Friday, November 11, 2005

Weekend Preview: 11/11 – 11/13

Here at FBB HQ, the topic of minutes comes up as much as any other statistic measured in the NBA. And now that the number of games played creeps into the 6 or 7 mark for most teams, this weekend we’re going to start to get a better idea of who’s going to be on the court and for how long. Here are a couple of guys that we’re going to be watching:

Ricky Davis (Fri v. SA, Sun. v. Hou)
Sure the 2 OT games have helped inflate his minutes so far, but don’t think we haven’t noticed Ricky’s robust 44 mpg, a league-high. All that time on the court has led to great fantasy value for Davis, and if he continues to see at least 35 mpg, his stats may return to where they were during his glory days with the Cavaliers.

Marvin Williams (Sat. v. Mem)
Sure the numbers aren’t particularly good, but look at the mpg for rookies this year, and there’s Marvin Williams coming in third with a respectable 28. That’s actually a very encouraging number, considering how unproductive he’s been on the court, but he looks like he’ll eventually be able to do the things that fantasy players love – shoot threes, get steals and make blocks. It’s far too early to rule out an Iguodala-like rookie year for Williams, depending on how the minutes shake out in Atlanta.

Udonis Haslem (Sat v. Cha)
After the hectic offseason in Miami, Haslem was largely an afterthought in many drafts this year. But with Shaq out, Haslem has re-established himself in the Heat lineup, seeing minutes right in line with what he got last year. He had a rough game last night at home against Houston, dealing with foul trouble, but the next week or so will have a huge impact on his fantasy value for the rest of the season as he proves his worth to Stan Van Gundy.

Where are the shake-ups going to come from?

This weekend is going to determine which teams are going to enter panic mode as the slide farther and farther down in the standings – both in fantasy and reality. Both of these can have serious impact on your fantasy teams. Real-life teams that are struggling are going to tinker with their lineups and start giving more minutes to bench players (teams to watch include Toronto and Seattle).

Meanwhile, only about 10 days into the season, some of the teams at the bottom of the standings in your league may start to panic. Now – while they’re still paying attention – is the time to strike with some trade offers to try and improve your team. Even if you can’t pull the strings on a nice trade, be sure to scour the waiver wires extra carefully this weekend as panic mode sets in and some slumping-yet-serviceable players hit the wires.

Game of the Week(end)
New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings (Sun. 9 PM)
Each team plays tonight as well, but both of them absolutely have to come out of the weekend with at least one win. Without it, the Knicks would be 0-6 and Larry Brown might quit on the spot. I kid, of course, but fantasy owners with Knicks on their roster have to be watching this team very closely to see how the PT shakes out. As for the Kings, a winless weekend would put them at 1-6, and the trade rumors will start flying – and that’s always exciting.

12 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting that you guys mentioned Ricky Davis, I've been keeping my eye on him as a trade target, because I also think he should be getting better numbers with those minutes. I'm in a H2H league and I'm basically punting assists every week, do you guys think Andre Miller is too much to give up at this point for Ricky?

11:52 AM  
Blogger bv said...

regardless of your punting assists, that's a trade i would offer. But i don't know that the other guy would accept it. I'll put it this way - I've got ricky davis on my team right now, and if I was offered Andre Miller straight up ... i'd turn it down.

12:19 PM  
Blogger DM said...

C'mon, we all know that's because you have a man crush on Ricky Davis!

Seriously tho, this raises an interesting fantasy issue. You tend you get especially attached to guys you draft late who far exceed expectations and are sometimes reluctant to part with them even if you know you should. I'm not saying that I'd do the Ricky/Andre deal either, but it's something to think about.

2:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

haha looks like the opinions are pretty different about Ricky. How would you guys rank them against the likes of Iguodala and Josh Howard at this point?

5:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ricky Davis is erratic.

Andre Miller is a solid fantasy contributer year in and year out.
His only true weakness is three's but he makes up for that with his percentages.

9:56 PM  
Blogger bv said...

I'd probably rank those three like this:
1. Iguodala (solid, has huge hidden value)
2. Ricky Davis (we've discussed him already, obviously)
3. Josh Howard (when are his major minutes going to turn into major fantasy value!?)

3:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is up with Mike Dunleavy? He looks awful. He's putting up a horrible shooting percentage every night and now is loosing minutes. Is he hurt or did he just not practice all summer?

Also who is gonna win out at the Sun's g/f spot. Raja Bell looks to be a constant but at the other wing they have already switched from James Jones to Diaw to Barbosa.

11:03 PM  
Anonymous bublitchki said...

Regardless of who the starter is, it seems that both Diaw and Barbosa are going to get around 30 mpg. with Jones as the odd man out.

Based on some of the comments I've read, I think D'Antoni likes Diaw's energy on D and the glass while he likes Barbosa for his more explosive offensive game. I just picked up Diaw because his 6 rpg, 6 apg, 1.5 bpg averages helped to fill some holes on my squad (which just got even deeper thanks to AK47 hurting his ankle tonight) But if it's scoring and threes you need with a couple of dimes, Leandro's the better option.

12:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great work guys.

I just looked at the stats for the sonics-raptors game and do you thing i should drop childress for villanueva? i was following your childress comments on the earlier posts and his recent game makes me think the time might be here to get his replacement...

6:11 PM  
Blogger DM said...

I was very high on Childress coming into the season. He was great over the final 30 games of last season and showed a nice all-around game. I was quite happy to get him in the 9th round of my draft (12 teams). He's been on my bench all season, so he hasn't been hurting me, but I did dump him today in favor of Nick Collison.

His minutes are in serious decline and the Hawks are filled with swingmen. With Joe Johnson not playing the point anymore, it makes it extemely crowded. I figure that I liked him more than anyone else in my league before the season and now that he's been so bad, he's not on anyone's radar. If I want him back, I'm pretty sure I'll be able to grab him.

I'm still not sold on Villanueva. Great line today, but those stats were inflated due to OT and horrible, horrible defenses. If he can crack the starting lineup I would be very enthusiastic. So if you're grabbing him instead of Childress to stash on your bench, that's a very reasonable move. But I still wouldn't feel comfortably plugging CV into my active lineup yet.

7:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

do you think collison will keep up this stat line from the recent game? or have enough minutes to continue posting these numbers?

7:04 PM  
Blogger DM said...

Impossible to say, really. The Sonics were due for a shake up after three straight pathetic performances. We were there to see them lose by 41 to the Wizards and it was u-g-l-y. Reggie Evans is a great rebounder but brings nothing else to the table. Collison is no great shakes himself but he's got more skills. He's part of the Zach Randolph/Mike Sweetney PF mold who won't really help too much in steals or blocks but can rack up rebounds and shoot for a high percentage. He played 43 minutes today, the Sonics won, so Bob Weiss might stick with what worked. And so if Collison stays hot, he could be worth keeping around.

7:13 PM  

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