Friday, November 04, 2005

Weekend Preview: 11/4-11/6

Here comes the first weekend of regular season basketball action in … well … in a long time. And here at FBB we couldn’t be more excited. 25 games, three days, and we’ll start to see some separation in the fantasy basketball standings. Coming out of the gate strong is important for sure, but making that key pickup is even more important. This weekend is going to be where statistical anomalies turn into real trends, and here’s what we’re going to be looking for:

How are those rookies doing?
Now, odds are you won’t be finding Chris Paul or Andrew Bogut on your waiver wire right now. And if you are, we’d like to join your league. But there are plenty of other rookies who are fighting for playing time and establishing themselves in rotations. Mid-first-rounders like Nate Robinson, Hakim Warrick, Johan Petro, Danny Granger and Joey Graham will either be high-risk pickups or complete waiver-wire fodder after this weekend.

We’ll also see a couple of rookies who were drafted in a lot of leagues prove to be worthless. For example, Channing Frye, who is having trouble finding the court with Larry Brown standing in his way. Raymond Felton is caught fighting for minutes with Brevin Knight – which was expected, but still.

Minutes, Minutes, Minutes
If you’re new to FBB, you might want to brace yourself, because if there’s one this we love to talk about (other than point guards), it’s minutes. And you’re gonna hear a LOT about minutes this year from us. Early surprises are Antoine Walker’s 42.5 mpg for the Heat, and Ron Artest seeing 40 mpg so far for the Pacers considering the depth of both teams.

Injury Reports
Shaq (surprise!), Baron (double surprise!) … does “I told you so” mean anything to you guys? These next few days will be pivotal to both these guys and their backups.

Free Agents Fitting In
Here in Washington, we’re quietly chuckling at the Lakers and their big offseason acquisition, Kwame Brown. But we’re also watching Raja Bell and James Jones in Phoenix, Bonzi Wells in Sacramento, and all the new faces in Cleveland.

Game of the Week(end)
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers, Friday, 10:30 PM.
Now, don’t laugh. The FBB version of Game of the Week has absolutely nothing to do with high-profile match-ups, future playoff teams, or anything like that. We’re looking for games that will be of interest strictly from a fantasy standpoint. Here are two teams with a bunch of question marks in terms of PT and the value of some of their big-name players.

For the Hawks, Joe Johnson found out pretty quickly that you pick up a lot more assists dishing to Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudamire than you do dishing to Josh Childress and Zaza Pachulia. Meanwhile, Al Harrington’s ankle injury throws another wrench in the ongoing Childress/Josh Smith/Marvin Williams

For the Clippers, the big question is if Chris Kaman will be able to recover from his 5-TO, 19-minute performance Wednesday night. Plus, who is this James Singleton guy who went for 14 and 10? Also we’ll be watching to see if Corey Maggette is back in the lineup, and if so, how effective he is.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

How well do you think Marvin Williams will do starting in place of Al Harrington next couple of games? Is he likely to get all of Al's minutes?

12:24 PM  
Blogger bv said...

I think you can expect Williams to get close to 35 mpg with Harrington out, and this is a great opportunity for him to show what he's got. A lot of folks slept on Williams in their drafts because of the crowded forward situation in Atlanta, and that still will be a concern when Harrington comes back. But for now, I think you can expect some nice numbers from Williams over the next few games and he's certainly worht starting.

12:32 PM  
Blogger DM said...

New Rule: From this point forward, no one associated with FBB will ever use the phrase "slept on," or any variant of that phrase, on this site. If I see it again, I will go Stephen Jackson on someone. Speaking of, did anyone think we were just a step or two away from another melee in the Pacers/Heat game last night? Jackson was just about to lose control against Wade in the first half. Ron Artest had to pull him aside to calm him down and tell him to shake D-Wade's hand. What a nut.

Anyway, Marvin Williams should be OK with Harrington out, if only because he's an active young guy who could grab some steals and blocks. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Tyronn Lue get a lot of extra minutes in Harrington's absence, giving them an actual PG presence, since JoeJohn can slide into the 2-3 slot.

12:47 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What are you guys' opinion on how much Mourning can produce with Shaq now gone for at least 2 weeks?

5:03 PM  
Blogger bv said...

well a lot of people slept on Mourning ... just kidding. Mourning is a fine pick-up if you're looking for blocks, but he has never averaged more than 25 mpg in his post-kidney era. still, hoping for something like 10/7 with 2 blocks - about what he put up in 18 games with new jersey last year - is reasonable.

really the biggest benefactors from a fantasy standpoint, though, will be antoine walker, dewyane wade and udonis haslem, who will all see more shots and rebounds.

5:11 PM  
Blogger DM said...

'Toine and Haslem are certainly big benfactors from Shaq's injury. Look at Miami's roster -- until Doleac comes back, Mourning is the only center they have. But he can't do much more than 30 minutes. So that means Walker and Haslem are the two biggest bodies they have. 'Toine has played 40+ minutes in both games so far and that's a trend I expect to continue. So for people who were able to grab him late, it's going to be a pretty sweet month. Except for your percentages, of course.

And speaking of percentages, Mourning will kill ya at the line the next few weeks. Career 70% shooter, but just 58% last year and 4-of-10 last night. Still, he's going to block enough shots to warrant a space in most lineups. I'm actually expecting numbers somewhat similar to those my man Brendan Haywood will put up.

6:42 PM  
Blogger p_bulatovic said...

Should i be worried about Lorezen Wright? I expected him to get starters minutes (which he is getting) and produce starter's stats (which he isnt).

Game 1: 2 and 6 on 1 of 8 shooting in 24min.

Game 2: 3 and 1 on 1 of 4 shooting in 35min.

