Bad News Bosh

At this point in the year, when opportunity knocks, you’ve gotta be ready to answer the door. And opportunity just knocked in the form of Chris Bosh going down “indefinitely,” as in, for awhile. It’s not every day that a guy who leads his team in points and boards goes down, and now there are 15.5 shots a game that were going to Bosh that are up for grabs. Now, granted, Mike James, Charlie Villanueva, and Morris Peterson will get the majority of those shots, but there are a few guys on the waiver wire that could now be useful to a couple of teams. Let’s take a look at them:

Pape Sow
Sow, who was drafted in 2004 by the Heat and subsequently dropped, surfaced once last year with the Raptors, and then was resigned in August and thrown into the D-League. He wasn’t really expected to do much there, but then out of nowhere put together 19.7/11.6 with 1.4 steals and 1.6 blocks with the Arkansas Rimrockers. So now, he’s back in the NBA, and – for some reason – he’s been starting at center for the Raptors on a consistent basis. And though he’s “starting” in that at the beginning of the game he’s on the court, he is by no means your typical starter, only seeing 17 minutes in games that he starts. But in those 17 minutes, he’s putting up decent lines – 4.8/4.1 with 1 steals and .5 blocks.

So you would expect that with Bosh out, Sow would start seeing more minutes, but I don’t think it’s going to happen to the extent that it could. Sow’s inability to stay on the court isn’t as related to the minutes available to him as it is to his tendency to get into foul trouble. On Sunday against Milwaukee for example, he fouled out in a season-high 27 minutes. Last Friday he picked up 5 fouls in just 15 minutes on the court, and last week against the Knicks amassed 4 fouls in just 10 minutes. Still, his potential to put together nice defensive numbers while not damaging your percentages means that he’s worth a waiver for those of you with extra games to play at center.

Matt Bonner
If you’re planning on making a run in threes, and Bonner is sitting on your waiver wire, you’re just not working hard enough. Since the All-Star break, he’s been seeing about 25 mpg and knocking down 1.8 3’s per contest, all while qualifying at C, which makes him invaluable to certain fantasy squads. This should be enough to make Bonner picked up in those leagues where he hasn’t been grabbed yet. He should be good for 30 mpg and at least 2 3’s while Bosh is out, while contributing spectacular FT% from the C spot. Granted, he won’t be at the line all that much, but finding a center who simply won’t hurt you at FT% is a major bonus.

Rafael Araujo
Ha ha, of course I’m kidding. Araujo isn’t just in the dog house, he’s … um … he lives in the dog house? He signed a lease? Anyways, the point is, crying isn't gonna bring him back, unless your tears smell like dog food. So you can either sit there crying and eating can after can of dog food until your tears smell enough like dog food to make your dog come back -- or you can go out there and find another player.

---

On a side note, this doesn’t deserve it’s own column, but what the hell has gotten into Ben Wallace lately? I mean, I understand that he’s not exactly a “good” free throw shooter, but he might be single-handedly ruining my fantasy team with his performance lately. In March, he’s been shooting 25.5% from the line. That’s not just paltry, it’s pathetic. C’mon, Big Ben …

Roster Management: Using Those Games

It’s sad, but true – there’s less than one month left in the NBA regular season, and that less than one month to make your big run to the top of the standings. With this in mind, let’s take a look at one of the real taboos of fantasy sports: not using all of your available games. Leaving games on the board at the end of the year can be killer when you’re left 4 rebounds shy of an extra point in the standings. So let’s see if I can’t help you get the most out of your remaining games, with a few tips:

Stop Stocking Games
I’ve mentioned this before, probably on numerous occasions, but if you wait until the last week of the season to use those extra two games you’ve got at PF, you’re making a mistake. It’s much easier to find a reliable option right now than it will be in mid-April, when lots of coaches go into Larry Brown mode. Right now, playing rotations are still pretty stable, and you have a pretty good idea what you’re going to get from guys on a night-to-night basis. By the end of the year, rotations are in flux, starters are sitting with stubbed toes, and the backups are losing time to THEIR backups. This week will be better than next week, which will be better than the week after that. It all goes downhill from here.

Get Flexible
An extra game in a, um, “multi-position” position is far more valuable than those in a single-position position. For example, it’s much better to have 3 games left at your F spot than at your SF spot, because the F spot can be filled by many more guys than the SF spot. So what you need to do is start consolidating your extra games in spots where you’re more flexible. If you’ve got a choice between filling a game at PG or at G, then fill it at PG. If you have a choice between G or Utility (the most valuable position at this time of year), then by all means put the guy at the Guard spot. You’re much better off going into the last week of the season with 3 extra games to use at Utility than at a traditional spot.

Eyes on the Prize
The extra games you’ve got now need to be used – but that doesn’t mean you should use them recklessly. Pick a target category, and use those extra games as much as you can to move up in that one category. Just because you’ve got a spot available at C doesn’t mean that you need to use that spot for typical C categories like blocks or boards. If you need threes, for example, take a flyer on a Clifford Robinson or Matt Bonner for that position. This late in the year, it’s very easy to find those positions that you can really make a move in, and those which you’re pretty stuck. Use that to your advantage.

Don’t Sabotage Yourself
In the cumulative categories, it can never hurt to have a guy play one more game. Looking for steals? The more games you use, the more steals you’ll have. With the percentages, though, more is not necessarily better. You’ve got to be very careful that you’re not hurting yourself more than you’re helping yourself. For example, if you’re going after blocks, that means you’re going to be playing a lot of big men. Unfortunately, big men can be pretty damaging from a FT% perspective. So keep a close watch on your percentages when you’re using up these games.

Worth the Wait?

One of the best moments in the NBA season occurred this past Thursday when Amare Stoudemire took the court in Phoenix. Stoudemire is the most exciting big man in the league and depending on the night, he can certainly give LeBron, Dwyane and Kobe a run for their money when it comes to the most fun player to watch, period. He didn’t look too rusty either, going for 20 and 9 with a pair of blocks in just 19 minutes. So all of those owners who stashed him on the bench all season in hopes of a late season push were probably thrilled. “If he can put up 20 and 9 in 19 minutes in his first game, he’ll be putting up 30 and 10 in no time!” Well, not quite. Game Number Two wasn’t the same rousing success as Amare put up just 6 and 5 in 17 minutes. He’s been complaining of soreness in both knees, which isn’t too surprising, and he may actually be more of a problem for your fantasy team right now than a true asset.

Why’s that? Because – just like at the beginning of the season – he’s the ultimate temptation, but far from the sure thing. At this point in the season, you need the most out of every game you use. With some members of your league likely inactive due to their standings position, it should mean that they are even more quality free agent options available, meaning there’s little excuse for having a clunker. If you’ve held onto Stoudemire for this long there’s a good chance you’ll want to see your patience pay off, but that could be working against you. The eagerness to plug Stoudmire in the lineup might backfire. Don’t consider what you have already invested when making decisions going forward. Look at things completely objectively. If you spent a draft pick on him and have been stashing him all year (more on that in a bit), don’t use that as your reasoning to get him in your lineup. He should only be in your lineup if he’s the best option you have available. And even though a minute played for Phoenix is more valuable than a minute played for any other team, and even though everyone needs a center, it’s hard to endorse a player who will be lucky to see 25 minutes per game over the rest of the season. If I learned anything in the one economics class I took in college -- and that’s open for debate – it’s the sunk cost. You can’t let whatever price you paid for Amare earlier on affect your decisions now.

It’s also a good time to reflect on whether it was worth it drafting Stoudemire at the beginning of the season. The best-case scenario had Stoudemire coming back around the All-Star break, but you had to be the most optimistic person in the world to think that was going to happen. A smart organization like Phoenix knows better than to rush its franchise player back from injury before he’s completely healed. Getting back for the final 16 games is really the best one could have hoped for, and that includes the slow ramp up time. In our 12-team league with 13 roster spots on each team, Stoudemire went in the 8th round. This was ridiculously early; I can’t imagine too many leagues in which he went any earlier than this. But just to prove a point, let’s take a look at some of the players drafted after Amare: Bobby Simmons, Mike James, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Nenad Krstic, Bonzi Wells, Shane Battier, Gerald Wallace, Jameer Nelson, Ricky Davis, Eddie Jones, Luol Deng, Raja Bell, Charlie Villanueva, Mike Miller, Raymond Felton, T.J. Ford, Chris Kaman. Think that owner wouldn’t mind having one of those players instead of 16 games of middle Amare?

The draft is by far the most important day of the season. Each pick should be treated preciously. The trend throughout the league these days is to be overly cautious when it comes to injuries, especially with elite players. There is too much money tied up in these guys to allow GMs and coaches to do anything risky. There are obviously different levels of risk – Jason Kidd’s injury at the start of last year simply nowhere near as serious as Stoudemire’s, for example – but it’s just very hard to ever endorse the drafting of a player who absolutely everyone agrees will miss at least the first half of the season.

