Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Transaction Review: Jamaal Magloire to Portland

Perhaps the second-worst kept secret in basketball (behind the still-not-completed Al Harrington to Indiana deal), Jamaal Magloire finally got dealt to the Trail Blazers over the weekend. With four guys moving in the deal, and pretty serious PT implications for both teams, let’s look at the winners and losers from a fantasy perspective:

Big Winners:

Jarrett Jack, POR – In just a few short weeks, Jack has seen his competition for minutes in the Portland backcourt turn from lottery pick Sebastian Telfair and super-reliable Steve Blake to rookie Sergio Rodriguez and 13th-man Dan Dickau. Jack had a solid, if unspectacular, rookie campaign, and showed improvement throughout the year. The big question mark for Jack from a fantasy perspective is if he be able to contribute anywhere other than points and assists. His percentages are just average, he doesn’t shoot much from the arc (and only hit 26% from there last year), and he doesn’t show a great penchant for steals, a real downside for a point guard. Still, now that he’s got the keys to the ship, he’s a nice candidate for 30 mpg and could be a nice sleeper as a second or third point guard.

Andrew Bogut, MIL – Bogut is a great candidate for a breakout player this year, and the only question is if he’ll be over-hyped in your league and get drafted too early. Swapping Magloire for Ha Seung Jin and Brian Skinner in the front court means that Bogut will be counted on to play upwards of 35 mpg for the Bucks this year. Combine the uptick in minutes with the extra experience and Bogut is in line to become one of the most solid centers in the league. He doesn’t block a ton of shots, but he is a double-double waiting to happen, steals at a decent rate, and even passes very well for a center (2.3 apg last year). If you can get him as a second center, that’s a great pickup, but most likely he’ll be drafted as a first center by someone in your league. I’m not sure he’s earned that yet, but it’s a good gamble.

Big Losers:

Joel Przybilla/Jamaal Magloire, POR: Ah, nothing like two marginally decent centers on the same team to cancel each other’s value. Magloire showed that he can play next to another center when he did so with Bogut in Milwaukee, but that was because Bogut could, on occasion, move to the four. Przybilla is strictly a center, and so these guys will be in a pretty serious battle for PT in training camp. This is a wait-and-see situation, for now.

Steve Blake/Charlie Bell/Mo Williams, MIL – As always, we need to put in the disclaimer that here at FBB, we love us some Stevie Blake. We’re UMD alums, he was our favorite player while we were there, and if we were running an NBA team he would be our starting PG and get 40 mpg. That said, we are not running an NBA team. More specifically, we are not running the Milwaukee Bucks. So he won’t see 40 mpg. Still, the Bucks supposedly really held out for Blake during negotiations, meaning that they weren’t happy with just Bell and Williams at the point. So Blake will have a role, but likely not enough of one to have value, while he’ll also take away any chance of value from the incumbent guys.

Minor Winners:

Brandon Roy, POR – less people in the backcourt means more time for Roy, who actually could see some time at the point now.

Charlie Villanueva, MIL – Despite the crowd, Magloire saw 30 mpg last year, and now those minutes are for C-Vill to have.

Minor Losers:

LaMarcus Aldridge, POR – Wasn’t likely to have value anyways, but this should seal the deal.


Blogger Smooth said...

Agree with your assessments on value winners/losers. Przybilla probably won't be happy but, unlike Magloire, he hasn't proven he can stay healthy for a full season so I think the Blazers made a very good trade in real life. As for fantasy... d'oh!

I do have to say that everything I am hearing about Brandon Roy is pointing towards a potential late-round steal. I'm from Portland so he'll probably get taken too early in our draft, though.

1:48 PM  

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