Thursday, November 03, 2005

It’s Still Far Too Early to Worry, But If You Really Want to Worry…

Worry some about Kyle Korver. In one game, anything can happen. In two games, anything can happen as well, but you can start to try to pick out some trends. And here’s a trend to look at for the 76ers – it’s all AI and C-Webb. Over the first two games of the season, the Sixers have attempted 171 shots. A whopping 97 of those have come out of the hands of Iverson and Webber. That’s just about 57%, which isn’t leaving much for anyone else. We all know that AI is one of the great chuckers in the league, but people might not realize that Webber is as well. His high assist totals sometimes fool people, but this is a guy who has averaged 19 FGA per game over his career. For the record, only 10 players attempted that many shots per game last season. Put those two on the same team together, and it’s going to be tough for anyone else to get involved.

This isn’t really a problem for guys like Andre Igoudala, Stephen Hunter and – when he gets back – Samuel Dalembert. Those aren’t guys that need to have plays run for them in the offense. They pick up their points out of other situations and are specialists in other categories. But Korver is a different story. If he’s not getting his looks from 3-point land, he’s worthless. Yeah, he averaged 1.3 steals last year and shot 85% from the line, but it was obviously his 2.8 3pg that made people think he was worthy of a 5th round choice in drafts this season.

Still, we stress that it’s early. Korver did manage to hit 2 of 5 from long distance on opening night, and though he got shut out in last night’s game, it was a blowout, one in which he played just 17 minutes. There were just six instances last year where Korver totaled two or fewer 3s in back to back games, which is what he’s done in the first two games this season. But those are the ups and downs you have to live with when you draft a one-category specialist. He also hit four or more 3s in 27 games last year. These things come in bunches. It’s not like the first two games have been good for the Sixers – a devastating choke at home against the Bucks and then a solid ass-kicking by the Pistons. They are going to try to find some new things to work for them, and freeing up Korver for some open looks should be a top priority. But with AI and Webber around, even if he is open, who knows if he’ll actually see the ball?

One other quick note…

--I’m not going to tell you not to pick up guys like Delonte West or Smush Parker. You know that I am all about grabbing those point guards when the opportunity presents itself. And if you have a roster spot to play with, by all means go for it. But you know better than to expect those kinds of numbers on a regular basis. I’m a fan of West, but the Celtics aren’t going to score 114 points often and West won’t be a top assist man, although he could be a very nice source of steals and blocks (for a guard). And the Lakers won’t play OT games all the time. So just temper your expectations.

11 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What do you think about Chris Duhon's chances of consistently producing good numbers?

10:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

should we begin worrying about bibby yet?

10:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am picking up Delonte. I'm in a pretty deep league so I only am dropping Martell Webster to do so. I'm also considering dropping Collison to add Smush. Honestly what do u guys think we can realistically expect from Smush in that offense? He's not gonna average more than 4 assists, but I think he'd have to be somewhat valueable being that McKie and Sasha are Phil's only other options

Also I have Bibby and you're right. He does look awful right now.

11:04 AM  
Blogger bv said...

it is NOT time to worry about Mike Bibby. I'd say that he needs to have around 4-5 bad games before you can start to legitimatelly worry about such an established vet.

11:09 AM  
Blogger DM said...

First, Chris Duhon. As someone who spent plenty of time in college focusing loads hatred on Chris Duhon, you have to give him credit for an amazing performance last night. But I'm still skeptical that he can be a consistent contributor. If Hinrich misses some time, he obviously has a much better chance to do so, but Scott Skiles is a frustrating coach for fantasy players. Last year Hinrich was the only player to average more than 29 mpg. Perhaps Duhon will assert himself more in his second year, but even going back to college he was someone who never really looked for his own shot. It's hard to think he'll be much more than a #3 PG for fantasy teams if everyone on the Bulls is healthy.

Do not worry about Mike Bibby. Repeat, do not worry about Mike Bibby. He will be fine.

11:10 AM  
Blogger bv said...

Duhon ... well, if you've got a spare roster spot right now, i'd say he's worth a pickup. But remember, one game does not a season make, and if you did your research all summer and decided that somebody else was better than duhon ... are you gonna second-guess yourself this quick?

11:13 AM  
Blogger brent said...

how about tj ford? think he's for real?q

6:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not ready to hop aboard the TJ bandwagon just yet. Yeah, he'll probably clock more dimes than your average street corner weed dealer. He'll also get you some steals and slightly more boards than your average PG. But his liabilites in other areas concern me.

Unless he figured out how to take his game to another level during his year away from the NBA, he (1)is pretty prone to turnovers; (2)won't get you many threes and (3)will drag down your overall shooting percentage. I see him as kind of a Brevin Knight type with fewer steals and more boards.

11:41 PM  
Blogger bv said...

well, it depends on what you mean by "for real." I mean, he won't average 19 and 10, but to expect something like 14 and 7 with about 5 boards, a three and a steal with pretty poor FG%, is pretty reasonable. He's a great PG2 but probably a stretch as a PG1, and he's got injury risk.

11:52 PM  
Anonymous Sumo said...

Man am i concerned about Jason Williams. Yes, he's only played 2 games but he has played horrible ball and i read a report that Van Gundy said that he wouldn't be looked upon as an assists man. Not that i used a high pick on him but is he one of the first busts of the season?

11:31 AM  
Blogger bv said...

i think you've got every reason to be concerned about jason williams. but, it's still too soon to drop him or anything like that. at this point, stash him on your bench until further notice.

12:15 PM  

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