While we’re on the topic of the Suns, one more quick note. When possible I’m going with the “they’re playing the Suns? I’m gonna plug him in” strategy. I picked up Charlie Bell today, hoping that T.J. Ford misses another game and Bell can put up a good line in a possible shootout. Other teams on the plate for Phoenix over the next few days include Indiana and Toronto. So if guys like Danny Granger or Matt Bonner are sitting out there, this might be the time to use them.

Head-to-Head's Up (3/27-4/2)

Oh My God, Becky... Did you see those second round games last night?!? Love the Tourney. Anyways, NBA Week 3/27-4/2 features several players “Returning with a Vengeance.” Here’s a look.

Five Games: Phoenix.
Four Games: Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, Golden State, Indiana, Memphis, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, Sacramento, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, LAC, LAL, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, San Antonio, Toronto.
Two Games: Boston.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
The Phoenix Suns, G/F/C – As if this squad wasn’t loaded with enough fantasy ballers already, now they have Amare STUDemire back in uniform and they play five games next week. Amare made his season debut last night and led the team with 20 points and 9 boards in only 19 minutes of action! All five starters are no-brainer plug-ins next week, plus Barbosa and Tim Thomas are worthy of consideration.

Jermaine O’Neal, F/C – O’Neal was supposed to be out until the playoffs with a torn groin muscle, then all of sudden he practices a couple times this week and was back in action on Wednesday night, posting 16 and 6 in 25 minutes. Many dropped the injured big man, but some shrewd owners with room on their bench stashed him just in case he recovered quickly (Jackpot!). If he can avoid any setbacks O’Neal will help you make that final push into your fantasy hoops playoffs. With four matchups on tap, you should get him in your lineups right away.

Josh Childress, G/F – J-Chill returned last Friday after missing five games with an ankle sprain. He was back to his old efficient self on Wednesday with a super game, delivering 17/12/5 with 3 steals and a three on 7 for 9 shooting. Four games from Childress should be more productive than say Paul Pierce’s two contests next week. You gotta love his across-the-board contributions in your H2H league.

Mike Dunleavy, SF – I generally share BV’s contempt for Mike Dunleavy and his overrated “skill set,” but that’s not to say I wouldn’t consider plugging in the former Blue Devil (eat it Duke!) for four games this coming week. Mickael Pietrus may have been the one who was hot in February, but after hitting a wall toward the end of the month (8 for 37 shooting), he was yanked from the starting rotation in favor of Dunleavy. Dunleavy has been shooting well since returning to the SLU a couple weeks ago and is averaging 21/8/4 and 2 treys over his last four games. Ride the wave and start Junior for four contests this week.

Sebastian Telfair, PG – Raise your hand if you’ve seen “Through the Fire: Sebastian Telfair’s Defining Year,” or better yet just post a comment. The documentary that chronicles Bassy’s jump from Lincoln High School to the NBA just came out on DVD a couple weeks ago and it’s next on my Netflix queue. Telfair was a preseason breakout candidate but has struggled with injuries, gun charges, and former Terrapins outplaying him on the court for most of ’05-’06. Well, he’s now back in the starting lineup ready to build some momentum going into next season. Sebastian has put up nice numbers (17/3/4 with 1.8 threes) in four games this week. As long as he’s in Portland’s starting lineup he belongs in yours.

Mike Miller, G/F – Time for some nickname tryouts: ‘MiMi’? ‘Eminem’? ‘Mike Miller Genuine Draft’? ‘Goofy White Chocolate’? Miller dropped 41 points against the Nuggets on March 17th and still finds himself coming off the Grizzlies’ bench. What’s a brotha gotta do to secure a starting gig in this league? (Keep in mind some dude named Royal Ivey has started 50 consecutive games now for the Hawks) M&M is hitting a career high 1.9 from long range this season and had another great game last night contributing 21/14/4 and 3 treys in a win over the Clips. Sure Coach Mike Fratello may love his energy off the bench, but all we want is assurance that Miller will get the playing time (30+ min) he deserves. Memphis tips off four times this week, so don’t hesitate, it’s Miller Time!

Darko?... Orlando only plays thrice next week, but if he remains in the starting lineup he may well be worth it.

Kwame?... ehhh No, not quite yet.

This ... And Some of That

It’s all about finding the little advantages at this point in the season. While many people will be focusing on the teams fighting for their playoff lives and home court advantage, you certainly don’t want to stop paying attention to the crappy teams. Why? Because while the good teams are getting into playoff mode – which invariably means tightening up the D – the crappy teams are just playing out the stretch and going out there to have fun. The guys on those teams aren’t interested in being lockdown defenders – they are interested in scoring points.

Check out last night’s games for an extremely small sample size example. There were three games played in which both teams are currently in the playoffs. There was an average of 172.7 total points scored in those three games. There were four games played with one team in the playoffs as of now, and one team out. There was an average of 214.5 total points scored in those games (with one OT game to take into account). Then there were two games of has-beens with an average of 202 total points in those games. On Tuesday there were just two games featuring a pair of non-playoff teams. All four of those teams broke the 100 point barrier. Something to keep in mind if you’re looking for some one-game wonders.

Now just a few random observations from last night:

--How about that Allen Iverson? We don’t like injury prone players too much, especially ones that will be drafted in the first two rounds, but one the unique things about Iverson’s injury proneness is that it’s either all or nothing. We hate it when guys slowly get worked back into the lineup. It’s the ultimate tease. That’s never the case with Iverson. He’ll miss his games, but when you get word that he’s coming back, you can plug him in the lineup with confidence. After missing four contests he returned to play 42 minutes and put up a line of 29/3/12 with two steals.

--Looking at Joe Johnson’s line last night I was like, “Ooh, a crappy game.” After all, he “just” put up 12/2/8 with three steals and two 3s. It just shows how out of this world Johnson has been lately. Johnson checks in at #9 on the 30 day player rater and his post-break numbers of 23.0/3.8/8.8 with 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.4 3s on 48% shooting are making those owners who drafted him early and held onto him – or traded for him a few months ago – very happy people. He hasn’t missed a game this season and now finds himself at #16 on the overall rater, which is higher than even the most optimistic of folks could have had him. Patience with your early picks.

--I’m never one to recommend bench players, but Andres Nocioni doesn’t deserve to be sitting out on too many FA lists right now. His playing time is very consistent – 30+ minutes in four of the past six – and he’s been Chicago’s most reliable offensive option lately. His playing style is so perfectly suited to an “energy guy off the bench” role that it seems unlikely he’ll ever be a true fantasy asset, though.

--You knew better than to trust Nazr Mohammed, right.

--With the caveat that he’s a rookie and still has a lot to learn, I’d say that Charlie Villanueva’s run as a starter for the Raptors has been a tad disappointing. In 22 games with a healthy 33.7 minutes he’s posting numbers of 13/0/7.6/1.4 with 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks and 1.0 3s on 46 and 77%. That’s solid all-around and good enough for a very respectable #79 on the 30 day rater. Perhaps we were expecting too much too soon. Maybe it’s for the best as it might keep his draft value down next year.

--That Knicks-Magic game sure was a fantasy nightmare and I suppose is the reason you can’t rely too much on those non-playoff team games. A grand total of 23 guys saw time on the court, and only one of them played more than 31 minutes. Ouch. That did let 12 guys get into double digits, but only Darko and his 4 blocks and Dwight Howard’s spot-on shooting really helped anyone last night.

Applications

Dear Kwame Brown,

Thank you for applying to be on my fantasy basketball team. I have taken into consideration many factors while making this decision, but I believe I have made the correct one:

No way. Uh-uh. I’m not buying it. I’ve followed your career too long and too close to get fooled again. Sure, you’ve gotten some nice run the past few games in place of Chris Mihm, topping the 35 mpg mark that usually makes players relevant fantasy-wise. And yeah, you’ve been not-too-terrible in those 5 games you started, going for 9.4 and 7 on 61% shooting. And perhaps best of all, you qualify at center, making pedestrian numbers like that worth looking at. But here’s a secret that I know about you. You might not like me letting it out, but I’ve got a responsibility here, so here goes:

You’re a terrible basketball player.

There, I said it. You have no concept of how to play defense. People blame your small hands for all the turnovers, but the real problem is that you don’t know what to do with the ball when you get it. You’ve managed to actually regress from the free-throw line, and now you’re averaging a Ben Wallace-esque 54% from the field. Unfortunately, that’s the only Wallace-esque thing about you. You’re completely allergic to blocks and steals. In fact, of the 43 guys who qualify at center on ESPN, you’re 34th in blocks per 48 minutes. That’s just not good. The steals aren’t there either.

Good luck on your further pursuits as a fantasy basketball contributor.

Sincerely,

BV

Dear Mike Dunleavy,

Thank you for applying to be on my fantasy basketball team. Much like NBA GM’s, I can’t help but be intrigued by a dude who’s 6-9, can pass and rebound, and will step out to shoot the three pointer when prodded. Unlike NBA GM’s, and Golden State GM’s in particular, I will not be suckered into giving you a stupid amount of money and a long-term deal. And luckily, I don’t have to. In most leagues, you been sitting on waiver wires for most of the year (and rightly so), and can be had for pennies.

