Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Please Mr. Postman

As promised, today we’ll open up the mailbag to see what you all are talking about …

Q: Hey guys, got a question today regarding the SG position on my team. I'm down to James Posey, who I was going to get rid of after this week. I have a few guys in the FA pool I hope you guys can rank for me.This is a 12 team, H2H league, 12 catagories, FGM, FTM, 3Pt%, and TOs are all counted. These are the guys I think are worth a shot. Sarunas Jasikevicius, Smush Parker, David Wesley, JR Smith, Desmond Mason, Kareem Rush, Devin HarrisThanksMin

A: Well, you’ve got a pretty healthy list of people there on your waiver wire for a 12-team league. First, let’s trim the fat: Kareem Rush, Devin Harris, and David Wesley are all nice players to be sure, but none of them are going to really be effective from a fantasy standpoint right now. That could change with injuries (particularly for Harris, should Jason Terry get injured), but they are a clear step down from the rest of the class.

Of the rest, it really depends on what you need. Parker, Jasikevicius and Smith (I’m assuming you mean the NOK one) are all very similar players whose value really lies in their three pointers. Should Jamaal Tinsley get hurt for an extended period (which he usually does), Jasikevicius could have the most value of the three, but as it is I like JR Smith the best right now.

That said, Desmond Mason – if he’s still available – should be the guy to target. It’s taken him a while to break into the rotation but now that he’s there, he’ll start to put up similar numbers to last year in Milwaukee, with about 17 points and 4-5 boards. He’ll definitely end up being the most consistent of those guys – don’t let the rough start to the season fool you.

Q: Hey guys,
What to do with Kirilenko? Tons of owners are trying to buy low in him but I've stayed strong. Wait until a breakout game then sell high? What should I expect in return?

Thanks guys,

A: Well, DM talked to this yesterday in the comments section, but I’ve got to say I’m a little concerned about AK47. Sure, right now, he’s coming back from injury, but if you look at how he’s performed after his stellar 2003 season, the numbers aren’t very encouraging. Last year, he saw drops in boards, points and steals, and the trends are continuing this year. He’s also shooting from beyond the arc less often and less accurately. Sure the blocks are as strong as ever, but what makes Kirilenko so great from a fantasy standpoint is his statistical versatility. That seems to be on the way down.

Another concern has to be the injuries. Now, all of the injuries he’s suffered have been one-time deals. Ankles and wrists are much less scary than knees and backs. But at some point, one-time deals turn into trends. Maybe he’s just a reckless player – lots of times you’ve gotta sacrifice your body to get the steals and blocks that he does. Right now, if you can sell him at a second-round value, I think you should do it. But if you can buy him for a third- or fourth-round value, I think that’s worth considering as well.

Q: Hey, what’s up with Rasheed Wallace? He’s way over his career averages in “little guy” categories: 3s, assists, steals, and FT%. And he’s well below his averages in typical center cats like rebounds, points, and FG%. All in all, of course, he’s playing much better than last year for roto purposes. Is his performance so far a fluke, or part of the new coaching style in Detroit? Is it time to trade him?

A: What’s up with Sheed? How about, what’s up with the Pistons? A team that’s scored 91.4, 90.1 and 93.3 points in ’02 – ’04 is racking up 98.9 ppg this year under new coach Flip Saunders, good for 7th in the league. They’re also passing the ball much better than in the past, with 23.9 apg, second only to the Suns, and much higher than the 21.8 apg they had last year.

Sheed is the second-biggest benefactor in the new offense behind Chauncey Billups, and while I think his value this year will be higher than it was in the past, you’ve got to assume that those steals will come down to around 1 per game, and that eventually his 3PT% will drop back to his career level and he’ll land around 1.5 3’s per game. If that sounds good to your team – I’d say keep him. You likely won’t get the value you deserve for a player like Sheed who does so many of the “little guy” things, like you said.

Q: Assuming Darius Miles is out with season ending injury (cartilage damage), who is to be picked up? Pryzbilla and Zach are already picked up, but what do you think about the fantasy values of telfair, dixon, and patterson? (or even webster)Thanks, Patrick

A: Great question. Let’s go through the list (and we’ll even add one).

Telfair: He should already be on a roster in your league, but if not, go grab him. This injury means he’ll be scoring more and that means he moves from marginal value to a decent utility player.

Dixon: No one is dearer to our hearts than Dixon (we’re both UMD grads), but as a fantasy player, he needs to consistently play 35 mpg to really have value because he can be so inconsistent with his shot. And he’s not going to get 35 mpg.

Patterson: Here’s my pick for the biggest benefactor. It’s no secret that Patterson and the Blazers don’t get along. With Miles out, now Portland can play Patterson plenty to boost his trade value. Last night was a great example, as he played 28 minutes and put up 19 points. Not a bad performance. He’s worth picking up if you’ve got an extra bench spot.

Webster: If you like JR Smith (The NOK version), you’ll love Martell Webster. It’s just too soon for this guy right now.

