Wednesday, March 08, 2006

FBB Potpourri

A couple of random thoughts on my mind as the fantasy deadline approaches …

- If you’re looking for a guy to make a big impact on your team who could possibly be had on the cheap, here’s a name that doesn’t get mentioned often with “cheap”: Shaquille O’Neal. Time is running out for the Diesel to win a title sans Kobe, and as Shaq likes to remind us, he gives different amounts of effort as the season progresses. After lulling through January, he picked up his scoring, blocks, and FG% last month. With Dwyane Wade hurting, Shaq could be in line for some big numbers over the next few weeks. Watching him last night, he looked as in shape as he’s been in awhile. Shaq has been “overvalued” in fantasy leagues for years, and all the talk may make him undervalued now. If you can afford the hit in FT%, he could be a really solid pickup.

- We’ve had questions in the past few weeks about managing total games played. My first few tries at fantasy basketball, I always liked to have some games stored for a late-season push. The problem is, as the end of the season nears, it’s tougher to judge who’s going to get playing time. As NBA teams fall out of contention, and others solidify their playoff spots, more coaches shake up their lineups, and as any Knicks owners know, that can be incredibly frustrating. I always ended up using my saved games on guys who ended up with 2-point, 3-board nights, and the surge just never materialized. You’re much better off keeping your games right on pace for the maximum as the year progresses.

- If you’re looking for some keepers, I’d highly recommend looking at the Atlanta Hawks. With Al Harrington likely out the door this summer, that will clear up a ton of PT for Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams. True, the Hawks will have some significant cap space to work with, but that will likely be spent on either a point guard to move Joe Johnson to the 2, or a center (if there are any to be had). Smith, Childress and Williams are all terrific keepers for next year. They must have been drafted pretty low this year, but all could be mid-round picks next fall, depending on how the summer shakes out.

All three guys are nice players, but my favorite right now is Williams, who has been pretty solid since the All-Star break. He seems to be playing more on the inside lately, getting to the line more often, grabbing more offensive rebounds, and shooting at a higher percentage. He’s shown nice development in his rookie year, and I think he’ll have enough value to be a third forward next year.

- Here’s something interesting. And by interesting, I mean frustrating. Boris Diaw is starting at center for the Phoenix Suns. This isn’t a secret. Yahoo! Sports is aware of it. I know this, of course, because their depth chart for the Suns shows Diaw as the starting center. It’s been happening for awhile now. 6 games, in fact. And yet, he doesn’t qualify at center yet in Yahoo leagues! Why? Who knows? I’m not a Diaw owner, but still, it’s pretty annoying. Anyone know when he’ll start qualifying at center?

- Finally, let me say a few words about Darko. Our resident Darko Enthusiast, PR, has been very high on the new Floridian. Right now, though, he’s helping in one category, and one category only: blocks. His stats right now are very similar to Adonal Foyle, who can be found on just about every waiver wire in the country. I’m just not convinced he’s going to do that much more – this year – than Foyle, at least if he continues to see just 20 mpg. Should he get closer to 30, he’ll be worth a closer look, but for now, I’d look for help in another place.

12 Comments:

Anonymous Charlie said...

Hey guys. Need some trade help. I've been offered Diaw and Dwight Howard for Brevin Knight and Kirilenko. What do you think? Knight is very valuable in our league (and underrated everywhere) due to high value of assists (spts/assist). It's a head to head, weekly total average for each player league. So with assists, points, and steals, brevin averages the same as dwight howard. Would I be better off offering Rasheed and Brevin for Diaw and Howard? Howard's TO's bring his value down since TO's are -2.

Also, Kirilenko's best games could be ahead of him. Thoughts? Here's the rest of my squad:

Starters:
Kirilenko
Knight
Billups
Wade
R. Wallace
C. Paul
Felton
Ilgauskus

Bench:
Flip Murray
Zaza
Tim Thomas
Anthony Johnson

Anyone you would possibly deal due to decrease in playing time i.e. Billups and Rasheed? Help!

1:24 PM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Re: Diaw

Number me among the growing ranks of very pissed off Diaw owners in Yahoo leagues. As someone who's limped through a two center league all season long with barely one - never mind two - decent C options, I've been anticipating Diaw's C eligibility with barely concealed glee. Imagine: a C who is a triple double threat on any give night; wotta unbelievable luxury!

Why it hasn't happened yet in Yahoo is a mystery to me. I remember reading in a comment appended to one of your Center of Attention postings awhile back that the powers that be at Yahoo have two criteria for awarding position eligibility: (1) 5 consecutive games played at the position (which Diaw has already satisfied) or (2) whether or not a player "looks the part" at a particular position.

Obviously, the latter is a far more subjective qualification than the former and one, it seems, that Diaw would have a much harder time meeting. I mean, it's just not reasonable to expect that one player could competently play at the 2,3,4 and 5 now, is it?

1:52 PM  
Blogger T-Plan said...

RE: Yahoo's eligibility rules . . .

There is no formula, nor a specific rule they use. The one concrete thing they say is that the person's primary position must change, and not on a temporary basis. For Diaw, everyone knows he will move back out of the C spot when Amare and Kurt Thomas return, so don't hold your breath on him getting the elibility. I've gone entire seasons waiting for them to wake up about a player, and there's no simple way to understand their thinking.

Look at their rationale as posted on Yahoo Fantasy Basketball "Help":

http://help.yahoo.com/help/us/hoops/hoops-29.html

What determines the position eligibility for each player?
Initial position eligibility for each player was determined based on past participation and information supplied by the teams during the offseason.
Players will be eligible at one or more positions during the 2005-06 Yahoo! Sports Fantasy NBA season depending upon their real-life participation.