Because of your small price, and you recent hot streak, I am willing to accept your application and place you on my team on a provisional basis. You will be placed on the bench, where you will stay until you have proven your consistency. I do not have extra games to use on risks like you. However, if you maintain your hot streak for another 2 games or so, particularly focusing on your threes, I may give you some run in my Utility spot.

I’ll be blunt, Mr. Dunleavy. I don’t like you. I haven't liked you since your days as a Blue Devil. I think you are incredibly overrated, and if your name wasn’t Dunleavy, and you didn’t go to Duke, you would have been a late first round pick rather than the No. 3 overall back in 2002. I hope you enjoy your time sitting on my bench – at the end of it.

Sincerely,

BV

3-2-1 Contract

The contract push can come in all shapes and sizes. Last year, Jerome James went bonkers for 2 or 3 games in the playoffs, and in doing so earned himself probably 15-20 million dollars. In ’03-04, Mark Blount qualified as the “Best Pickup I Ever Made Mid-Season,” averaging 13.1/9.6 with 1.3 blocks and 55% from the field over the second half of the year, earning himself a massive contract that he (shockingly) never lived up to.

This summer will see a particularly poor crop of free agents, and most teams have their eyes on the summer of '07, when all the big names hit the market. Still, there will be teams with money to spend now, and that means some less than stellar players will be getting some nice deals.

With this in mind, let’s look at a couple of fringe players who might work hard for the money, so hard for the money.

Joel Przybilla, POR
Przybilla is my favorite pick for a guy who can come out of nowhere to put up big numbers, and for a couple of reasons. One, we saw him do it last year, where over the last 33 games he turned into a blocks machine, turning away 3.55 shots per game while chipping in 9.5 points and 10.2 boards on 58% shooting. Two, from Blount and James all the way back to Jim McIlvaine, teams are always willing to overpay big guys, so he’s got plenty to gain. Finally, with Old Man Ratliff struggling with a sore ankle, the flu, and lord knows what else, the time is there for Przybilla if he earns it. It’s not like the Blazers are going anywhere, so they’ve got nothing to lose by playing him.

Personally, I like Przybilla, and I think he’s a solid starting job away from being a nice fantasy center. Before the year started, I had him in the same tier as Samuel Dalembert, and sometimes risks work out, sometimes they don’t. But just has Dalembert’s season took a turn for the worse seemingly out of nowhere, perhaps Przybilla can turn his around in the right direction.

Bonzi Wells, SAC
Admittedly, Wells probably won’t be sitting on your league’s waiver wire, but as he continues to split time with Kevin Martin, he might start showing up in the drop column. Don’t let him stay there long. Hanging onto the last playoff spot in the West by a thread, I’d look for Rick Adelman to start giving more time to the veteran down the stretch. When healthy, Wells has been a very solid utility guy for fantasy teams, providing great rebounding (the 8 per game is easily a career high), and nice steals at 1.9 per game. Wells will turn 30 in the offseason, and this is likely his last shot at a big deal. Helping the Kings into the playoffs would earn him a nice payday in the offseason.

Bobby Jackson, MEM
Jackson has been battling with Chucky Atkins for playing time, and dealing with injuries at the same time. He did just turn 33 years old, so it’s not like he’s going to get a huge deal anywhere, but he’s such a huge asset in threes, that it doesn’t take too much else to make him worth a spot on your fantasy team. He could just as easily average 11 points as he could 16 points over the rest of the year, so if it looks like he’s about to hit on a hot streak, don’t hesitate to grab him.

Rasual Butler, NOK
Butler is a pretty deep sleeper, but this year’s FA crop is pretty thin, so he could play his way into a nice deal as a rotation guy. He’s seen his minutes steadily increase all year (Monthly averages: 15.3, 19.9, 21.0, 24.3, 25.1), and if he finds his shooting stroke from long range (he’s shot .125 in March after hitting 40% in February), he could see himself cracking the 30 mpg barrier. He won’t excel in any particular category, but he’ll provide a little bit in threes, blocks, and steals, and down the stretch, and that could be a nice complement to the right fantasy teams.

When Basketball Takes a Back Seat

We love our NBA basketball here at FBB. We live for it, you might say. But sometimes, our love of basketball has to take a backseat to other things in life. Such as following the Silver Jews around on their first ever tour. Now you might not know who the Silver Jews are and you probably don’t care, but the point remains that sometimes we can’t follow fantasy basketball happenings as much as we want to, but it doesn’t mean we have to let our teams suffer. So here’s my way of dealing with being mostly out of the loop for a few days, as I was this weekend.

The first thing you need to do before you leave your world of ready access to a computer is set your lineup. This sounds sort of obvious, but you’d be surprised how easy it is to forget. And at the same time, different leagues have different ways of setting lineups. Just because you put someone in there on Friday doesn’t mean he’ll still be in there on Saturday. This is obviously of even more importance as we get later into the season and every game matters. If you have to set your lineup for a long(ish) stretch of time, I always like to play it somewhat safe. Your studs will be in there all the time, that goes without saying. As for fringe players, it’s a tough call. T.J. Ford is never a sure thing, but I needed assists lately, so I had him in the lineup. But still, better safe than sorry is the way to go here. If games are at a premium, then it’s best to use them when you know you’ll have plenty of information at your disposal.

There’s always the possibility of leaving your password info with a trusted confidant and having him change your lineup should anything come up. This is not something I’m into. Sure, I’d totally trust BV not to fuck up my lineup or write hateful e-mails to everyone in my address book, but there’s just something that rubs me the wrong way about having someone else in my team.

So when you’re gone, you’re gone, there’s not so much you can do. If you’ve got Internet on your phone – and I would think most people do at this point – that’s a good way to keep track of at least your players. I made sure to check on my guys, but not too fanatically. One time per evening, after all the games were over. If you’re going to without ready access, I say to just let it go as much as possible. It’s always good to get a break to refresh, so don’t be constantly waiting for your phone to load while you’re on that break.

Catching up on info when you get back is the big thing. If you’re away for just a few days, it’s pretty easy to get up to speed on what you missed. The first thing to do is check all the box scores, but also make sure to read the game recaps. The numbers are important, but you need to know how those numbers came about. Did someone have a great fourth quarter that might lead to more playing time? Did someone have a big game because another player got ejected? This is key. Check whichever news blurb site you prefer and do a quick scan through the days you missed. You don’t need to painstakingly read each one – if it simply says that someone had a big game you’ve probably discerned that from the box score – but check for minor injury updates. It’s not a bad idea to read the hometown papers about your own players.

Check your league’s transaction list. This is actually one of the top priorities. You need to know what players were picked up and what new players are available. There’s no worse feeling than seeing someone get plucked off the free agent list and saying, “Wait, he was available? I would have picked him up had I known!” Don’t just look at the complete list, sort it by add, sort it by drop, to get a better idea. Check the top of your free agent list when you get back to see what the best choices are up there. You always want to know what your best options are in case you have to make a quick move.

Anyone else have any tactics they use to stay competitive while on vacation?

Head-to-Head's Up (3/20-3/26)

Sorry about the delay today, but the IT guy at work is cracking down on internet use, plus you know that tournament thing. Are your brackets already busted? Really? You must be pretty bad. Anyways here are some tips for NBA March Gladness: looking ahead to week 3/20-3/26.

Five Games: LAC
Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, Seattle, Toronto.
Three Games: Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Miami, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Utah, Washington.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Vladimir Radmanovic, PF – The Clippers are the only team in the league to hit the hardwood five times next week and RadMan can do some damage from long range with plenty of playing time off the bench. Vlad has grabbed a respectable 7 boards and drained over 3 rainmakers a game since Presidents’ Day. Los Angeles is 7-3 over that span and it appears Vlad Rad has the green light to shoot as much as he likes from downtown. You know he runs hot and cold, so now is as good a time as any to plug in the Bosnian sharpshooter. Take advantage.

Jumaine Jones, SF – Much like the Wizards’ Antawn Jamison, Jumaine Jones appears to have suddenly discovered his long range stroke this season… especially over the last few weeks. Jones was a great pickup while starter Gerald Wallace missed significant time, and he was playing so well that Coach Bernie Bickerstaff decided to keep JJ in the starting lineup even after Wallace returned. Now, wispy Wallace is out again and Jones is scorching hot (23/7/1, 49%FG, 88%FT with 4.2 treys and 1.4 thefts over last 5 games). At this pace, March ‘06 will go down as the best month of Jumaine’s not-so-illustrious NBA career.

Chucky Atkins, PG – Chucky may be Memphis’s starting point guard but the offense does not exactly run through him. Sure he may bring the ball up the court but he doesn’t orchestrate plays a la Steve Nash, thus keeping his assist numbers pretty low (compare Pau Gasol’s 43 dishes to Atkins’ 17 in March). Spark plug guard Bobby Jackson was really beginning to cut into Chucky’s minutes recently until he was forced out of action with a strained rib muscle. Now Atkins is assured the bulk of the minutes at point guard. However, even with the increased workload there’s still a ceiling on his fantasy production, so don’t expect any miracles. He’s averaging 14.1ppg and 2.3 treys this month, so he makes a decent play if you’re looking for three-pointers this week.

