Monday, October 03, 2005

2005 Fantasy Tiers By Position: Point Guards

Longtime readers of FBB know that we put a huge premium on point guards. They are – with a few exceptions – your single greatest source of assists. No other fantasy category is so dominated by a single position. Blocks can be found from centers, power and small forwards. Three pointers can be found from shooting guards, point guards, small forwards, even some power forwards and centers. But assists are different. Of the thirty leading assist men, only four are non-point guards. Only one non-PG (LeBron James) is even in the top 15. You don’t just want a couple point guards on you team. You need them.

Tier One
Dwyane Wade, Allen Iverson, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Kidd.

A point guard who can contribute in areas other than assists and points is such a huge benefit to fantasy teams. All of these guys will help in non-traditional ways. Wade helps in blocks and FG%. AI dominates steals and points. Kidd’s rebounds are huge, and Gilbert puts up terrific all-around stats. All of them are reliable as long as they’re on the court, and all should be gone by the middle of the second round.

Tier Two
Stephon Marbury, Mike Bibby, Steve Nash, Baron Davis.

The second tier of point guards are in some ways more reliable than the first tier, because neither Marbury nor Bibby are much of an injury risk. We also put Baron Davis in this tier, although he really deserves a tier of his own. If he’s healthy all year, he’s a top-5 player. But he won’t be. These are the best of the “traditional” point guards, who will help mostly in assists, threes, steals, and points.

Tier Three
Steve Francis, Chauncey Billups, Kirk Hinrich.

The third tier is a real mixed bag. Francis posted a career high in assists last year but he’s going to be playing the 2 this year. Billups doesn’t do anything spectacularly other than 3’s, but that’s enough reason to have him on your team. Hinrich had a disappointing season last year, not improving on his numbers much from his rookie year, but is as solid as they come for a PG. If you don’t have any point guards by the time these guys are off the board, you could be in trouble.

Tier Four
Andre Miller, Rafer Alston, Jason Terry, Jason Williams, Tony Parker.

The fourth tier of PG’s all come with question marks, be it attitude, playing time, or playing style. They’re all great 2nd PG’s, but if you get stuck with one as your top PG, you’ll want to pick another one with your next pick.

Tier Five
Deron Williams, Raymond Felton, Chris Paul, Luke Ridnour, Damon Stoudamire, Jamaal Tinsley, Marko Jaric, Damon Jones.

Here’s where fantasy teams get defined. All of these guys are high-risk high-reward. All of them are entering new situations, be it on their old team or a new team, and many have struggled with injuries. Make the right pick here, and you’ll coast in the PG categories. Pick wrong, and your team could be saddled with a below-average player that you can’t just release, but that nobody wants in a trade.

Tier Six
TJ Ford, Jameer Nelson, Sebastian Telfair, Shaun Livingston, Bob Sura

These guys are all late-round picks. They’ll be drafted but could be on and off the waiver wire all year long. If you can afford to spend a pick on one of them, by all means, go for it.

Tier Seven
Brent Barry, Earl Boykins, Chucky Atkins, Sam Cassell, Devin Harris, Delonte West, Derek Fisher, Jeff McInnis, Tyronne Lue, Mike James, Moe Williams, Aaron McKie, Sasha Vujacic.

All of these guys could – could – be valuable at some point this year, but right now you just can’t spend a draft pick on them. Mostly backups, it’ll take an injury of two for any of them to have value.

Tomorrow: Shooting Guards.

10 Comments:

Anonymous chuck p said...

what about dan dickau? now that hes in boston...

4:24 PM  
Blogger bv said...

good point. dickau should be somewhere around the sixth or seventh tier. he's shown that, with 30 mpg, he's an ok fantasy option. but i don't see him getting more than 20 mpg at most in boston.

5:06 PM  
Blogger p_bulatovic said...

Also, now that Dickau is in Boston, i think it's safe to say that Marcus Bank's no longer will be. If he is waived/traded to a team where he gets minutes, what would you expect, and is he worth a late pick (if he is moved prior to the draft?) ?

6:26 PM  
Blogger bv said...

well i don't know that you can assume that banks will be moved. but even if he is, i can't see him moving into a situation where he'll get the 30+ minutes he need to be worth drafting. i mean, he's never proven himself, and every team out there seems like they're set at point, at least for the time being.

10:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i think livingston and telfair should be higher than sixth tier, they both are very likely to start and get 30+ minutes

11:01 PM  
Blogger p_bulatovic said...

Your right about Banks, but i know that there have been rumours swirling for months that he was going to be traded, but then again, thats why they are just rumours.



I doubt that Livingston would start over Sam Cassel, barring an injury.


By the way, you guys have a great blog here.

11:54 PM  
Blogger bv said...

telfair and livingston, well, you could make a case for both of them. but the presence of cassell and the fact that there are 3 legit pg's in portland played a large part in our bumping them down a notch.

as for banks, exactly. rumors are just that. but thanks for the kind words!

12:18 AM  
Blogger DM said...

i have to weigh in on my favorite topic, point guards. dickau had his moments last year when he saw 35+ minutes on a team with absolutely no scoring options. now he's in a super-crowded point guard situation behind pierce, davis, jefferson and lafrentz as scoring options. but the boston point guard situation is certainly one to follow in the preseason.

as for telfair and livingston ... unproven, no 3pointers, crowded backcourts. even when telfair got plenty of PT in the last month of the season -- around 33 mpg or so -- he still ranked just 116th on the player rater in the last 30 days of the season. he's simply below average, at best, in every category but assists. for now, at least.

12:57 AM  
Blogger p_bulatovic said...

How would you change Rafer Alston and Mike James' ratings now, after the trade?

4:17 PM  
Blogger bv said...

well first of all, a big thank you to the raptors and rockets for waiting until the day after we do our pg rankings to make the trade.

Regardless, this is a huge bump to James' value. Though I'd be surprised to see him get more than 5 assists or so, he should easily hit 2-2.5 three pointers and put up close to 17 points. He replaces Alston in the 4th tier.

I love this trade for the Rockets. If they use Alston like Miami did in '03, he'll still have some fantasy value, particularly if Sura misses much time (which he might). He's definitely worth drafting, and is probably the first Tier Six PG I'd take.

4:46 PM  

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