Thursday, February 23, 2006

Putting the “Dead” in Deadline

“I think I'm going to do a late-afternoon/early evening post to go over all the deals that happen today”
- Me, in an e-mail to DM and PR this morning.

- Me, now.

Barring any late reports on a blockbuster of any kind, Deadline Day came and went this year and barely an “add” was made in most fantasy leagues. Still, there are a few things to note for fantasy players. Let’s go down the depressingly short lists:

Three guys who have more value in their new digs:

1. Flip Murray in Cleveland.
Murray should become the new starting shooting guard in Cleveland, and in fact could spend some time backing up Eric Snow at the point. He’s worth a pickup in most leagues as Sasha Pavlovic has been a pretty big disappointment as the replacement to Larry Hughes. In fact, Murray is pretty much a Hughes-lite – a combo guard who likes to shoot, despite a relatively low percentage. Murray might be the only “no-brainer” pickup for fantasy players today, but I’m not sure I could even endorse him as a no-brainer.

2. Brian Skinner in Portland.
In related news, Portland hires Superintendent Chalmers as an assistant coach. Skinner has some short term value for two very simple reasons – one, he qualifies at center, and two, his only competition for PT is Ha Seung-Jin. Until Theo Ratliff or Joel Przybilla come back, Skinner could be a nice quick-fix at center. But his long-term value is still pretty slim.

3. Marc Jackson in Oklahoma City.
Some folks are thinking that Jackson will be worth a pickup, but really, I just don’t see it happening. You’re telling me that he’ll put up anything better the than 12/5 with an OK FT% that he had last year in Philly? I mean, yes, he’s a center, but he doesn’t act like one – he won’t give you much of anything in blocks or FG%. Only if you’re desperate.

One guy who has more value (maybe) by staying right where he is:

1. Travis Outlaw.
When Ruben Patterson got moved out of Portland, Travis Outlaw saw a lot of PT open up for him. Now, admittedly, Darius Miles’ return might offset this, but Outlaw is an FBB favorite and he’s been on my radar screen for quite a while. I talked about his strengths on Wednesday, and now I’m hoping that he’ll find his way into the lineup more often.

Three guys who have seen their value take a hit:

1. Sasha Pavlovic
Pavlovic is one of those guys that has the rare talent of getting almost 30 mpg and still have minimal fantasy value. With Flip now in the equation, Pavlovic shouldn’t be considered a guy of any value whatsoever.

2. Greg Buckner
Buckner was just starting to garner some attention now that he started getting major minutes in Denver and putting up nice numbers in steals and threes. Now that Ruben Patterson has entered the equation, though, I’d expect Buckner’s minutes to take a hit (what, you though ‘Melo would hit the bench?), and put him back in fantasy purgatory.

3. Luke Ridnour
Now, this is going to be a very minor hit. But now that he’s got a real-life backup behind him, Luke might see a slight drop in minutes. Still, this might not be a bad thing, as he’s been playing a ton of minutes lately and could use a little rest. Maybe he’ll get that awful 3-point percentage back up over 30%.

That’s it. Also, due to some technical difficulties (thanks again, Comcast!) PR’s weekly “Head-to-Heads Up” column might not be up until late Friday or Saturday. Let’s all keep our fingers crossed.


Blogger JM said...

Who would you rather pick up - Flip Murray or Mo Williams?

MO's been good this year (when healthy), but was recently dropped in my league.
I'm enticed by his assists (4.1), 3's (1.5), pts (14.3), and FT% (84.3%)

I go to a couple Blazers games per month and am a fan of Outlaw's, but won't add him until he consisently gets 25 minutes/game.

To add Williams or Murray I would likely drop Brian Cook.

11:37 PM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Although I'm no fan of his game, I'm surprised you didn't list Voshon Lenard as a decent speculative pickup.

The Blazers have been desperate for someone - anyone - who is able to fill it up from the perimeter. Until now, the entire burden of that role has rested solely on Juan Dixon's skinny shoulders. Even though I don't see him taking over Dixon's starting job, Lenard could easily log 25 minutes a night in relief for the scoring-starved Portland squad.

So for those seeking help w/ threes & scoring (but little else), Voshon is your man.

2:25 AM  
Anonymous Andy said...

bublitchki - Voshon's always been streaky even when healthy, though. And he's got to be incredibly rusty right now (will he even be in game shape)?

JM - it kind of depends on what you need and where you're at in your league. I owned Mo earlier this year and he was great, but he's definitely an injury risk, especially because he's battled plantar fasciitis which tends to linger for entire seasons. When healthy, Mo has more value than Flip, but there's a good chance he won't stay healthy from here on out. Still, if you're in a decent position, he's a good pickup. He's rusty right now, but in a few games he should start draining 3s again.

If you're behind in your league, however, Murray is a good speculative pickup. He'll be playing a much different role in Cleveland and all indications are that he'll be getting plenty of minutes, possibly as a starter. It's a gamble, but I think he's got enough talent to put up some nice scoring numbers while also chipping in some assists, rebounds, and steals. Problem is he WILL hurt you in FG% and turnovers, and he's not a 3-point shooter.

11:15 AM  
Blogger bv said...

bublitchki, i'm gonna have to disagree. I saw Lenard more as a salary dump than anything else. I'd expect to see Lenard getting no more than 15 mpg, and honestly i wouldn't even be surprised if he got released. But hey, that's why everyone's rosters aren't the same.

11:22 AM  
Blogger JM said...

What do you think Ruben Patterson's odds are of starting at SG for Denver?

If he can get 25-30 minutes a game, he's great for stls and fg%, with decent pts,rebs,asts, but terrible for FT%.

He's a great fit for the Nuggets fast paced style.

1:02 PM  

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