Luther Head, G – The rookie out of Illinois probably shouldn’t be starting for an NBA team with playoff aspirations, but he is. Yao Ming has played like an MVP since returning from his foot injury, but now brokeback T-Mac is probably out for the season. Somebody has to make up some of McGrady’s 25 ppg even if Yao is scoring 35 a night. Who are the other candidates to pick up the slack? Juwan Howard and Keith Bogans? Remember, Luther had that nice little run in November filling in for Alston, averaging 15/6/4 and 3.4 threes over a 5-game stretch. If you're feeling lucky go get some Head and put him in your lineup.

Jake Tsakalidis, C – The 7’2 giant from Georgia (no, not the dirty South) hasn’t amounted to much of anything six years in the NBA. Tsakalidis was actually averaging career lows before being inserted into Memphis’ starting lineup three weeks ago. His three double-doubles over his last four games won’t be a regular thing, but I don’t think you can call it a fluke either. If the big man can continue getting 25-30 minutes a night he can obviously be a decent fantasy contributor. With four matchups next week, why not give him try?

First Person Scouting Report

So last night BV and I took in some NBA action at the MCI, er, Verizon Center. Scored some relatively good and cheap tickets off of Craigslist (can you believe people were trying to get rid of Wizards/Bobcats tickets on a Wednesday night?!) and enjoyed a game that played out exactly as we thought it would. Wizards jump out to big lead, get disinterested, let the Bobcats hang in there even though you never actually think they have a chance of winning, and hold on in the end. It was a fine game, although perhaps the highlights were two things that had nothing to do with the game. First, a little kid in the section over from us taking his hat and throwing if over the ledge down into the section below us. Hilarious. Second, a guy from the crowd hitting a 3-pointer, getting everyone in the audience a free pizza today. Good times.

Anyway, the point is, going to games is fun and you should go to as many games as possible. I know that this is easier said than done. Maybe you don’t have the money, the time, or live in a city with an NBA team. That’d be a bummer. But it’s a great way to spend an evening and it really does help you fantasy-wise, too. Yes, fantasy is all about the numbers, but its invaluable to actually see the players and how they go about getting their numbers. This can be achieved by watching games on TV, sure, but it’s not the same as live, where you can see everything unfold and focus on whatever you want to focus on. It’s good to know a little something about every player in the league. It helps on draft day, when you might have less than a minute to make a decision, it might help if you need to make a decision about a free agent. So with that in mind, here’s some first person scouting from last night’s game.

Gilbert Arenas – So far and away the best player on the floor, but in this game, he better be. Has become an incredibly accurate outside shooter over the past couple years; if he’s left completely open from behind the arc, feel confident in shouting “Buckets!” while the ball’s still in the air. Also gets the basket whenever he wants. Will be a first round fantasy pick for many, many years to come.

Antawn Jamison – One of the most interesting fantasy developments this year has been Jamison’s newfound prowess from long range. He was just 1-of-4 last night, but after averaging 1.4 per game in November, then 0.6 in December, he’s averaged 1.9, 2.7 and 2.5 per month over the last three months, and he’s launching them as much as anyone in the league these days. Jamison is also a classic garbage rebounder. Watching him, he’s not at all great on the boards, but he gets in good position and if there’s a missed shot and no one going for an offensive rebound and three Wizards around the rim, Jamison is getting that board.

Caron Butler – I’ve become a big Butler fan this year. He’s an intense player who gives it his all, kind of ironic given who was dealt for. His FG% isn’t anything great, but he’s a surprisingly accurate shooter from around 18-20 feet. A very solid better-than-role player in real life and for your fantasy squad.

Antonio Daniels – Right after last season I told BV that I really wanted to Wizards to sign Antonio Daniels. So imagine how happy I was when that actually happened. Then imagine how disappointed I was with his performance the first two seasons. But he’s really turned it around since then. He was being treated as a shooter, not a scorer, but that’s been fixed. He’s best going hard to the basket and getting to the line and making smart passes. He’s a calming presence on the floor, much more valuable to the Wizards than to anyone’s fantasy team.

Brendan Haywood – This was a make or break year for Haywood and while he didn’t exactly break, he certainly didn’t make. He showed improvement each year in his career, but looks like he may have maxed out. On defense he’s a slapper and allows his man to back him down too easily. On offense he has weak, bad hands and doesn’t attack the basket enough. Ideally he’s a backup.

Jared Jeffries – Last night might have been one of Jared’s best games ever. And he still makes you uncomfortable. BV and I agree that Jared is good at one thing – bringing the ball over halfcourt. He’s also pretty good at tipping balls (ewww), and he’s sometimes a smart player, but not a very talented one.

Brevin Knight – Knight was pretty awful last, not hitting any of his shots and not sneaking into passing lanes like he normally does. But he still ended with 8 assists and it was easy to see why – he always has the ball. But he’s also in the best possible situation right now and he might never get another chance to repeat it.

Raymond Felton – Hard to get a good read on Felton last night, but I’ll stick with what I said to BV in that he could be looking like the new Baron Davis. I mean, look at that line last night – 3-for-10 from the field, 1-for-5 from long range and 3-for-5 from the line with 6 assists in 27 minutes. Felton had the play of the game, an explosive drive/dunk. It’s hard to tell exactly how good he’ll be until he can take over the reigns as PG.

Jumaine Jones – He loves to shoot, especially the three ball, and who can blame him when he was feeling it like he was last night. He connected on 6-of-8 on his way to a monster game of 25/8/3 with 3 steals, 6 3s on 9-of-14 shooting. Unbelievable. I’ve always been a fan since he’s the classic chucker.

Bernard Robinson – Before the game I said to BV that the Bobcats were a great example of a team that could prove my theory that most players are interchangeable and can put up numbers if given the chance. BV said, “Well, not everyone, not, like, Bernard Robinson.” I said, “You’re crazy, I was thinking specifically of Bernard Robinson.” And he didn’t disappoint, getting 26 minutes and going for 21/4/1 with 3 steals and a 3 on 8-of-11 and 4-of-4. That’s an efficient ballgame right there. He’s a very active player – averaging 1.2 steals in less than 19 mpg this season – and I could see him having a Bobby Simmons-type season if ever given the chance.

Primoz Brezec – Was absolutely invisible last night, which is not a good sign considering that the Wizards don’t have anything resembling an intimidating frontline. Managed to play only 10 minutes. He’s got a nice stroke, but that’s really about it.

Melvin Ely – Another guy who was invisible last night, which was especially disappointing given that he got the start with Gerald Wallace out. Has received 19 starts this year and has managed just 11.0/6.0/1.7 with 1.0 block. Not bad, but certainly nothing spectacular.

Kareem Rush – Here’s one where the stat sheet doesn’t lie. I only noticed him when he was shooting. Well, he played 25 minutes, took 15 shots, had one rebound, two assists, and that’s it. No free throws, no steals, no blocks, no fouls. As one-dimensional as theu come.

Matt Carroll – His shot wasn’t falling last night, and that makes him completely worthless. I was trying to figure out if J.J. Redick is really going to be that much more effective than Carroll and I suppose he will be, but like Carroll he’s going to be dominated on the defensive end and if his shots not falling it’s hard to see him offering anything else of value.

Tourney Time

I’m not going to pretend that you guys are all going to be watching the NBA nonstop for the next few weeks. I’m well aware that that most, if not all of you will be paying far more attention to the NCAA tournament, and hey, I can’t blame you. Still, you can pick up some nice fantasy knowledge for next year by closely watching some of these kids. Remember, this year’s tourney stars are next year’s 20-minutes per game, just barely not-having-value rookies.

If there’s one thing I pride myself in, it’s picking that late-lottery rookie that will manage to have value in the coming season, and picking them late in the draft. Two years ago I grabbed Dwyane Wade in the last round, last year it was Andre Iguodala, and this year I snagged Charlie Villanueva late (and then held on to him until January, when I dropped him, and watching him then go on a massive tear. Not that I’m bitter.). So what’s the trick? I dunno. I just manage to find guys that I like. With Wade, it was his mid-range jumper that impressed me when I watched him in the tourney. Iguodala had a nice all-around game, and I thought his defense would keep him on the court. I liked Villanueva, but it wasn’t until he started hitting three’s in training camp that I really warmed to him.

The guys who are drafted in the Top 5 are all going to get drafted in fantasy leagues, and will not catch anyone by surprise when they get PT. But correctly guessing which late-lottery/mid-first-round guys are going to have value can be a huge help to your squad.

