in the third.

9:52 – Despite a rough start, VladRad has been on the court all night long, which is encouraging. He’s got a couple of threes and has been rebounding decently, as well, but they’ve been mostly cheap rebounds. Still, numbers are numbers. He just stole a board from Ray Allen. Good job, Vlad!

9:59 – Well maybe Swift won’t get picked up much tomorrow – he’s still only got 10 points and has been basically nonexistent in the second half. And of course, as I say that, he gets a nice block and then next time down grabs a tough board.

10:07 – Ray Allen has put up 13 points in the 4th quarter so far, but we’ve seen hide nor hair of Rashard Lewis.

10:09 – Even though I’m not totally enamored with Swift, these Seattle announcers love him. They were particularly impressed with how he took a deep breath before shooting a free throw. Y’know, just like Dominique Wilkins!

10:14 – Not to harp on this, but the announcers just called Swift “seven feet of lumber.” He is getting crunch time minutes, though, which is far more important than his wooden characteristics.

10:17 – Tie game, and when it matters most, the Suns are going strictly to Marion and Nash. No big surprise.

10:19 – Seven feet of lumber can’t catch the ball, and there goes the Matrix with a steal and a breakaway dunk to put the Suns up one with 15.7 left.

10:21 - Allen for three! 21 points in the 4th for Allen, and he’s been every bit as good as Kobe and T-Mac this year. Nash responds with a huge layup, and now we’re tied with 1.6 left.

Well, the game might be going to overtime (nice last shot there, Rashard Lewis), but I’m not. So what have we learned tonight? Well first off, the return of Barbosa is just another weapon for the Suns. He will take some value from Bell, Diaw, Jones, etc., and if you really need three’s I’d say pick him up. That said, the only two guys with really good value for the Suns, obviously, are still Nash and Marion. After that, it’s kind of a crapshoot night to night.

For the Sonics, Robert Swift is officially on my radar screen, but I’ll let someone else take the plunge for now. He had a nice game but against a team with no interior presence, and I need to see him put up nice numbers against an actual center before I pick him up. Radmanovic, meanwhile, has played well enough to stay in the rotation, and since I’ve got him on my team, that’s a good thing.

*** Update: After checking the box score this morning, a couple things stuck out. One, VladRad played 52 minutes, the most of any player. Two, Rashard Lewis scored only 17 of his team’s 152 points. Sure he got abused by Marion, but that’s just not very good for Rashard. For the Suns, Kurt Thomas had 5 blocks, and I didn’t remember more than two. Very sneaky, Kurt!

Head-to-Head's Up (1/23-1/29)

2006-01-20T08:28:00.000-05:00

Another busy schedule this week. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for 1/23-1/29.

Four Games: New Orleans, Houston, Toronto, New Jersey, LAC, Atlanta, Boston, Milwaukee, Denver, Utah, Golden State, Phoenix, Sacramento, Memphis, Detroit, Charlotte, Cleveland, Orlando, Philadelphia, Miami, Minnesota.
Three Games: Indiana, San Antonio, Chicago, Washington, Seattle, Dallas, New York, Portland.
Two Games: LAL.

According to The Salt Lake Tribune, with his point and rebound totals already in double figures in a blowout win over the Raptors, Kirilenko spent much of the fourth quarter trying to get the two assists that he needed to record his first career triple-double. When he was just one short, he grabbed an offensive rebound, passed to teammate Devin Brown, and immediately told him to shoot the ball. Brown converted despite defensive pressure, and Kirilenko celebrated with a fist-pump. Brown said after the game, "I had to shoot it regardless because he's up there stat-watching."
…LOL, wouldn't it be great if all your fantasy players were this adamant about filling their stat-line?