I rebound in 35minutes for a center? At this point, Im terrified.

10:09 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wat do you guys think of J.Singleton? i wanna put him on my roster but only person i'd want to drop is D.Mason so i dun wanna do that til i see more of this guy.

have you guys heard anytin about him? i've been searchin through clipper articles and there's not much hype about him at all

8:52 AM  
Blogger DM said...

You should be worried about Lorenzen Wright because he's not a very good basketball player. At no point in his career has he ever been a very good basketball player. He's blocked just .8 shots per game in 26 mpg in his career, very lousy numbers for a center. He's a slightly above average rebounder, but does nothing else to help fantasy teams. Even with Stromile Swift gone, it's clear that the Grizzlies are better off going with Gasol at center for a good chunk of time and limiting Wright to around 30 mpg. He's bench material in deep leagues.

As for James Singleton ... ok, I'll be honest. I had never heard of the guy before a few nights ago. 23 boards in 54 minutes over two games will get you noticed though. Dunleavy will have to keep playing him if he keeps doing this, but as long as he's coming off the bench and getting less than 30 minutes he's an extremely risky play.

9:22 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

do you think josh childress will live up the all the preseason fantasy hype? or is it time to stop waiting and move for someone else?

9:48 AM  
Blogger DM said...

As someone who contributed to the Josh Childress hype, it's no surprise that I think you should hold on to him. He hasn't seen the 40+ mpg I was hoping he would, but Atlanta's been blown out of the water its first two games, so there's no need to burn him out. He certainly hasn't been scoring, but he does have 6 steals, a block and a 3 in two games. That shows the kind of all-around game he has. Depending on how deep your league is, you might want to have him on your bench for a while, but I certainly wouldn't go dropping him.

10:15 AM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Call me a fool, but I went ahead and dropped Childress this morning. I just see him as the odd man out in the ATL.

For starters, I think the Joe Johnson PG experiment won't last must longer; it's just not a good fit for him. Lue will probably begin seeing more minutes at the point, JJ will slide back to his natural 2 position and J-Chill will end up sharing time with him at the 2 and Smith/Williams at the 3. He will continue to average 30 minutes a game, but without a clearly defined role in the offense, his numbers will suffer. He is just one of many 6'9" swingmen on that team with similar skill sets.

Who did I pick up? Jose Calderon of the Raptors. Yeah, he could be just another one game wonder but I think he's in a much more advantageous situation than Childress: He could be the pass-first PG that Toronto has long been jonesin' for. Last year, Mitchell nearly went crazy trying to wean Rafer off of his shoot first mentality. Mike James is another scoring minded PG who I think will eventually try Coach's patience. But the early indications are that Calderon isn't and that he should see more PT as a result.

I did a little research on this kid before I pulled the trigger. Here's what little I could find: He was a stud playing in Spain where, in a recent poll, fans dubbed him the most talented Spanish player since Gasol. Although he tended to play off the ball in Europe, he earned the rep as a great passer and an efficient scorer who's accurate from long-range. In reading some of the articles out of Canada, he's quickly endearing himself to Raptor fans and (more importantly) the coach as well. That seems like a recipe for more minutes to me. If he's as good as the early indications suggest he is, you could be looking at a solid #2 PG here.

12:08 PM  
Blogger bv said...

well you're not gonna get me to call you a fool for making that move. Calderon might not last on your roster long, but it's a nice risk/reward pickup.

Chlidress, well, i was cold on him going into the year and i remain so. The situation in Atlanta right now is a complete mess (surprise), and I'm not sure who - if anyone - you can trust in that lineup right now.

12:13 PM  
Blogger MKD said...

Here's the real question... Calderon is playing great again tonight for the Raptors. I already have Mike James on my team. Do I drop James for Calderon? I can't have to Raps point guards on the same team can I? Hmmmm....

8:26 PM  
Blogger Biggs said...

So, the real question is why did everyone in my league sleep on Josh Childress?

9:21 PM  
Anonymous Carl said...

What do you all think of a B. Wallace for L. Hughes swap? I get Hughes, and already have Duncan and Chandler at C. I'm shortish on SG's, have K. Hinrich, M. Peterson, and B. Wells.

H2H league, 1 C starts


10:01 PM  
Blogger bv said...

I wouldn't go so far as to drop james to pick up calderon just yet. james will be a solid player this year, and those are tough to come by once spring comes around. If you've got a marginal player to drop for calderon, go for it.

As for a Wallace/Hughes swap, I'd say go for it. Only starting one center, and you've already got duncan and chandler? Hughes is no great shakes right now but he would be worth more to your team right now than wallace is.

11:41 PM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Re: James v. Calderon.

It all depends on what your team needs. If it's dimes and steals, I'd go Calderon; threes and scoring, James.

The vibe I'm getting out of Toronto is that Calderon is rapidly becoming part of thee regular rotation due to his unselfish style of play. He and James will probably wind up averaging about 30 mpg each and may even get some time in the backcourt together.

Bear in mind, however, that this is basically speculation on my part. James has a proven track record in the NBA, Calderon does not. But I'm desperate for dimes this year and Calderon seemed to be the best available option for them on my league's wire.

12:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

since stevie francis looks like he's gonna keep the gig at PG, does this make jameer nelson worthless? i'm not sure what to do with him, he's puttin up pretty slack numbers - lue's been promoted to start at hawks, thinkin about droppin nelson for him

9:55 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To me it looks like Lue got the start against Portland because Joe Johnson is by no means quick enough to guard Telfair. Atlanta also started some PF named Batista bc Marvin isn't ready to match up with someone with the girth of Z-Bo. Either as a part time starter or coming off the bench, I expect Lue to see a lot of minutes against the many point guards who are too fast for JJ.

1:59 PM  

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