Anyhow, here are some guys who, admittedly, I’ve never seen before – but who I’m going to be looking at closely in the NCAA tournament:

Brandon Roy, Sr., Washington – Roy has a bunch of positives going for him. Number one, he puts up great percentages for a non-forward. He’s shot over 50% from the field in all four seasons at Washington. This year, he’s even pushed his FT% over 80%, which is very encouraging. The other thing that I really liked, while reading about Roy, is that he’s handled the point position (either as a true PG or a “point-forward”), which means he can be trusted with the ball. Less mistakes as a rookie means more playing time in the NBA.

Josh Boone, Jr., UConn – I like Boone more than teammate Hilton Armstrong simply because I’m very wary of anyone who comes out of nowhere to be a draftable player. Boone has been highly touted for a couple of years now, and though he’s yet to set the world on fire in college, his shot-blocking ability should be drawing your attention. And remember, even though his stats aren’t magnificent, he’s had to share the ball this year with Armstrong, Rudy Gay, Marcus Williams, Denham Brown and Rashad Anderson. His FT% is a major concern, however.

Kevin Pittsnogle, Sr., West Virginia – Hey, any time a big man can shoot 85% from the stripe, I’m interested. He can shoot, and shoot well, and so he’ll get interest from NBA teams – and from me. But I’m not all that impressed with what I’ve read, and if he’s going to impress me in the tournament it’s going to be by playing on the inside.

Shelden Williams, Sr., Duke – You can talk all you want about JJ Redick, but my guess is the Duke player with the most impact next year will be Williams. His blocks and boards are enough to make him worth a look as a fantasy option. Two teams – Seattle and Minnesota – could draft him and plug him right in to their starting lineups.

The one thing you’ll notice about all of these guys is they’re all juniors or seniors. My guess is, if you’re an underclassman, unless you get drafted in the top 5, you’re not going to be playing much your first year until you prove yourself. NBA teams might be able to be patient, but when you’re year-to-year like most fantasy teams, you don’t have the luxury. Good luck with your brackets!

New! Updated! Top 20!

After having my top 20 column yanked from under me in a hostile takeover by DM last month, I’m taking back the reins this time around.

1. Shawn Marion – He finally won me over with his 90% from the stripe over the last month. The real question is, how will Amare’s return (either this year or next) affect his value? My guess: not much.

2. LeBron James – His FG%, 3’s, and steals have all been in steady decline since December and January, and I’m getting a little worried he might hit the wall. On a side note, how horrendously disappointing has Donyell Marshall been as a Cavalier?

3. Dirk Nowitzki – DM had his at number 6 last time, which is, frankly, ridiculous. My favorite Dirk stat is his FT%, which is right around 90% for the year. Other guys might rank higher on the player rater, but the fact that Dirk does it from the PF spot makes him the most valuable FT guy in the league.

4. Kevin Garnett – Poor KG. He’s really angry, but it hasn’t affected his play yet. His March numbers have been spectacular, though we’ll see if that keeps up.

5. Kobe Bryant – Kobe could be number two on this list, but I worry that his FG% could plummet. 42% over the past month isn’t encouraging. But still, his owners have to be thrilled with the Lakers’ position in the standings. They’re in the playoffs, but it’s not a sure thing, and if they continue to play well they could avoid facing SA or Dallas in round 1.

6. Gilbert Arenas – Here’s something you might not know about us here at FBB: we love Gilbert Arenas. The East Coast Assassin has been on a tear after the All-Star break – 32.8 ppg, 49.8% from the field, 3.0 3’s and 2.7 steals. So, we’ll put him here at six and hope that he keeps it up.

7. Paul Pierce – He’s on fire. I might not love him as much as the Sports Guy, but I’ll admit to being impressed. In next year’s draft, how big will the gap be between Pierce, T-Mac, Kobe and Ray Allen? The general thought this year was that Kobe and T-Mac were on a higher plane, but maybe not anymore.

8. Elton Brand – I might be the only one pushing Brand for MVP, but I’m still convinced. As for fantasy, he’s been better at being Tim Duncan than Tim Duncan has this year, without the FT% woes. He’s a nice mid-first round pick next year.

9. Ray Allen – He’s just solid. At this point, what I’d like to see more than anything from Ray over the rest of the year is to not miss time with injury. I still worry about Ray’s durability, and seeing him top 75 games for a second consecutive year would be nice.

10. Dwyane Wade – I’ve got this idea. If you’re in a head-to-head league next year, I think you could draft Wade, and proceed to punt threes and win your league in a landslide with some smart drafting. With him and Brevin Knight at the point? I dunno, just a thought.

11. Rasheed Wallace – Along with Chauncey Billups, he’s been the best mid-round pick this year. Flip’s presence has really allowed him to flourish, and he’s a potential second round pick next year.

12. Allen Iverson – His ankle is a shame, because I thought he’d use the Team USA debacle as some serious inspiration, and it seemed like he was. Still, I’m hoping that AI’s short absence will allow guys like Stephen Hunter and Andre Iguodala to have a bigger role in the Sixers’ offense.

13. Chauncey Billups – Here’s something that’s got me worried, as a Billups owner – Tony Delk. In the 2 games since Delk decided to be a scorer on his new squad, Billups has taken only 8 shots in each game. Let’s hope this doesn’t become a trend. Still, Chauncey’s 8.8 apg has been one of the nicest surprises in fantasy this year.

14. Joe Johnson – He’s been fifth in the league in assists over the past month with 9.3 per game. What’s more, the Hawks have really been getting better over the past month or two. He might end up being the long term answer at the point for Atlanta.

15. Yao Ming – Hey, do you guys remember when I traded Samuel Dalembert and Jason Terry to DM for Yao Ming and Brevin Knight? Yeah, that was sweet. Yao has been on an absolute tear lately, and so he gets a nice spot in the Top 20.

16. Jason Kidd – He’s been flat-out spectacular since the All-Star break. It’s been like Kidd circa 1999. I wouldn’t count on him keeping it up, but it’s been nice to see.

17. Andrei Kirilenko – I’ll admit it – I’m a huge AK fan, but I am very worried about this year’s output. The FT% is way down, the threes have been next to nil over the last month … I’m just not happy about it.

18. Chris Paul – Here’s a question – what do you expect Paul to do next year? Where do you draft him? How much improvement will there be from year one to year two?

19. Jason Richardson – If he could learn to shoot free-throws … he’d be a second round pick next year. It’s one of the most confounding stats in basketball. Let’s hope he spends a LOT of time working from the stripe this summer.

20. Chris Webber – Admittedly, his stats aren’t as good as some other candidates for this spot, but you’ve got to give props to Webber for staying healthy for so long and turning in a nice season when no one thought he would. So, he gets the 20 spot this time around.

Just a Little Patience

At this point in the fantasy basketball season there’s not really much else to do but sit back and hope for the best. Your trade deadline has most likely passed, meaning that you can’t improve your team except with whatever is sitting on the free agent list. You should certainly be scouring the available players for whatever can help you, but you knew that already. So I like to use the last month of the season to focus on lessons you can learn from the season and apply to future seasons. So today’s lesson is: Have Patience, or Take Advantage of Those Who Don’t. There’s no great secret in predicting how a player will perform. You basically look at what he’s done in the past, look at his age, look at his situation and that’s it. Well, that’s not it, but that’s most of it. Players will perform how they are expected to perform the majority of the time. And they will usually progress or regress to their expected numbers as time passes. So what happens when a player starts out slow? That will most likely be countered with a stronger performance later in the season. If you have one of those players, you just have to sit tight – selling low usually doesn’t work out for the best. But there are always people who do that, and that’s where you, the clever fantasy player, can swoop in. Here are five players whose owners needed to show some patience with this year. Keep them in mind next year when you are about to hit the trade or drop button for a player you know you really shouldn’t.

Josh Smith
In the preseason rankings I put Smith at #57, and said that you’d have to deal with some ups and downs. But it was mostly downs at the beginning of the season, as at the All-Star break Smith was averaging just 8.8/5.9/1.3 on 42% shooting in only 27.5 mpg. Yes, he was getting 2.3 blocks per contest, but he was still a liability to most teams. But he’s caught fire since then, checking in at #18 on the 30 day player rater, with post-break averages of 12.6/8.9/4.1, 1.0 steals and a monster 3.8 blocks while getting nearly 40 minutes per game. This has vaulted him all the way up to #65 on the overall player rater and leaves him with a fine chance of breaking the top 60, where I had him pegged before the year. His ability to stay healthy is a big reason for this, but he’s a young player, so that’s something you should be able to count on. He’s following almost the same pattern as he did last year, and while that can be frustrating early on, it’s also something you may be able to use to your advantage.

Rafer Alston
There was a lot of waiting necessary here, as Alston had to adjust to a new team and overcome an early season injury. His first couple months really couldn’t have been much worse. Through December he played in just 9 games and was averaging a pathetic 7.3/3.9/4.0 on 33% shooting with barely 1 3pg. Those were not anything close to the numbers people were expecting from Alston when they took him as early as the 5th round. He was hitting the waiver wires in mainly leagues, and astute owners who picked him up have been rewarded with a solid #2 PG for the last few months. A monster January saw him average 14.0/6.9/4.4 with 2.0 steals and 2.2 3s, which are true stud numbers. His FG% remains stuck in the high 30s, but this is no surprise, as it’s right at his career average. His scoring has been down the past few months, but he’s still been a huge contributor in 3s, steals and assists, which is what you’re looking for from a #2 PG.