Travis Outlaw: Here’s the guy that we’d love to see get the minutes. His combination of steals and blocks are quite a fantasy commodity – only about 10 players average over 1 steal and 1 block per game. Given 25-30 mpg, he could be one of these players. Unfortunately, I just don’t see him getting the time while they’re showcasing Patterson.

And if you want to know what DM thinks, here’s what he has to say: “The clearest benefactor of miles' injury is Ha Seung Jin, who should put up a consistent 12/8 with 2 blocks.” Of course, he’s kidding.

Thanks everyone for the great questions!


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who do you think gets the better of an AI for TMac/Iggy trade?

12:25 PM  
Anonymous Charlie said...

AI is playing "Almost Insane" right now, and shouldn't taper off too much. TMac isn't as valuable no matter what format you play in, not even considering injuries, which, of course, you have to. He's already admitted he won't be 100% the whole season (or the rest of his career for that matter). His injuries are the long-term, nagging, "hope it doesn't hurt too bad when i wake up" injuries. As for Iguodala, his production will go up as he plays more, but cmon man, Allen Iverson? We're talk about Iverson, man. Iverson (to be read "practice")

1:38 PM  
Blogger DM said...

It'd be tough to deal the #1 player around, but if you buy into buy low/sell high, it doesn't get much better than this. I agree that AI won't taper off too much, but I just refuse to believe he will continue to shoot 45% while taking 26 shots per game. It's just not going to happen.

As for McGrady, yeah, injuries are an issue, but he just likes for people to know that he's playing in pain. That's how he is. He usually fights through it well enough and perhaps I'm being optimistic but I say he misses less than five games from here on out, unless he gets another sort of traumatic injury. And you'll remember he started very slowly last year only to explode after that. The Rockets need to seriously turn it on and I think McGrady will perform to his expectations.

As for Iggy, as unremarkable as he's been, he's still #43 on the player rater, #52 on fantasy analyzer. So that means once he actually starts playing well, he could work his way into the top 30.

It's obviously a risky deal to trade away AI the way he's playing now, but sometimes you have to take a risk.

2:34 PM  
Anonymous Paul R said...

I would definitely take the "risk" and opt for McGrady and Iguodala over AI. First of all, Iverson has been MORE of an injury risk T-Mac over the years. McGrady has played in 75 games or more in five of the past six seasons, while AI has done so only twice in six seasons. Secondly, T-Mac is not much of a downgrade from Iverson considering they were probably both late first rounders. Also, the upside of Iggy is too hard to resist. He is already very solid and could blow up at anytime, especially if (when) Iverson or Webber goes down.

4:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

While there are at least 3 "J. Smith"s in the league, there is only one "JR Smith". It was already crystal clear who the questioner was referring to.

Also would you grab Ruben right now, or just wait and watch a couple games to see what he does?

5:08 PM  
Blogger Jeremy said...

Here's something to talk about. What about Raef LaFrentz. He's been horrible over the last five, averaging about five points and a couple of boards a game. Now he's seeing his minutes eaten into by the likes of Blount, Jefferson and Perkins.

Is it all downhill for Raef, or will he get back to form and average 11/6 with a block and a three?

Also, I have Nendad Krstic on my team and Zaza Pachulia just got dropped on waivers. I've heard that Zaza gets lots of techs (it's a 12-team 12 cat H2H league), but would he be worth swapping with Pachulia? I never win FG% since I have Kobe jacking 30 shots up per game. Nedad is supposed to break-out, but it seems like Jefferson is getting all his rebounds.

Also, what's your (anyone) opinion about Luther Head. He didn't get the start tonight, and certainly his minutes will cnotinue to decrease when Rafer Alston decides to come back. Currently, I'm a little worried about 3Points (which is strange, since I drafted and since dropped mike miller, james jones and damon jones). Head has been doing a good job the last few weeks, but should I switch to Sarunas? Any word about how long Tinsley will actually miss?


11:47 PM  
Anonymous Paul R said...

Great topics Jeremy... My quick takes:
Celtics: Raef is essentially done from a fantasy perspective. The Celts are 7-10 and looking to the future. That means giving the kids (Perkins/Jefferson) big minutes. Not only is the team looking to develop these youngsters, but Doc Rivers is beginning to see they may actually give the team the best chance to win NOW. Raef will retain limited value because of his threes and blocks, but will play more of a situational role going forward.
Euros: I definitely see Pachulia as the best of the young Euro-Centers (Nenad, Zaza, Primoz). He is averaging a double-double and is guaranteed playing time. Nenad is talented but loses minutes to veterans Cliff Robinson and Marc Jackson.
Luther Head: You probably want to take a wait-and-see approach with Luther. He is an excellent source of threes, but 30+ minutes will be tough to come by when Alston returns. Still, T-Mac is always an injury risk and if Head outperforms Alston in the coming weeks he may earn (and keep) the starting gig.

8:45 AM  
Blogger bv said...

wasn't Josh Smith in Atlanta at one point known as JR Smith? I thought he was so i thought i'd just clear it up.

as for patterson, if you've got a spot, grab him now. if not, wait. it's tough for me to say without knowing who you'd drop for him.

11:03 AM  

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