You probably don’t need me to tell you that Andrei Kirilenko (20/9/6, 2.8spg, 3.3.bpg in Jan) and Samuel Dalembert (13/11/1, 3.6bpg, 65%FG) have been wicked monsters lately. That said, make sure AK-47 and Slammin’ Sam are in your lineups this week.
As long as he stays healthy, Magic PG Jameer Nelson looks like an everyday starter for the rest of the season. Minutes should not be a concern whether he’s coming off the bench or not. Grant Hill will be lucky to play half of their remaining games, and Steve Francis’s nickname going forward will now be "Migraine," since "Franchise" doesn’t exactly fit the bill anymore.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Morris Peterson, G/F – Sharp-shootin’ Mo Pete was never really a flashy fantasy player but he's been rather solid this season. The former Spartan is posting career highs in pts(14.3), rebounds (4.8), threes (1.9), and has come on strong lately. Over his last 11 games he is averaging 16/5/3 with great percentages (50%FG , 87%FT) plus 2.3 treys and a theft per contest. Save for one game in which he was tossed early for pimp-slappin Vince Carter, Mo Pete has logged 40 minutes a night over that span. Peterson has a full schedule coming up and faces some suspect defenses next week (@LAL, @DEN, CHI, @MIL), so don’t be scared to plug him in like a Glade air freshner.

Josh Childress, G/F – Childress has yet to breakout as many of us had hoped, but he is gradually improving his game and contributing consistently off the bench for the lowly Hawks. It wouldn’t hurt if he were a bit more aggressive on offense as his 54% shooting from the floor and 52% from downtown this season are downright nasty. He’s averaging 10/6/2 with 1 spg, 0.7 bpg, 0.7 threes, and great percentages (59%FG, 75%FT) in January. It’s nothing spectacular but he helps you in every category. Three out of four matchups this week against defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league (CLE, PHO, @CHI) will help fill your fantasy boxscores.

Kenyon Martin, PF – I stopped shopping at K-Mart and gave up on the gimpy Nugget about a month ago, but he’s delivered some big numbers recently. Fresh off consecutive double-doubles, he’s averaging 15/11/1 with a steal and a block over his last four games. I still don’t trust him any farther than BV can throw him, but you might as well roll the dice and get him in your lineup for four games this week, especially while Cotton Camby is still out.

Juwan Howard, F – "Juwan to buy me a six-piece Chicken McNugget?" How lame was that commercial? I hate to recommend such a softy, but you can’t ignore Howard’s numbers in ’06: 18/9/1 on 48% shooting. He’s obviously reaping the benefits playing on a team without Yao, T-Mac, Stromile, and Derek Anderson, so don’t get too excited. Juwan is about as boring as they come, but he can help out right now if you’re in need.

Bobby Jackson, PG – Damon Stoudamire’s backup has put up pretty decent numbers (14/5/4, 1.9 threes, 1spg) since being inserted into the starting lineup a couple weeks back. He may be listed as a point guard but the 33-year-old hasn’t averaged more than 3.3 assists/game since his rookie season. His value is basically limited to 3-pointers and scoring, but he makes a solid start right now while he is healthy and getting plenty of PT (34 mpg in Jan).

Raymond Felton, PG – He’s started seven games in a row now and is beginning to show a little more consistency. He’s averaging 13/5/4 with a respectable 46%FG and 1 three-pointer a game over that span. Starting SG Kareem Rush has been nursing injuries for about a month now, and Brevin Knight is still in and out of the lineup with back spasms. The former Tar Heel should continue to improve and see plenty of minutes this coming week.

I almost listed SG Kevin Martin here, but he has just been too inconsistent over the last month filling in for Bonzi Wells. Check out this interesting stat though: in Martin’s 13 starts, the Kings have a 5-1 record when he plays 37+ minutes, but are only 2-5 when he logs less than 37 min. Rick Adelman would be wise to get his second-year guard more time on the court.
A couple others you should consider: SG Jamal Crawford - now starting while Marbury is out. C Kendrick Perkins - back in Boston's SLU with Blount soon to be shipped out of town (12.3 pts, 8.3 rbds, 1.3 blks, 68%FG in last 3 starts).