Jason Kidd
It might be hard to remember now, but early in the season there were lots of disappointed Jason Kidd owners. For a guy who was possibly your first pick and definitely at least your second, and someone who was supposed to lead you to dominance in assists, averaging just 6.7 assists per game through November. He was also shooting just 40% and his 3s were down from last year’s numbers as well. Kidd has long been a notorious FG% killer, but it’s been easy to accept since he’s helped dominate in other categories. That wasn’t happening early, and combined with injury worries, some owners may have gotten worried and traded him off. Obviously, that wasn’t the best of ideas. He’s been vintage Kidd lately, seemingly flirting with a triple-double every night and has been single-handedly taking his owners up the standings, just like a first rounder on a hot streak should.

Peja Stojakovic
OK, so I was way off base with my preseason prediction that he would put up numbers quite similar to Ray Allen this year and would offer a better overall value. That’s as much due to Allen having a career year at age 30, in his 10th season, right after signing a big contract extension as it does with another disappointing season from Stojakovic. But Peja has been close to the Peja of old since finding a new home in Indiana. His 03-04 season in which he averaged 24.3 ppg with 3 3pg on 48% shooting is starting to look like the clear outlier in his career, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a true fantasy asset, if not fantasy superstar. It’s especially nice to see Peja realize that’s he’s actually 6’10” and hitting the boards. His 20.4/6.6/1.5 with 2.4 3s on 46/92 shooting is more than solid.

Caron Butler
You all know that we are huge Wizards fans here at FBB, so you can imagine our frustration early in the season when we had to endure Caron Butler – who was clearly the Wizards third best player (and possibly even second best player) – coming off the bench for the first month and a half of the season. He still put up decent numbers during this time but wasn’t very consistent on a game-to-game basis, making him a shaky start for most fantasy owners and causing him to hit the waiver wire in more than a few leagues. But sometimes you just have to hold out hope that talent wins out and that was the case here. Since entering the starting lineup Butler is putting up the best numbers of his career, a solid 17.6/6.5/2.7 with 1.6 steals and even chipping in with 0.7 3s.

Head-to-Head's Up (3/13-3/19)

Beware the Ides of March approacheth. Do not let NCAA Selection Sunday distract you from your fantasy hoops obligations for week 3/13-3/19.

Four Games: Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Indiana, LAL, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Utah, Washington.
Three Games: Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, LAC, Memphis, Phoenix, Sacramento, San Antonio, Toronto.
Two Games: Golden State, New Orleans, Seattle.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Luol Deng, F – Before a stinker at Detroit on Wednesday, the Man from Sudan was on a tear: 19/11/2 with a steal and a block in a robust 41.6 minutes over five games. If the 6’9 swingman could develop his three-point shot his value would skyrocket. Get him in your lineups Deng it!

Jason Williams, PG – White Chocolate is red hot and he’s been a big contributor during Miami’s current 10-game win streak. He’s dealt with some nagging injuries this season but he appears healthy and geared up for the playoffs. Averages of 18/2/7 and 3.3 treys per game in March are reason to believe he’ll be a great start with a full schedule next week.

Ryan Gomes, F – The second round draft pick out of Providence has been unbelievable since being thrust into Boston’s starting lineup due to injuries in their frontcourt. Averaging 16/9/2 with 62%FG, 76%FT, and 1 steal over his last 11 games, he’s also second on the team (after Pierce) with 39 minutes a night over that span. Gomes’ success is remarkable considering the inconsequential 8 mpg he averaged over the season’s first three months. So why has top prospect Al Jefferson struggled so much this season while Gomes now makes it look easy as pie? Well first, Gomes played all four years in college and developed his game and maturity level before going pro. He’s a dedicated player, and the rookie also has the benefit of playing big minutes without the lofty expectations imposed on the 21-year-old Jefferson. Ryan has actually stepped it up since Big Al returned from injury by turning in back-to-back career highs of 27 and 29 points. I can’t imagine anyone taking his starting spot the way he’s playing right now. The C’s are 8-4 since Gomes was inserted into the SLU, so go ahead and jump on the bandwagon baby!

Carlos Boozer, PF – The former Blue Devil has probably been the biggest fantasy disappointment this year as he sat out most of the season with a nagging hamstring injury. The overpaid Dukie finally returned to the hardwood last month and is averaging 11/9/2 over his last 9 games coming off the bench. As he regains strength and builds his confidence, Boozer should work his way back into Utah’s starting lineup soon, at which point he could easily put up 18/10/2. The Jazz have four games next week and the Alaskan big man makes a decent start.

Kyle Korver, F – Another disappointment this season, Korver’s value is exclusively tied to his ability to dial long distance. I’m not sure if the MCI/Verizon or AT&T/SBC mergers had anything to do with his struggles, but who knows. Kyle led the league with 226 treys last season, but has taken a step back and been used off the Sixers’ bench for the last couple months. He was actually in the starting lineup last night, filling in for the injured Kevin Ollie, but shot a miserable 1 for 12 (yes, that's a dozen attempts) from behind the arc. Before last night’s dud, Korver was on a little hot streak averaging 16 points and nearly 3 rainmakers over seven games. Hopefully KK can bounce back and be a difference maker with some nice matchups next week (TOR, @SEA, @LAC, @GS).

Sit ‘em down:
Kevin Martin – Bonzi’s return is finally starting to cut into his production. See if you have a better option.
Vladimir Radmanovic – RadMan has value but he’s too inconsistent to play for only two contests this week.
Baron Davis – Still coming off the bench and shooting like Helen Keller.
Steve Nash – He missed last night’s game against the Spurs and is listed as “day-to-day.” He could play this weekend but is more likely to miss a handful of games. I know it hurts benching the reigning MVP but you should only use him if you have no other choice.

FBB Potpourri

A couple of random thoughts on my mind as the fantasy deadline approaches …

- If you’re looking for a guy to make a big impact on your team who could possibly be had on the cheap, here’s a name that doesn’t get mentioned often with “cheap”: Shaquille O’Neal. Time is running out for the Diesel to win a title sans Kobe, and as Shaq likes to remind us, he gives different amounts of effort as the season progresses. After lulling through January, he picked up his scoring, blocks, and FG% last month. With Dwyane Wade hurting, Shaq could be in line for some big numbers over the next few weeks. Watching him last night, he looked as in shape as he’s been in awhile. Shaq has been “overvalued” in fantasy leagues for years, and all the talk may make him undervalued now. If you can afford the hit in FT%, he could be a really solid pickup.

- We’ve had questions in the past few weeks about managing total games played. My first few tries at fantasy basketball, I always liked to have some games stored for a late-season push. The problem is, as the end of the season nears, it’s tougher to judge who’s going to get playing time. As NBA teams fall out of contention, and others solidify their playoff spots, more coaches shake up their lineups, and as any Knicks owners know, that can be incredibly frustrating. I always ended up using my saved games on guys who ended up with 2-point, 3-board nights, and the surge just never materialized. You’re much better off keeping your games right on pace for the maximum as the year progresses.

- If you’re looking for some keepers, I’d highly recommend looking at the Atlanta Hawks. With Al Harrington likely out the door this summer, that will clear up a ton of PT for Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams. True, the Hawks will have some significant cap space to work with, but that will likely be spent on either a point guard to move Joe Johnson to the 2, or a center (if there are any to be had). Smith, Childress and Williams are all terrific keepers for next year. They must have been drafted pretty low this year, but all could be mid-round picks next fall, depending on how the summer shakes out.

All three guys are nice players, but my favorite right now is Williams, who has been pretty solid since the All-Star break. He seems to be playing more on the inside lately, getting to the line more often, grabbing more offensive rebounds, and shooting at a higher percentage. He’s shown nice development in his rookie year, and I think he’ll have enough value to be a third forward next year.

- Here’s something interesting. And by interesting, I mean frustrating. Boris Diaw is starting at center for the Phoenix Suns. This isn’t a secret. Yahoo! Sports is aware of it. I know this, of course, because their depth chart for the Suns shows Diaw as the starting center. It’s been happening for awhile now. 6 games, in fact. And yet, he doesn’t qualify at center yet in Yahoo leagues! Why? Who knows? I’m not a Diaw owner, but still, it’s pretty annoying. Anyone know when he’ll start qualifying at center?

- Finally, let me say a few words about Darko. Our resident Darko Enthusiast, PR, has been very high on the new Floridian. Right now, though, he’s helping in one category, and one category only: blocks. His stats right now are very similar to Adonal Foyle, who can be found on just about every waiver wire in the country. I’m just not convinced he’s going to do that much more – this year – than Foyle, at least if he continues to see just 20 mpg. Should he get closer to 30, he’ll be worth a closer look, but for now, I’d look for help in another place.