All position eligibility requests are reviewed by Yahoo! Sports and confirmed with our basketball sources. Due to the nature of the review process, we are unable to comment on each individual player request.

Updates will be made during the regular season based on changes to the lineups and official team rosters. Players will not lose position eligibility when moving from one real-life position to another. So, if a forward begins to play regularly at center, he will be eligible for the remainder of the season as a forward and a center.

New positions are added when it is confirmed that a player's primary position has changed and that the change is not expected to be a temporary one.

When a player has earned eligibility at a new position, the position will be visible on the drop-down position menu on your team roster.

2:12 PM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Charlie:

If you think that Diaw will ever get C eligibility (admittedly a very big if) I'd try and pawn off 'Sheed rather than Knight... as you might be able to eventually replace him w/ Diaw at center.

'Sheed is quite a risky play at this point as he has maxed out the number of technicals the NBA will allow in a season without incurring additional penalty. For every "T" that he draws from here on, he will receive an automatic one game suspension. Obviously, that can play havoc with your totals in a weekly league should he get T'd up early or mid-week. Unless you think that 'Sheed will be able to keep his emotional outbursts bottled up for the rest of the season, he's a good guy to try and peddle to an unsuspecting owner right now.

2:17 PM  
Anonymous Charlie said...

I'm not worried about Sheed's possible suspensions since my league is based on weekly averages. If Sheed misses a game mid-week, it won't really hurt me since a missed game doesn't count against averages. If he has 2 other good games in that same week, no harm done. It's not a "total stats" league.

Basically, I need to know why this guy's peddling Diaw so hard. He's in first place, and his team's solid. Does he think Diaw will lose value with Amare? Do you think that?

And what about Howard? Would you target him in a trade? Should I just hold onto Chauncey, Brevin, Kirilenko, Sheed, etc?

3:42 PM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Diaw should not lose any value upon Amare's return. Honestly, does anyone believ that the Suns envision Boris as a long-term option at center?

I think Diaw has solidified his position in the starting lineup, which I see looking like this when Amare returns:

PG: Nash
SG: Bell/Barbosa
SF: Diaw/Marion
PF: Marion/Diaw
C: Amare

Bottom line: I think Diaw still sees 35+ mpg even after Amare come back.

4:17 PM  
Blogger Jeremy said...

For some reason it looks like my post didn't make it on here...maybe it's in the wrong thread.

In any case, I just dropped Perkins in favor of Josh Howard, and have one more spot that is up for grabs. I would like to improve in boards, blocks and perhaps 3's, and percentages would be nice too.

I currently have Marcus Banks in that spot, but I don't like the dynamic of Jaric taking PT from him. Essentially, here the players in my league that I am targeting:

Anthony Johnson, Darius Miles, Reuben Patterson, Marko Jaric, Marcus Banks, Joel Pryzbilla and Kendrick Perkins (if healthy), Jumaine Jones...can't think of anyone else right now.

Obviously someone is going to get hurt and a player will get good opportunities to contribute....but whom is the best bet going forward. If Miles ft% wasn't so bad I'd snatch him up, as he could definately help. I don't know how fast Banks will drop nor if he will, as he has played pretty good since heading to Minny...and if he can get my numbers like he has for the last few (excluding the last game) then I'd like to keep him

Advice? thanks.

4:12 AM  
Blogger T-Plan said...

to jeremy:

It will be super hard to get boards, blocks, and 3s unless someone dropped Delonte West in your league. He is a FA in my league as of now, and I'm waiting anxiously for him to play so I can finally dump Eddie Jones for an upgrade. EJ might be gimpy the rest of the way.

From your list, I like Patterson (who will be a starter in Denver the rest of the way) for decent boards and steals, plus FG%. But he sucks at the line as well, so if you don't like Miles you have a similar player. I also like Prz from Portland, assuming he comes back full strength. He could offer many boards and blocks, but sucks at the line and splits time with Ratliff.

Patterson is the best bet for minutes. Prz for blocks boards. Both suck at FT%. Miles has been a been sluggish since returning, which tells me the knee is not 100%.

From another perspective, Anthony Johnson has been lighting it up. He helps in 3s, points, assists, and a few steals. I won a league last season using him in the playoffs, so don't undervalue his potential. And Tinsley won't get over 25 mpg the rest of the way IMO, so worst case, AJ runs around 24-25 minutes and still does OK.

10:20 AM  
Blogger JM said...

Regarding Diaw / Yahoo position eligibility.

Yahoo's explanation for why it gives people new position eligibility does not match up with some of its decisions, i.e Pau Gasol got C-eligibility even though his 5-games as a starting Center was only a temporary move made when their starter was hurt (Lorenzen Wright).

According to Yahoo's explanation, a player will be given a new postion eligibility if "the change is not expected to be a temporary one."

There's plenty of examples of players who have multi-position eligibility even though they rarely play that position i.e. Rasheed Wallace (C).

so why does Gasol get it, but Diaw doesn't? we'll never know...

1:14 PM  
Blogger Jeremy said...

Temporary? Diaw is gonna be the starting center for Pheonix for about 20 games this season at least...meaning 25% of the season. That's way more deserving than someone like Matt Bonner or even a Chris Wilcox.

Perplexing...yes, but Yahoo needs to step up ot the plate and realize that Diaw is also a center in addition to being a PG too...I really want him to have every position eligibility...uber-awesome.

Between him and Joe Johnson (PG-F) I have the most versitive lineup in my league I think.

1:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ruban Patterson played another productive game tonight, do you guys think he's a more stable option than Darius Miles for the rest of the season?

10:32 PM  
Blogger T-Plan said...

Darius Miles confirmed that he is still gimpy and it is affecting his play. Patterson is doing great so I'd switch out now.

By the way, Yahoo gave Diaw C eligibility today!!!!!

12:20 PM  

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