Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft – Round Three

(For rounds one and two, check the previous post)

Players already on the team are in parentheses.

Team A: Ray Allen (Kevin Garnett, Peja Stojakovic)
Team B: Ron Artest (Lebron James, Shaquille O’Neal)
Team C: Baron Davis (Dirk Nowitzki, Yao Ming)
Team D: Chris Bosh (Shawn Marion, Stephon Marbury)
Team E: Ben Wallace (Tracy McGrady, Jermaine O’Neal)
Team F: Manu Ginobili (Amare Soudamire, Mike Bibby)
Team G: Steve Francis (Kobe Bryant, Elton Brand)
Team H: Dwight Howard (Tim Duncan, Steve Nash)
Team I: Joe Johnson (Andrei Kirilenko, Jason Kidd)
Team J: Chauncey Billups (Dwayne Wade, Vince Carter)
Team K: Pau Gasol (Allen Iverson, Paul Pierce)
Team L: Lamar Odom (Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller)

Round three of our mock draft is arguably the most important round. The first two rounds have put the top talent on your team. The third and fourth rounds will dictate how the rest of your draft will go. A team that is weak in a category after two rounds might be a coincidence. A team that is still weak in those categories after three rounds is a problem. Take, for example, the case of team J, who after three rounds has maybe 1.5 blocks per game to his name. He will need to reach for size at some point in the draft – maybe not in round four, but in the middle rounds he will certainly have to take someone whose strength is blocks, perhaps well before he should be drafted. You don’t want to be put in the position of having to consider drafting Adonal Foyle or Theo Ratliff. Making the right moves here will save you from that fate.

The other important thing to note is that in the third round, we see the end of the third tier of players. DM and I agreed that this drop happens right around where Steve Francis was drafted in our mock. The drop from him to Dwight Howard is pretty significant. While you can make arguments that maybe Joe Johnson or Lamar Odom belong in that third tier, everyone taken after Francis at least makes you hesitate before you pick them.

So after three rounds, which teams look best? I think Team A looks pretty strong, with three players who could have been first round picks last year, as well as the best overall player in the game. Team B certainly has a ton of upside, but after LeBron he took two major question marks. Teams picking in the second half of the first round certainly appear a lot weaker than the teams with earlier picks. The teams with the earlier picks not only got their pick of the top tiers, but also got two of the third tier players. This might even out over the next couple of rounds – we’ll see later this week. Tomorrow, the fourth round.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

dear sir,

Why do you think chris bosh as more valuable than dwight howard? Is not the latter perhaps more valuable since he's being predicted as amare stoudamire-like kind of player? He's numbers are even more impressive than amare's during his rookie season? could you explain further? tnx. avid reader of your blogs

10:11 PM  
Blogger bv said...

Admittedly, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard are pretty close in value, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Howard ends up with better numbers than Bosh this year. But 2 reasons I could give you for picking howard first are:

1) Bosh has done it two years in a row. When drafting early, risk is a HUGE concern. Not to say that Howard is a risk, but Bosh is less of one.

2) The teams around them. The Raptors are going to count on Bosh to be their #1 scorer alongside Jalen Rose. Howard will have to fight with Francis, Hill, Dooling, and others to get his shots.

Hope that helps!

10:22 AM  

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