A Closer Look: Chris Wilcox

Sorry for the lateness of today’s post, but, y’know, work. Stupid work. Anyway, one claim that I’ve made a bunch on here is that there are about 50-75 players in the league – roughly two or three per team – that are truly special players. The guys with real talent who rise above the rest. After that, everyone’s pretty much the same, and given enough playing time, the numbers will bear that out. The key for these guys is simply getting that playing time to show what they can do. We’ll be focusing on a former Terp today, so I’ll use two other former Terps as examples real quick – Juan Dixon and Steve Blake. Both guys were kind of buried in Washington, but given a chance in Portland they’ve proven they are perfectly competent players capable of putting up respectable numbers for fantasy purposes when given a certain amount of playing time. It’s all about the playing time.

In some ways, Chris Wilcox is a good data point in favor of staying in school an extra year. Maybe. He came out after his sophomore year and was able to cash in on that lottery pick rookie contract, so it’s hard to tell a guy he made a bad decision after getting a guaranteed $11 million or so. But at the same time, he was still somewhat of a project and was treated as such and has never really had the chance to prove himself on an extended basis. But no matter, he’s an “athletic” big man, so you know that once he hits free agency he’ll get some team to give him at least something close to the complete mid-level exception. But that doesn’t concern us right now. Well, it does a little since he’s going to be a restricted free agent in a few months and, as luck would have it, he looks to be the starting power forward on one of the league’s highest scoring teams for a few weeks. This could be a recipe for success.

Wilcox has had his chances as a starter before and he’s been reasonably successful, but never successful enough to turn it into anything lasting. I’ve lumped him into the same group as Stromile Swift and Melvin Ely, as big men who “just need a chance” but for whatever reason never get that chance. Because of an injury to Chris Kaman, Wilcox began last year as a starter, starting the first 19 games in the middle for the Clippers. He started off extremely strong, going for 16.2/7.7/1.7 on 55% shooting, but faltered after that, dropping off to 7.3/4.2/0.4 in his next nine starts. A couple years back, when Elton Brand got hurt after his monster 21/15 with 8 blocks opener in Japan (you think I had him on my team that year?), Wilcox was pressed into starting action and again responded quite well out of the gate. He put up 14.5/7.0/1.3 on 63% shooting, but again faltered, going for 5.8/4.2/1.4 before Brand returned. So if Wilcox is going to have some value, chances are he’ll have it sooner rather than later.

Seattle doesn’t have too much of a choice but to give him some serious PT. Nick Collison is on the shelf, Reggie Evans is in Denver, Danny Fortson is done (but obviously giving Wilcox some hair style advice). That leaves Robert Swift, Mikki Moore and Johan Petro as the only bigs on Seattle in addition to Wilcox. In other words, Wilcox has every opportunity that he needs. But keep his history in mind. Wilcox still hasn’t mastered the art of playing defense (perhaps not a problem now that he’s on Seattle) or making his coaches like him. But hey, that’s why we play fantasy basketball. Translating Wilcox’s Seattle numbers (in an admittedly small 8 game sample) out to 34-35 minutes per game, we come up with 16.1/7.3/1.2 with 0.4 steals and 0.5 blocks. Solid, unspectacular, and strangley similar to those numbers he put up when he was a starter the past two years with the Clippers (at least during his “good” runs).

But might he be capable of putting up better numbers than that? Another thing I talk about a lot is what # scoring option you are on your team. Each team has a hierarchy and the more guys you have that are at the top of the totem pole on their respective teams, the better off you’ll be. Rashard Lewis is underrated for a ton of reasons, but one reason I’ve been especially high on him the past couple of years is that there’s simply nobody else on Seattle besides Ray Allen that can be counted on as a consistent scorer. With Luke Ridnour clearly more of a distributor than a scorer, Wilcox has a real chance to be the third man.

So what’s the bottom line? Wilcox should be good to go to plug into your lineups, as long as you see that he’s starting the next time Seattle takes the court. His numbers as a starter in L.A. and his pro-rated numbers so far with Seattle show that he might actually be pretty consistent, at least for a bit. He’s not going to block many shots, but he’s also not going to miss many shots. He’s a career 53% shooter and has never been below 50% for a season. I’ve paid added – and perhaps exaggerated – attention to percentages this season, just because I think it’s so easy to overlook them compared to the counting stats. But Wilcox should shoot enough to actually make a difference there. His game-to-game consistency is where the risk lies, especially for those of you in daily lineup change formats. That’s always the risk with waiver wire pickups. Here’s an example that I recently had to endure. I pick up Ruben Patterson after he takes over as Denver’s starting SG. After he logs 36 minutes in an impressive win against Detroit, I plug him in for the next game against Houston. He ends up shooting 2-for-12 with 6 points, 5 boards and nothing else. So I take him out of the lineup for his next game. He responds with 21/5/8, 3 steals and a block on 9-of-12 shooting. I bang my head on something. This is the inherent risk with free agent pickups. So just beware.

Calling Matt Foley

As we head into the home stretch for the season, you’ve got just a few days to take advantage of the trading deadline. If you’re looking for an overall strategy for the last months of the year, here’s one: Take the stud with something to prove. The motivated one. In any season, there are going to be teams that can relax a bit before the playoffs, teams that are so far out of it they go into shut-down, and then teams that are playing for their playoff lives. You want to have as many guys on teams in that last category as possible – particularly the stars on those teams. There’s no better fantasy player than the superstar that puts his team on his shoulders and carries them into the postseason. Let’s take a look at a few top picks and decide whether they’ve got motivation to pick it up down the stretch, or end up living in a van down by the river:

LeBron James – Perhaps no player will be scrutinized more over the last few months of the season than LeBron. With the Cavs already slipping in the standings, there is talk or last year’s meteoric fall out of the playoffs. With one addition done for the year (Larry Hughes), and two other drastically underperforming (Donyell Marshall and Damon Jones), it’s up to James to dominate. While it’s easy to say that James will be a top-3 player over the rest of the year, I’d go so far as to say that he’ll be the top player, overtaking Shawn Marion.

Kevin Garnett – Only the Big Ticket can be totally miserable and still be a fantasy stud. The one thing that you can say about KG is he won’t sit out any games – he’ll be in it until the end. Even though all signs point to him losing interest, my guess is he’ll be solid as usual through the rest of the season. What you see now is likely what you’ll see in the near future.

Kobe Bryant – Just behind LeBron in the “most motivated” category is Kobe. He’s shown that when he wants to, he can take over a game. At some point, he’s going to give up the “make it look like I’m a team player” attitude and instead score like a maniac. When that happens, you’re going to want him on your team. If you’re looking to make a move in points, you should do everything you can to pick up Kobe – he could very well average 40+ ppg in yet another month this season.

Tim Duncan – I’ve been talking for a little while about selling on Duncan, and I even sold him myself a few weeks ago. After a spectacular start to the season, it’s been all downhill for Timmy and his battle against Plantar Fas…um…facs…uh…his foot. His scoring was under 15 ppg last month, and he shot just 38.6% from the field and 55.6% from the line. That’s not the kind of production that’s going to propel the Spurs to a championship this summer, and so they may shut him down for a little bit. Either way, this is not a guy you want on your team. If you can sell high based on reputation alone, do it.

Allen Iverson – If anyone is going to challenge Kobe for the scoring title, it’s going to be AI. He’s been on an incredible tear lately, is posting a career-high in ppg, and is shooting at the second-highest percentage of his career. Unfortunately, his numbers are down – albeit slightly – in every other category this year. Here’s my guess – 76ers coach Maurice Cheeks is playing offensive-minded Stephen Hunter more than Sammy Dalembert early in games right now to take some of the scoring load off of AI. That may be bad for his ppg, but he’ll pick it up everywhere else and continue to be flat out awesome over the rest of the year.

Head-to-Head's Up (3/6-3/12)

We’ve got about seven weeks left in the NBA season, but if you’re getting antsy for March Madness or Baseball or just want to read about former NFL running back Lawrence Phillips’ latest escapades, please stop by Sports Troopers when you have a moment to join the fun.

As for the NBA, I think I got some good plug-ins for you next week 3/6-3/12. Let me know what you think.

Five Games: San Antonio.
Four Games: Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Golden State, Indiana, LAL, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto.
Three Games: Detroit, Houston, LAC, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Orlando, Philadelphia, Portland, Seattle, Utah, Washington.
Two Games: Atlanta, New York.

Plug ‘em in, Plug ‘em in:
Nazr Mohammed, C – After his inspired performance in last year’s playoffs many expected a bigger role for Mohammed this season. It took some time, but Nazr has finally supplanted EuroCenter Rasho Nesterovic in San Antonio’s starting lineup. Can you believe that 7-ft Rasho had only one game with 10 rebounds all season before losing his starting job? Meanwhile, Mohammed is averaging 11pts and 9 rebounds over his last six games including two double-doubles and a 20-rebound performance on Feb 15. He should have no trouble hanging on to the starting gig for the rest of the season. Nazr and the Spurs give new meaning to the phrase “busy schedule” this week with a whopping five games on tap (@LAL, @LAC, @PHO, LAL, HOU). Note: Michael Finley (who's been outplaying Ginobili recently) is also worth a look next week.

