Monday, September 26, 2005

2005 Fantasy Basketball Mock Draft

Is it ever really too early to do a mock draft? Absolutely not. Especially with training camp starting next week, and the season only about a month away. So what we’re going to do is spend this week going through a mini-mock draft. Today we’ll do rounds one and two, and we’ll do one round a day for the rest of the week. After six rounds, it’s really far too early to tell who’s going to go where. But hopefully we’ll give you an idea of how you can expect the first few rounds to shake out, so you can start targeting certain players.

Here are the rules we’re going by. It’s a 12-team league, with PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util as the positions. We’re also trading off picks by team – so if I pick for a team one round, then DM picks for that team the next round, so that the teams aren’t necessarily shaped by just one person’s views. Pretty simple, right? Anyhow, let’s get started with the first two rounds:

Round One

Team A: Kevin Garnett
Team B: LeBron James
Team C: Dirk Nowitzki
Team D: Shawn Marion
Team E: Tracy McGrady
Team F: Amare Stoudamire
Team G: Kobe Bryant
Team H: Tim Duncan
Team I: Andrei Kirilenko
Team J: Dwayne Wade
Team K: Allen Iverson
Team L: Gilbert Arenas

The first round went – pretty much – right down the list of our overall player rankings. There are two pretty big drops in the first round, from pick two to pick three, and from pick nine to pick ten. KG and LBJ are the unquestioned top two, especially with Nowitzki no longer qualifying at center. At three, though, you could make an argument foe Dirk, Marion, McGrady, Stoudamire, or maybe even Kobe or Tim Duncan. After Kirilenko was a clear cut choice to us at nine, we really felt there was another drop-off at ten, where Wade was a decent choice but really there are 5 to 7 players who could all be a possibility there.

Round Two (Players already on team in parentheses)
Team L: Brad Miller (Gilbert Arenas)
Team K: Paul Pierce (Allen Iverson)
Team J: Vince Carter (Dwayne Wade)
Team I: Jason Kidd (Andrei Kirilenko)
Team H: Steve Nash (Tim Duncan)
Team G: Elton Brand (Kobe Bryant)
Team F: Mike Bibby (Amare Stoudamire)
Team E: Jermaine O’Neal (Tracy McGrady)
Team D: Stephon Marbury (Shawn Marion)
Team C: Yao Ming (Dirk Nowitzki)
Team B: Shaquille O’Neal (LeBron James)
Team A: Peja Stojakovic (Kevin Garnett)

In the second round, we started to drift away from our overall rankings. As much as we like to preach the idea of taking the best available player in the first few rounds of the draft, sometimes you just can’t. For example, for team H, was Steve Nash really the best player on the board? Probably not. We had ranked Elton Brand ahead of Nash, but with Tim Duncan already on the team, Nash was just a better complement than Brand. Granted, we didn’t have to go very far down our board to find a nice #2 man for Duncan, but nonetheless we strayed from the “draft the best player” strategy.

By the end of round two, all of the top players at the scarcity positions – PG and C – should be off the board. We all know that Shaq is gonna kill your FT% and miss some time, but still, he shouldn’t slip to the third round. One thing to note about the second round is that there was never a huge talent drop. Really, Peja Stojakovic has just as much potential this year as Paul Pierce does. It’s also interesting to note that almost every player here was at one point in their careers a first-round fantasy pick, with a few exceptions. Tomorrow – Round Three.


Blogger Mike Plugh said...

Nice picks. I'm lining up to draft in the next few days, and I have the #5 pick in a 10 team Yahoo league. We use 3's as one of our 9 cats.

I'm debating between Marion, if he's available, and T-Mac.

I think your picks are strong, but one thing stood out to me in Round 2. Jermaine O'Neal picked that high is trouble, to me. He's basically a 4 cat player who always finds a way to sit out. Any reasoning on why someone should risk a pick in the 2nd round?

Thanks guys!

7:44 PM  
Blogger bv said...

well first off, if Marion is there at five, take him and don't look back.

as for jermaine o'neal, with artest et al back in the fold this year look for him to return to his '04 levels. sure he's only 4 categories, but he's huge in blocks, and those are often tough to come by. as for being a guy who "always finds a way to sit out", before last year, he played in 78, 77, 72, 81, and 70 games. That's not bad at all.

11:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i was debating over whether to pick iverson nask or kidd

im leaning toward kidd, iverson, then nash in that order

9:22 PM  
Blogger bv said...

Well it's hard to help you pick between those three without knowing who else is available at the time, who you chose in the first round (i'm assuming you're talking about a second round pick here) and other things like that. But personally, I like AI the best out of those three.

9:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Im going to draft in the next days in a 12 team leauge(competitive). I have the #12 pick. Im not really sure where to go with this. Im thinking to get a guard and a forward. Do you agree? Either Kidd and Jermaine Oneal, or Pierce. Help me out here with this 12th pick.

1:24 AM  
Blogger bv said...

I really like Brad Miller as a pick at 12/13. Matching him up with the pg of your choice (in this case, Kidd, it seems) would be a fine move.

10:45 AM  

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