Wednesday, October 12, 2005

2005 Fantasy Basketball Busts

Knowing who to draft, obviously, is important. Equally important is to know who (whom?) NOT to draft. The guys listed below are guys that we feel might be over-valued, which isn’t to say that they shouldn’t be drafted, but you should let them slide past their “projected” spots for a few rounds. Most of these guys are long-time veterans who are losing these luster – others are overhyped young’uns. Each are dangerous.

PG: Sam Cassell, LAC – Cassell was no doubt a disappointment last year both for fantasy owners and his real-life owners. Now that he’s been shipped to the Clippers and handed the starting job over Shaun Livingston, some might expect a rejuvenated Cassell. Don’t be fooled – he’s simply holding the spot for Livingston, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the youngster starting by Thanksgiving. Other potential busts: Jamaal Tinsley, Mike James.

SG: Eddie Jones, Mem – This is it for Eddie Jones as far as fantasy value goes. In an ideal situation last year, getting 35 mpg as a third/fourth option with plenty of outside looks, only his three-pointers really kept him off the waiver wire. This year, expect no more than 25-27 mpg, and a spot on your bench until he proves himself worthy. Other potential busts: Michael Finley, Ben Gordon.

SF: Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Sac – Back in his heyday, Abdur-Rahim was probably overrated as a fantasy player, putting up some of the emptiest 20 and 10 seasons this side of Zack Randolph. Now that he’s getting older, on a team where he’s no better than the fourth option, and competing for playing time with Kenny Thomas and Corliss Williamson, we’re very happy to wait until the 6th or 7th round before considering him. Other potential busts: Mike Dunleavy, Darius Miles.

PF: Juwan Howard, Hou – I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know with Howard. His value is borderline at absolute best. He might go in the last couple of rounds but I wouldn’t even spend a pick on him there. His health and playing time are both in doubt, and there are much better risks to take late. Other potential busts: PJ Brown, Keith Van Horn.

C: Michael Olowokandi, C – We’ve got a saying here in Washington: Fool me once, shame – shame on you. Fool me twice … uh … I won’t get fooled again! Olowokandi has been fooling fantasy players just about every year, and now, with a rotation at center and a coach he’s off on the wrong foot with, Kandi man has finally given us a reason not to draft him this year. Thanks, Mike! Other potential busts: Eddy Curry, Joel Przybilla.

Anyone else out there that some of you guys think are overvalued?


Blogger Mike Plugh said...

I have a guy. I hesitate to call him a bust, but I think the expectations, from a fantasy perspective, are way too high every single year for Jermaine O'Neal.

1. He only produced points, rebounds, and blocks. His other stats are generally weak for a power position.

2. He also gets hurt at least twice a year. Bad back. Bad ankle. Bad knee. Bad temper. Whooping cough. He's super tough when he's on the floor, but there's always a chance he'll miss a game or 5 unexpectedly.

The thing is, if he was regularly picked in the 5th round you'd feel happy to get him. Someone always takes him in the 2nd or 3rd round and I can't remember the last fantasy team he was on that won the title.

7:03 AM  
Anonymous nightkid said...

I agree with most of your picks. However, I can't agree that Mike James is going to be a bust. He's picked in the last rounds anyway, and he probably has the starting job. I don't see Jose Calderon doing anything this year, neither is Alvin Williams. It's only that Jalen can play some PG, and maybe Jalen will take some of the value away from James.

Another bust at PG would be Damon Stoudamire. Bobby Jackson is a good player, and he's going to take a lot of minutes away from Damon. He's not going to be able to shoot freely in a much more stacked Mem lineup than the Por lineup (remember the 50 pt game?)

10:07 AM  
Blogger bv said...

Here's my thinking on Jermaine. He's stats are very similar to Tim Duncan's, with a few less boards but a better FT%, and they've got about the same injury risk. I'd feel happy taking him in the 2nd - and thrilled to have him in the third - but that's why all fantasy drafts are different. Those are good points though.

As for Mike James, if he is drafted in the late roudns, then yeah i'd agree he won't be a bust. But i'm worried that people will overvalue him and take him as early as the 7th or so, which is way too early.

10:41 AM  

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