Jeff Foster, C – The Pacers' center may resemble a 7-foot vampire, but don’t be scared to take advantage of his rebounding and FG%. I like to call him a “poor man’s Tyson Chandler with no upside” which may not be all that flattering, but if you need a center who can clean the glass, Foster is your man. He’s averaging 8/14/1 over his last three contests and is shooting 55% from the floor this season. Get Dracula in your lineup for four battles next week.

Al Jefferson, PF – How many more times will I get my hopes up for Big Al before he really starts producing consistently? I was one of those fantasy owners who drafted him relatively early expecting double-doubles regularly from the big kid all year long. So he’s disappointed this year… get over it, and look ahead. The current situation in Boston seems to be a perfect opportunity for Al-Jeff to finally get it together. His frontcourt mate Kendrick Perkins will be out a couple more weeks with a dislocated shoulder and Jefferson should be given big minutes right away and could even get some starts at the five making him eligible at center. We’ve seen what rookie PF Ryan Gomes has been able to do while filling in upfront, so hopefully Jefferson can step up for four tilts next week. If he has any more setbacks I promise not to speak of him again until next season.

Antoine Walker, F – Every week it seems there's one player I reluctantly recommend plugging in. Employee #8 has long been a favorite punching bag of mine as an exemplary NBA slacker, but he still has the ability to contribute some decent fantasy numbers when he plays. ‘Toine has been getting just over 30 minutes a game lately, which is right around his threshold for fantasy relevance. Walker ’06 may be a far cry from Walker circa 2000, but he’s averaging a worthwhile 14/6/2 with 2.2 treys and 1 steal over his last half dozen games. He's a decent play at your utility spot right now while he’s outplaying fellow underachiever James Posey.

Deron Williams, PG – The first point guard selected in last year’s draft, Williams has mostly been a disappointment in Salt Lake City this season. The former Illini ball handler started the year pretty strong and even worked his way into the starting lineup for about a month, but coach Jerry Sloan got fed up with the rookie and decided to go with veterans Keith McCleod and Milt Palacio for quite some time. Deron is now back in Sloan’s SLU and has scored double figures in four straight games, averaging 15/3/5 with 2.5 triples and 1.3 thefts over that span. He is a nice addition to your squad and if (that's a BIG if) he can keep it up, he should be a solid #2 PG the rest of the way.

Marcus Banks, PG – This guy has been a very nice surprise since coming to the land of 10,000 lakes in the Szczerbiak/Davis deal a month ago. Marko Jaric already played himself out of a starting job and Banks also pushed veteran PG Anthony Carter out of the way with ease. Marcus has now started three consecutive games for the Wolves and is averaging 14/4/6 on 55% shooting and 1.5 steals over his last four. Minnesota is falling out of playoff contention fast and they may be well on their way to rebuilding mode. Banks will have his ups and downs but he makes a nice start with four games including a couple of sweet matchups @SEA and @PHO to finish the week.

Ronald or Ruben?

We can all agree that the trade deadline week was a dud. There were some nice deals made in the weeks leading up to it, but deadline day itself was a whole lot of nothing. Still, we thought a few guys who switched cities would eventually have some increased value and last night seemed to signal that the time is now for two of those guys – Ronald “Flip” Murray and Ruben “I can’t retaliate because I’m on probation, so I would get in trouble” Patterson. Who’s the better bet from here on out? Let’s investigate.

A few days ago I expressed my skepticism on Flip Murray. I said that the only category he’d be consistent in would be FG%, and that wasn’t a good thing. He didn’t let me down by shooting 2-for-12 that night, but in his other two most recent games he’s shot 16-for-29. Another reason I wasn’t sold on him was that there were three guys fighting for PT at the SG position: Flip, Sasha Pavlovic and Damon Jones. But it seems that in just a week’s time Murray has established himself as the man at the position. After starting 19 straight games – during which the team went 12-7, it should be pointed out – Pavlovic has become completely irrelevant, playing just 13 minutes in the past two games. And Damon Jones … it just isn’t happening for Damon Jones this year. The bottom line is this – Flip has played 84 minutes over the past two games. It is near impossible to get that much PT and not have considerable fantasy value. I still maintain that he’s going to do some serious damage to your FG% -- he’s shooting a nice 45.5% this season, but is a career 40.5% shooter. But if you’ve watched Flip play, you know that he’s a me-first guy. He likes to make sure his stat sheet gets filled up. And everyone remembers his glorious month as Ray Allen’s fill-in a few years ago. There seems to be little reason he can’t firmly entrench himself as the team’s #3 option. When his shot’s not falling he will do plenty of damage, but as long as the minutes are there, he’s a worthy starting option. Think of him as comparable to Juan Dixon.

It took one game for Ruben Patterson to get acclimated enough to enter the starting lineup for the Denver Nuggets. He wasn’t all that impressive last night – 6-for-16, 13/7/0 with a steal and a block – but the Nuggets handled the Pistons, which was truly impressive. Patterson has stepped into a pretty good situation in Denver. The Nuggets are one of the league’s highest scoring teams, averaging just over 100 points per game. They are physically beat up, with much of their frontcourt and their starting SG fighting injuries. Patterson is a versatile player who easily slots in at SG or SF and if the team goes small, he can even handle duties at the 4 if necessary. Pattesron would be an absolutely perfect pick up for a team that’s within .05 in FG% of a bunch of teams, needs to move up in steals and is pretty isolated in FT%. Because it’s a fact, Ruben can’t shoot free throws. His career average is right around 65%, but he hasn’t even approached that number over the past few years. Think of him as more of a 55-60% free thrower who will have no trouble getting to the line enough to do some damage. On the 15 Day Rater, he’s -3.82 in FT%. That’s somewhere in between Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard, and obviously without the strengths of those two. I wasn’t able to catch any of the Pistons/Nuggets game last night, but it seems like Patterson may have had a hand in keeping them to 39% shooting. With Earl Boykins, DeMarr Johnson and eventually Greg Buckner around, Patterson may find it hard to see as much PT as Murray in Cleveland. But as we get closer to the end of the season and coaches start figuring out their best lineups, rotations will get slimmer and that will mean more minutes divvied up for fewer players, which is always a good thing in fantasy land.

So who’s the better bet? The fact that I picked up Patterson last night makes me want to say him, but it looks like Murray is already quite firmly entrenched as a top option on his time. But if Patterson can get into a steals groove (check out January and February of last year when he started for the Blazers), it may be hard to tell the difference.

Playing for Keeps

When it comes to fantasy sports, some strategies require you to go all-out if you want them to work. One of these, which we discussed a few weeks ago, is punting a category. The only way to succeed in punting a category is to get rid of EVERY asset you have in the category. Keeper leagues, to me, are the same way. As the trade deadline for many leagues is only about a week away, if you’re in a keeper league, you’ve got a decision to make: Are you a have, or a have-not?

Of course, qualifying as a “have” means taking into account many different variables. How many teams are in the money at the end of the season, how far out of the money you are (if you’re currently in the money, clearly, you’re a “have”), and how good a shot you have at getting in the money based on the categories. Regardless, it is critical that you make this decision right now, while there’s still time to make some trades to set you up for either a late-season push, or to stock up on keepers for next year.

So, once you’ve made your decision, it’s time to make some serious roster moves. If you’re in a keeper league, there should be a flurry of trade activity in the next week. Much like punting a category, you’ve got to get rid of EVERY asset that is helping you towards a goal you’re not attempting to reach. For example:

In our league (which isn’t a keeper league, but nonetheless), the three worst teams in the league have players like Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, and Tim Duncan on their squads. If this was a keeper league, by the end of next week, these guys should all be on teams trying to win championships. What good are these guys doing on bad teams? If you’re in last place, Kobe Bryant is just sitting there wasting value. You should be moving him to a contender in exchange for guys with good keeper value. Who cares if the move is totally lopsided – if you’ve got no shot at winning this year, getting a guy with keeper value is more valuable to your team than your first-round pick from this year.

Similarly, if you’re in contention in your league, you should be offering every player with keeper value to the guys in the bottom of the standings, searching for studs. Remember, the best opportunity for trades are when players have different values for different teams. This is a perfect example of that.

So with that said, who are the guys with the most keeper value? Well, rules are different in every league. So, it’s really tough to say with different round-value rules, lengths of time you can keep guys, etc. But odds are any guy who’s has a breakout season this year is a nice keeper (David West, for example, or Gerald Wallace). Also, many rookies are going to end up having very strong keeper value, like Charlie Villanueva or Raymond Felton.

Still, as great as David West has been this year, he’s got much more value for a team at the bottom of the standings than he does for a team at the top. Just like right now, LeBron’s got more value for a team at the top of the standings than he does for a team at the bottom. West for LeBron? Only in keeper leagues.