Thursday, July 06, 2006

Transaction Review: Chandler, Mohammed, Przybilla, Daniels, Fisher

Chicago Bulls trade Tyson Chandler to NOK Hornets for PJ Brown and JR Smith.

This is great news for Chandler, as he moves away from a crowded front court into a wide open one. He has yet to average 30 mpg, despite his massive contract extension, but that could change now. And if it does, you could be looking at your new leading rebounder in the NBA. Tyson was tied with Dwight Howard last year for highest rebounds per 48 minutes with 16.2. If he gets 35 mpg, he’ll be one of the top rebounders in the league – he was close to that last year with just 26.8 mpg. I have already mentioned that I’m not much of a fan of Hilton Armstrong, so 35 mpg is a fairly reasonable estimate for Tyson.

The real question for Chandler is his offense. I really think that his putrid scoring numbers were more a result of the system in Chicago than his inabilities. Remember, his second year in the league he scored 9.2 ppg on 53% shooting. He’s certainly capable of putting the ball in the basket, but he just got on Scott Skiles’ bad side last year (which has happened to others before). Look for his scoring to return to near double digits in NOK. I think Chandler has the potential to be a nice mid-round sleeper this year and could have a breakout year.

As for Brown and Smith, they’ll be nothing more than role players in Chicago. Brown may have been draftable in NOK, but not in Chicago where he’ll be fighting Ben Wallace, Tyrus Thomas, and others for PT. Smith may eventually be a nice NBA player, but it’s going to take some injuries to the guys in front of him for him to have fantasy value this year.

Detroit Pistons sign Nazr Mohammed

Mohammed has been the model of consistency over the last five years. In Atlanta, New York, and San Antonio, he’s been a guy that teams could count on to eat minutes at center, and do it somewhat productively. He’s been counted on for anywhere from 15-25 mpg depending on the situation, and provides some rebounding and some scoring, but that’s about it. I think that he’ll continue doing that in Detroit. He’s always been a borderline fantasy guy, and unless there’s an injury to one of the Pistons’ other frontcourt guys, that should be the situation here, too.

What the Wallace-for-Mohammed also does is opens up more PT (potentially) for Antonio McDyess. McDyess might get his minutes kept to the 20 or so per game that he’s been seeing simply to keep him healthy. But he could also get into the 6th man of the year award discussion if he starts seeing 30 mpg. McDyess could be a decent late-round choice in drafts, or a guy to watch for an early waiver-wire pickup next year.

Portland Trail Blazers resign Joel Przybilla

Przybilla may have stayed in place, but the pieces around him have been moving in a whirlwind. Exit Theo Ratliff, but enter Raef LaFrentz and LaMarcus Aldridge. Nik Tskitishvili came and went. Brian Skinner is still around. So why would his stats change all that much? He’ll continue to be a blocks machine and contribute a bit in rebounding, but as things stand right now he’s not going to see much more in the way of minutes. Portland is probably not done dealing, though, so this is a wait-and-see.

Dallas Mavericks trade Marquis Daniels to Indiana Pacers for Austin Croshere

Marquis Daniels immediately becomes everyone’s favorite sleeper this year with this move away from the Mavericks, but I’m not buying it. Other than steals, Daniels hasn’t shown himself to really be much of a fantasy asset even when getting 28 mpg. Look at last December, when he saw 35 mpg in Dallas. He shined in a few games, but his final stats for the month – 14.4/4.7/3.7 with 1 steal and .4 blocks – weren’t all that much to write home about. Sure he’ll be worth drafting and – probably – worth starting as a utility guy, but he doesn’t excel in any one category. I would hold off until the late rounds before taking him. DM would disagree. We’ll see.

As for Croshere, he’ll fill Keith Van Horn’s role – 20 mpg, not much value. Even with all the injury and suspension issues the Pacers have had over the past few years, Croshere has not managed to hold any real value, and that shouldn’t change here.

Golden State Warriors trade Derek Fisher to Utah for some scrubs.

I’m not going to talk about how terrible the Warriors are. This isn’t the place for that – let’s just look at the fantasy implications. Fisher in Utah, he’ll be a nice role player for them and could have some fantasy value. But it will be stretch for him to get more than the 31 mpg he got last year in Golden State, and odds are he’ll see closer to 25, meaning he’s more likely to be waiver wire fodder.

What this really means in Golden State is that if/when Baron Davis goes down again, Monta Ellis will be given the keys to the ship. I don’t think you can draft him necessarily, but when Davis goes down, he should be picked up immediately. We know he’s quick, and he should be able to contribute in steals, but his percentages and turnovers were pretty bad last year. We’ll have to see how much he improves over the summer before really passing judgement.

2 Comments:

Anonymous ambitextrous said...

Glad to see you guys are back posting. Of the players traded and drafted, I don't really see a potential breakout yet, except for Battier, but hopefully the pot will be stirred further by preseason's end.

11:25 AM  
Blogger Jeremy said...

It should be interesting to see how Mike James signing in Minnesotta affects his value...I don't know if he'll put the numbers he did last year.

However, it does mean Rafer Alston will continue to have value, and I like that (although Battier may take some of his scoring...until T-Mac gets hurt again).

4:42 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home